DV: The Kremlin denies that Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace, but a number of experts and observers are categorical that this is another deliberate provocation that tests NATO's reactions. Do you agree?
Ruslan Trad: It is no longer about provocations, but about offensive actions. The provocations were in recent years, when information was collected on how the Alliance would react and how individual member states would react. The idea was to check not only the readiness of NATO as a whole, but also of individual countries.
Sending three planes armed with missiles over the capital of an allied country is not just a provocation. The idea is mainly to gather information, because when drones pass by, as happened in Poland, and planes, as happened in Estonia, positions are illuminated.
In the future, these positions can be attacked, as was attempted with the base in Rzeszow (in Poland), which is a logistics base for distributing weapons to Ukraine. Because of this attack (with drones) in Poland, there was a suspension of work in the logistics center there. This is a successful attack.
Secondly, along with these actions, other methods are also going on, such as hacker attacks. As happened in parallel with airports in Europe.
DV: How does NATO react? Enemy planes have been circling in the airspace of an allied country for 12 minutes, and consultations are only expected tomorrow.
Ruslan Trad: This is a symptom of the problems of the member states. It is as if the leadership of some of these countries is afraid to take concrete steps. What should have been done with the three fighters was to shoot them down immediately. The drones over Poland - too. Here comes the question of whether there is political will for this. We still see steps backwards, attempts to open a diplomatic door or not to close it. Secondly, the Alliance is slightly lagging behind in this area. It has heavy weapons, air defense systems, which, however, unlike, for example, the Russian ones, cannot shoot down small objects, such as drones. The eastern flank will only be armed with such weapons.
DV: So can we say that NATO's armament is high-tech, but clumsy?
Ruslan Trad: Extremely clumsy, and very expensive. You can't lift aircraft like the F-35 to shoot down a drone that is not precise, has a basic computer system, and is made of wood and foam for 3,000 dollars. And you build systems for billions, spend shells to shoot down these drones, and on top of that, you don't shoot them down completely. The Ukrainian army has an 80% success rate, NATO systems - 40-50%.
DV: What is this due to?
Ruslan Trad: The Alliance's preparation to deal with such attacks is not at the appropriate level. For many years, the topic of a possible conflict with Russia was avoided altogether. While the other side - Russia, China and Iran - was arming itself and preparing for various attacks against Ukraine and its allies, there was no unanimity among NATO member states on how to act, and the weapons that were being built and purchased were not adapted to the modern way of waging war, such as drones and hybrid attacks. If it is currently possible to carry out hacker attacks and attack airports and critical infrastructure, this is a big problem.
DV: Against this background, how much more frightening does the warning of German intelligence that Russia is preparing for an open conflict with NATO sound at the moment, and by 2030?
Ruslan Trad: I think it will be before 2030. That is what I am led to by what I hear from my contacts during meetings in Brussels. For years, there has been a division between the point of view of the military headquarters and the political circles in NATO and the EU. The military has been warning for ten years, since the first invasion of Ukraine. Political circles - sometimes because of elections, sometimes because of pro-Russian politicians - have wasted this time. During this period, Russia has been testing various systems - first in Syria, then in Ukraine. These systems can currently also be applied in a European context. That is why these deliberate offensive actions are a problem - information is being collected, positions are being illuminated. The clash could happen much faster if we look at the signals that come every week.
DV: On September 28, elections are coming up in Moldova, which are considered key. Can the pro-Russian wing break through there and is there a danger that the country will deviate from its pro-European path?
Ruslan Trad: These elections provide the pro-Russian factions in Chisinau with a greater opportunity to win than the previous ones. The population of Moldova is divided, Russian information operations have been successfully carried out over the past year. There is a great chance that we will see a victory for pro-Russian forces in Chisinau.
Speaking of Russian drones, they also flew over Moldova. It is significant that neighboring Romania almost accompanied them to leave Romanian airspace and carry out attacks in the Odessa region. If Moldova has a pro-Russian government, this will be very dangerous for the entire region, including our Black Sea region.
DV: Here we come to Bulgaria. What is Sofia's role and to what extent does the country have a clear foreign policy and military position and strategy?
Ruslan Trad: Bulgaria's role could be very important and fundamental, but for the moment the political elite that governs the country has neither the courage nor the desire to fulfill such a role. Bulgaria is one of the main Black Sea countries. But this is not even promoted by the country's representatives. Finland, for example, publicly expresses the position that it considers the security of the Baltic region to be directly related to that of the Black Sea. In Bulgaria, this is not spoken about publicly. Separately, Bulgaria, although one of the main countries supplying weapons to Ukraine, avoids this topic, which helps to spread both speculation and pro-Russian views.
DV: Question of 1 million: are Russian dependencies, incompetence or subtle political calculations behind this?
Ruslan Trad: We can include all three. However, we cannot underestimate the influence of pro-Russian circles in Bulgaria. Recently, there has been a dismissive attitude towards this aspect. The signals show that the people we talk about on the topic are neither exaggerating nor alarmists. Russia's influence is not just there, and those associated with pro-Russian circles do not even bother to express it. This is the reason why partners see Romania as a much closer partner, even though Bulgaria is a far more fundamental Black Sea state.
DV: "If you want peace, prepare for war", the Romans said. How can Europe prepare?
Ruslan Trad: Good processes are underway in this direction. European defense companies have started to receive more orders at the state level. We know that a significant part of the EU budget is also allocated for rearmament. But this process needs to be accelerated. We don't have that much time. Russia, Iran and China are leading, their societies are many times more prepared for conflict and separately they may lag behind Western armies, but their leaders are more prepared for escalation.
DV: Is the United States an ally?
Ruslan Trad: Not yet. But there is a growing retreat of European armies, headquarters and political leaders from the idea that we should rely on Washington for the defense of Europe. This is good news. Europe needed this stress. We need to have a strategic partnership, but not dependence.
Author: Alexander Detev