The tense situation in the Middle East, Israeli strikes on Doha and the lack of a decisive response from the US are making the Gulf states think about increasingly serious cooperation. Will an "Islamic NATO" be born?
Qatar could do almost nothing after Israel fired ballistic missiles at Doha two weeks ago. The targets were members of the Hamas terrorist group who were discussing a ceasefire proposal in the Gaza Strip.
According to media reports, Israel fired the missiles used in the attack "over the horizon" - they fly into the atmosphere and even leave it before returning to Earth. Therefore, Qatar had no way to defend itself from the attack - the Gulf country does not have the most high-tech air defense systems.
Israel's biggest ally, the United States, has a military base in Qatar and recently designated the country as a "serious non-NATO ally". However, this does not seem to have been enough to stop Israel from attacking Qatar. The United States may have known about the impending attack.
The United States as an unreliable partner
"The Israeli strike shakes the Gulf countries' opinion of their relations with the United States and brings them closer together," says Christine Diwan, a senior researcher at the Arab Gulf States Institute. "These oil monarchies are very similar. Such a direct violation of their sovereignty and security is anathema to all of them." So they are now more motivated to "seek greater strategic autonomy and are increasingly united around the idea of confronting the risks of being dependent on the United States," says Sanam Wakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at "Chatham House".
All this has led to discussions in recent weeks about forming an "Islamic NATO" - a defense organization for Islamic and Arab states that would operate in a similar way to the Western alliance.
Joint defense and intelligence sharing
At an emergency summit hosted by the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation last week, Egyptian officials proposed the creation of a joint task force for Arab states along the lines of NATO. And the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - said they would activate a clause in a mutual defense agreement signed in 2000 that says an attack on one member is an attack on all. The wording is similar to that used in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
After the initial emergency summit, the defense ministers of the Gulf countries held another meeting in Doha. They agreed to improve the exchange of intelligence and air situation reports, as well as to accelerate the implementation of a new regional ballistic missile warning system. Plans for joint military exercises were also announced. At the same time, Saudi Arabia announced that it was concluding a "strategic mutual defense agreement" with Pakistan and that "any aggression against one of the countries will be considered aggression against both".
"Islamic NATO" or another type of alliance?
However, the reality is different, experts say. "A NATO-style alliance is unrealistic because it would tie the Gulf states to wars that they do not consider relevant to their interests. No leader of these countries wants to be drawn into a confrontation with Israel over Egypt, for example", says Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the Institute for Security Studies at King's College London.
However, things have changed since the attack in Doha. "Security in the Gulf has long been based on the logic that you pay someone else to take care of your defense", Krieg explains. "This perspective is starting to change after the attack on Doha, but it is happening slowly."
Instead of an "Islamic NATO", one can rather expect the so-called "6+2 Format", explains Cinzia Bianco, an expert on the Gulf states at the European Council on Foreign Relations. This refers to the Gulf states, as well as Turkey and Egypt. Bianco believes that such a format is probably being discussed on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
"It is not really an Article 5-type agreement," she tells DW - the Gulf states' commitment to mutual defense is not as solid as that of NATO members. "It is more likely to be about collectivizing positions on security and defense, and perhaps most importantly, sending a message of deterrence to Israel," the expert commented.
Can the US be replaced?
The 6+2 format is a much more logical step than an "Islamic NATO", Krieg believes. Turkey is the Gulf states' most legitimate non-Western partner, and already has troops in Qatar. Ankara also has the ability to react quickly in the event of a crisis, the expert explains. "The situation with Egypt is more complicated. They have military power, but in some Gulf countries, the question is how reliable it is". Even if there is a prospect of a 6+2 format, however, this will happen slowly and discreetly, both Krieg and Cinzia Bianco believe.
"There are definitely other countries involved - such as Russia and China - that are ready to replace the US", believes Sinem Cengiz, a researcher at Qatar University for Gulf Studies. "However, it is unlikely that any external player will replace the United States overnight." According to Bianco, the Gulf states do not want such a thing. They still continue to rely on American military equipment. "Politically, however, there is a change - Washington is no longer perceived as the ultimate guarantor of security, but as a partner whose support is conditional. Gulf leaders are adjusting to the idea that the United States has interests, not partners, and are looking for another center of defense and security - something halfway between Iran and Israel."