Iran once created its own "Axis of Resistance" against the US and Israel, for which it paid millions to terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. But Trump's Gaza peace plan created new realities, and Iran was left alone.
"Israel is not interested in escalating tensions with Tehran," Vladimir Putin told the Russian state news agency TASS on October 9 in Tajikistan. According to Putin, Tehran wanted to "work for peace". At the same time, the Russian president stressed that Iran should not have nuclear weapons.
Whether Israel's message is sincere, a strategically misleading move or part of Russian interests remains an open question, said Arman Mahmudyan, an international politics expert and professor at the University of South Florida. "Iranian media reported that Tehran had purchased Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets. If Russia really delivered them, it would be a sign of support for Tehran," he said.
"It is possible that Netanyahu is trying to convince Moscow not to deliver the fighter jets and that is why he said he did not want to attack Iran. I don't know if this is some kind of tactical game with Putin, but the two have known each other for years and Bibi himself (Benjamin Netanyahu – ed.) emphasizes in his memoirs that one should always approach Putin directly“, Mahmoudian also points out.
The war revealed a number of weaknesses
The twelve-day war in June, when Israel bombed numerous targets in Iran, revealed the weaknesses of the Iranian air force. The United States joined this war and bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. Last week, US President Donald Trump said that the Israeli-American strikes on Tehran were an important step on the path to a peace agreement for Gaza. Israel sees Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat. The Iranian leadership, on the other hand, does not recognize Israel and regularly threatens to destroy it.
Trump called on Iran to change its foreign policy course. In his speech to the Israeli Knesset, he said that there could be nothing better for the region than for Iran to stop supporting terrorists and recognize Israel's right to exist. Later in Egypt, Trump expressed his readiness to lift sanctions against Iran if Tehran agreed to talks. Iran was invited to the meeting in Sharm El Sheikh, but did not participate in it.
Chronic inability to make decisions
Iranian expert Mojtaba Najafi, who lives in Paris, speaks of a system that has “lost its ability to make decisions“. According to him, the regime in Tehran is facing complex crises and is unable to overcome ideological barriers that hinder diplomacy. In an interview with DW, he spoke of “belated pragmatism“ and says: “Since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979 until today, it has resorted to more rational moves only when it is already too late“.
There was also criticism in the Iranian media of the decision not to participate in the Sharm el-Sheikh meeting. Commentators recalled that Iran had even negotiated with Saddam Hussein, who in 1980 attacked Iran and unleashed a war that lasted eight years and claimed over a million victims. On October 14, Tehran reacted officially: a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry indicated in an official statement that actions on the international stage are not limited to physical presence, and that ending the war in Gaza is a priority for Iran.
“The ceasefire in Gaza has advantages and disadvantages for Iran“, believes Arman Mahmoudian. “The advantage is that for now the topic that has exacerbated the conflict between Iran and Israel, namely the situation in the Gaza Strip, has been removed from the agenda. On the other hand, if the peace agreement does indeed lead to the disarmament of Hamas in Gaza, the US and Israel, with the support of the Arab countries, could also apply it to Hezbollah in Lebanon.“
A dysfunctional axis of resistance?
The Shiite organization Hezbollah in Lebanon is part of the Iranian-backed “Axis of Resistance“ - a network of militias in the region that emerged in response to what US President George W. Bush once called the “Axis of Evil“.
The leadership in Tehran declares itself to be the core of the “true resistance against imperialism and occupation“. But this so-called "Axis of Resistance" cost Iran hundreds of billions of dollars and isolated it internationally. After the assassination of several key figures such as Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria in 2024, this network has almost completely collapsed.
"Syria is lost, Haniyeh was killed, and Hezbollah is eliminated. This strategy no longer works," Iranian defense expert Sayad Shirazi told the Azad platform in Tehran.
This criticism is now being openly expressed in Iran. Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former chairman of the National Security Committee in parliament, wrote on the X platform that 85% of Iranians would vote in a referendum to end Tehran’s conflicts with the rest of the world. “We have lost over $700 billion due to the conflict with Israel and the West. Turning the Arab-Israeli war into an Iran-Israeli war was the biggest lie in the history of the Islamic Republic“.
Investment in the air force
The inability of Iran-backed militias to prevent a potential direct war with Iran was highlighted during the 12-day war. Tehran has apparently realized that these armed groups have played no role, Arman Mahmudyan also points out.
Even if the political will in Tehran has not changed, the conditions in the region have already changed. Therefore, Iran will try to improve its military power, and in particular to equip its combat aircraft with modern fighter jets from China or Russia. They will probably be supplemented with longer-range missiles that will have a deterrent effect.
„What political decisions Tehran will make regarding Trump's offer for negotiations, however, is difficult to predict“, the international politics expert points out. „The most important means of pressure in possible negotiations remain those approximately 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, which the West still does not know exactly where they are.“