Despite jubilant crowds in Gaza and Israel celebrating the Trump peace plan, distrust and alienation between Israelis and Palestinians remain high, and hopes for lasting peace are slim.
Israel and Hamas have agreed on the first phase of Trump's peace plan, but polls show that most Israelis and Palestinians don't trust each other or expect the conflict to be resolved permanently. The alienation is particularly evident in the data from a survey published in August by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem: 62% of Israelis surveyed agreed with the statement that "There are no innocents in Gaza". Among Jews with Israeli citizenship, the percentage is even higher - 76%.
"It strikes me that there is so little humanity"
"My biggest concern when it comes to Israel is the lack of empathy," Cory Gil-Schuster, head of the conflict resolution and mediation program at Tel Aviv University, told DW. "People don't even feel empathy for children, the elderly or the sick on the other side of the conflict," he says.
Since 2012, Gil-Schuster has regularly explored various controversial topics in his video format "The Ask Project". In street polls, he asks viewers questions of people in Israel and the Palestinian territories. For example, he asks the Palestinians whether they would approve of another action similar to the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the Israelis - whether the suffering of the people in Gaza gives them satisfaction.
As for empathy, a woman from northern Israel simply shrugs, which fills Gil-Schuster with sadness. "I worry about what this world is doing to us. It upsets me that there is so little humanity in relation to this topic.“
The absence of humanity after October 7, 2023
Palestinian political scientist Khalil Shikaki also believes that relations between the two sides have reached their lowest point. “In the last two years, there has been almost complete dehumanization - and both societies have reached a phase in which they respectively reject the other side.“
This development also has its repercussions on the tendency to make compromises in order to find a peaceful solution, Shikaki told DW. And he conducts sociological surveys, the latest of which show the great current skepticism: 69% of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and 88% of residents of the West Bank do not believe that Israel will withdraw from the Gaza Strip, even if Hamas lays down its arms.
At the same time, Shikaki points out that mutual trust should not be a condition for rapprochement, but can be developed in the course of the peace process: “If we wait for the Palestinians and Israelis to first trust each other, this will never happen“.
First steps on the long road to rapprochement?
But how could rapprochement be achieved after decades of conflict? Researcher Gary Mason from Northern Ireland compares the conflicts in Northern Ireland and the Middle East and notes to DW that in both cases there are controversial issues related to territory, identity and religion.
Excluding the extremists, both the Israeli and Palestinian sides hope for an end to the conflict. But even after the agreement is concluded, it could be another five or ten years before a lasting peace is achieved, Mason predicts. “In Northern Ireland, we had to work on the peace process for 27 years after the agreement was concluded.“
Cory Gill-Schuster believes that in the meantime many people have become accustomed to the conflict and have adapted to the situation. However, the right political communication could probably change this situation: “The first step should be a campaign that shows that both sides regret the mistakes they made, but do not want to continue in the same way, which is why action is needed. People need to be given a vision of what this could mean.
“A strong leader is needed”
But who could implement this strategy? In both Israel and the Palestinian territories, trust in their own political leadership is modest: in Israel, only a few are satisfied with Netanyahu's government. And the head of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, is almost devoid of legitimacy, as there have been no elections since 2006. According to recent surveys, 81% of those surveyed want him to resign.
Gil-Schuster, however, stresses that in the current situation, strong leadership is crucial: "You need a strong leader who can advocate for a change in mindset - primarily in your own country, but possibly in the other country as well. But I don't see anyone like that on the horizon," he says.
How realistic is the two-state solution still?
"Based on joint Israeli-Palestinian polls, it's clear that Israelis now have some inclination to change their position and support the two-state solution," Gil-Schuster says. And among Palestinians, the two-state solution is beginning to gain new support - although in polls two-thirds of respondents express doubts about its feasibility.
The Israeli government is categorically against an equal Palestinian state with full rights, and has recently stepped up settlement construction in the occupied West Bank.
Reunification despite spatial division?
In any case, the occupied West Bank is so torn apart by Israeli settlements that opponents of a possible Palestinian state believe it would be unrealistic, at least because of the lack of contiguous territory.
However, the example of Northern Ireland shows that this is not necessarily an obstacle to reconciliation. In the capital Belfast, there are still areas where unionists and republicans are separated by walls. “When the time comes, they will be demolished. But given the bloody conflict in Northern Ireland, 27 years is not a long time, says Gary Mason.