In a regional moment fraught with tension, the signing of the Saudi-Pakistan Joint Defense Agreement on September 17, 2025 in Riyadh marked a turning point in regional security equations.
Following the Israeli strike on the Qatari capital Doha, the Gulf states have accelerated their efforts to redraw their deterrence and alliance maps, amid what appears to be declining confidence in the traditional American security umbrella.
In this article, I seek to explore the underlying motivations behind this alliance, analyze its security implications, and explore its geopolitical dimensions, in an attempt to understand whether the Gulf is entering a phase of “multiple security umbrellas“, redefining relations with Israel and its stance on its aggressive behavior, and changing the future of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
First, the new alliance cannot be interpreted solely in the context of bilateral cooperation. Rather, it must be understood in a broader context of strategic repositioning, where nuclear deterrence calculations, the balance of power in South Asia, and the growing Chinese presence through its allies intersect.
The new alliance reflects the awareness on both sides of the changing global balance of power and the emergence of new players, such as China, which reinforces the need for broader strategic partnerships that go beyond the norm.
The agreement opens the door to broader cooperation in the areas of training, armaments, and defense industries. It strengthens the ability of both countries to address security challenges and sends a message to regional powers and the United States that Saudi Arabia has its own capabilities.
Historical Relations
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have maintained close ties dating back to Pakistan's independence in 1947. Riyadh was among the first capitals to recognize Pakistan and provide it with extensive economic and political support.
Over time, the relationship has evolved into a comprehensive partnership in several aspects, with Saudi Arabia providing aid, loans, and grants to Pakistan, and Pakistan hosting thousands of Saudi military personnel for training.
The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is not limited to financial and political support, but also extends to building Islamabad's military capacity over the decades. Riyadh has contributed, directly and indirectly, to strengthening Pakistan's position as a regional power.
Strategic Reasons for the Alliance
Gulf Concerns Escalate After Doha Strike
The Israeli strike targeting civilian targets in the Qatari capital of Doha on September 9, 2025, sent a strategic shockwave through the Gulf. It was not just a fleeting military action, but rather a direct incursion into the heart of a Gulf state considered a prominent regional mediator. This has helped to accelerate discussions on Gulf security and collective deterrence, The Israeli strike on Doha has undermined regional stability, accelerating discussions on Gulf security and collective deterrence, and that the Israeli strike on Doha is an “attack on diplomacy itself,” which deepens the risks and puts pressure on reassessing regional security arrangements.
This tense environment has led Saudi Arabia to accelerate its efforts to build new security alliances that go beyond its traditional reliance on Western defense and seek partners with real deterrence capabilities, including undeclared nuclear capabilities.
The agreement with Pakistan reflects a shift in Saudi Arabia’s security doctrine, which now views the diversification of partnerships as a strategic necessity rather than simply a tactical option.
The defense agreement with Pakistan reflects the diversification of partnerships for Saudi Arabia's security, amid doubts about its dependence on America and the regional consequences of the Israeli attacks“ and “the signing of the agreement with Pakistan is a path to strengthening defense partnerships, while Gulf states' concerns about the reliability of the traditional American umbrella grow“.
This trend reflects Saudi Arabia’s realization that exclusive dependence on Washington is no longer sufficient to guarantee its security, especially in light of accelerating geopolitical transformations, Israeli instability, and declining American commitment to the Middle East.
The choice of Pakistan was not arbitrary. Rather, it was the result of careful calculations regarding its military capabilities, its experience in managing regional tensions, and its possession of an undeclared nuclear resource.
The agreement stipulates that an attack on either side would constitute an attack on both, based on Pakistan’s capabilities and armaments, without explicitly mentioning the nuclear component. Furthermore, “the agreement consolidates a long-term security partnership and confirms that any attack on one side will be considered an attack on the other, while strengthening deterrence mechanisms.
Pakistan thus appears to be an ideal partner for Saudi Arabia at this stage, combining nuclear deterrence, military expertise, and the ability to maneuver in a complex regional environment, making it a key pillar in any new security architecture in the Gulf.
Against the backdrop of the Saudi-Pakistani alliance, China has emerged as an undeclared third player, but with a strong presence through increasing military and technological support for Islamabad. This integration of Chinese technology and Pakistani expertise not only strengthens deterrence capabilities, but also positions Pakistan at the forefront of regional balance equations, making it an attractive partner for Saudi Arabia in light of growing threats.
In light of this expansion, many observers believe that the Saudi-Pakistani agreement “cannot be separated from the calculations of China, which seeks to expand its influence in the Middle East through indirect means.
The Saudi-Pakistani alliance therefore does not appear simply as a bilateral arrangement, but rather as part of a broader international landscape in which China's interests overlap and the balance of power in the Persian Gulf is reshaping, potentially redefining the roles of the major powers in the region.