The anger in Bulgaria is palpable, but Bulgarians remain unable to erupt into a mass movement. As long as they are divided, the government will enjoy stability. And the battles for water, justice and transparency need more fighters.
Is it possible for Bulgarians to be so fed up with corruption and nepotism that they will rise up in radical protests like in Nepal, which caused early elections and cost thousands of lives? Hardly. In recent months, a lot of resentment and social tension has accumulated, but they have remained scattered, without a common focus and leadership to unite them.
Various reasons for dissatisfaction
The lack of water in the regional city of Pleven, which has been tormenting a hundred thousand people for years, has become unbearable in one of the hottest summers. Under the pretext of order, security and the fight against corruption, political opponents - representatives of the PP-DB in the local government - are being punished. The court will assess the guilt of the first-term mayor of Varna, Blagomir Kotsev, and the former deputy mayor of Sofia, Nikola Barbutov, accused of corruption crimes. However, GERB mayors who have governed for several terms are practically untouchable.
The methods against political opponents are not new. In the US, President Trump sent the National Guard to the federal district of Washington, governed by a mayor from the Democratic Party, under the pretext of fighting crime and decline. He threatened to do it in other regions where Democrats also govern.
Weak calls for resignation
Fragmented anger is not a threat to the stability of the government. Bulgarian society remains divided and incapable of erupting into a mass movement like Bloquons tout (“Let's block everything”) in France. Every civil action in Bulgaria has a specific addressee - for the problems with drinking water in Pleven, they reproach the local government, the Water and Sewerage Holding and the MRDPW. The institutional address of the disenfranchised state is the prosecutor's office, the Ministry of Interior, but also the courts. However, the effect of the manifestations of dissatisfaction remains partial and fragmented, although it does shock the authorities. In some cases, it serves as political legitimization.
So far, calls for the government's resignation are heard only at the demonstrations against the euro, organized by the national populists from "Vazrazhdane", who will support the PP-DB's vote of no confidence against the "conquered state". Their colleagues from "Veličie" will do the same. And among the spearheads of the fifth vote, along with PP-DB, are MECH and the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS), known as the "group around Ahmed Dogan".
This support creates the illusion of a united opposition. But "Vazrazhdane" and "Veličie" will not appear at the gatherings in front of the Courthouse under the slogan "Democracy is in danger, justice is in a coma!" or “Let's take down the scoundrels' batons”. Nor will the PP-DB wave Russian flags against the euro and chant for the overthrow of the “Ursulas”, which would turn Bulgaria into a frontline state.
A lot of anger, few people
Civil initiatives are on different fronts - from empty fountains in many villages to calls for justice in front of courthouses in Sofia and Varna. But the real power is to merge into one wave, which is unattainable, although the lack of drinking water is a huge injustice. Mobilization against water scarcity is local; against custom-made justice and state bodies-batons - inevitable; anti-euro demonstrations are politically instrumentalized. The anger is tangible and multidirectional, but the government is not shaken. The protests that swept Bulgaria in the winter of 1997 were successful because the collapse of the state was felt by everyone.
It is difficult to raise your voice for a rule of law when you have access to drinking water 2-3 hours a day. If the state cannot guarantee a basic human right and provide a basic service, why should people trust it for everything else?
The loss of a loved one - in an accident, police arrest, hospital treatment - can turn the fight for justice into a mission. And the step from a personal cause to solidarity gives rise to organizations such as “Angels on the Road”, “Danaia Foundation” and others, which channel them into concrete actions. And although injustice is everywhere in Bulgaria, their actions are not supported by thousands of other victims.
Who will win from an early vote
“They know that if I see blood, I'm leaving”, said GERB leader Boyko Borisov on the occasion of the resignation of his first government in February 2013. Then the reason was the energy riots in Sofia, Varna, Blagoevgrad and other large cities, when thousands took to the streets.
Calls for radicalization today will not compensate for the lack of a common cause, nor the absence of a unifying leadership. Dissatisfaction is fragmented. Therefore, in the event of early elections, the benefits will be for the established political players - GERB and DPS-“New Beginning“, and a possible presidential project positioning itself as an “independent alternative“. In the scattered social energy, there is currently no critical mass to oppose them.
As long as citizens remain divided, the government will continue to enjoy stability. But the battles for water, justice and transparency need more fighters.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the DW as a whole.