After the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky at the White House, both leaders spoke about the possibility that the Russian-Ukrainian war will end in the near future. The same thesis has been repeated by Ukrainian deputies for several weeks now. But can such predictions really be believed?
Politicians promise an end by Christmas
Since the beginning of autumn, a number of Ukrainian politicians - both from the opposition and the ruling party - have begun to predict that the fighting may end in the coming months, namely by the end of November or by Christmas.
These talks have become more frequent against the backdrop of the expected meeting between the presidents of the United States and Russia in Budapest. The US president said the two sides would discuss "how to end this inglorious war".
"We have come close to a possible end to the war. I tell you this with complete confidence. This does not mean that the war will necessarily end, but President Trump has achieved a lot for the Middle East and, using this wave, wants to end Russia's war against Ukraine," said Volodymyr Zelensky, summing up the results of his visit to Washington.
Expectations and cautious optimism
According to sources in the American publication Politico, Zelensky believes that the current offensive of the Russian army in eastern Ukraine may be the last in this war. He stated this to deputies from his party at a closed meeting in September.
The head of the Military Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR), General Kyrylo Budanov, commented on the possibility of a cessation of hostilities by the end of the year, saying that he "hopes for the best". However, he stressed that the two sides continue to adapt to each other and change their approaches.
Some deputies in the Rada are far bolder in their predictions.
The opposition believes in "soon peace"
Politicians in Ukraine have been making similar predictions almost since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, but in late 2024 and early 2025, these expectations intensified - especially after Donald Trump returned to power. He has repeatedly promised a "quick end to the war", although his original deadlines have long since expired, with no real impact on the front.
Back in February, former President Petro Poroshenko, leader of the opposition party "European Solidarity", said that parliamentary elections in Ukraine would be held on October 26, 2025. Since the Constitution does not allow elections during war, this meant that hostilities must end before that date.
Poroshenko referred to "sources in law enforcement agencies, the Ministry of National Unity, the Central Election Commission and the state printing plant "Ukraine", which is already calculating how many ballots will be needed".
"That is why I think the elections will be at the end of the year. According to the Constitution, both parliamentary and local elections should be held then," he said in an interview with Censor.net.
However, this scenario already seems unrealistic, because October 26 is in 5 days.
"The end of the war is near" - Yulia Tymoshenko
In early October, the leader of the "Batkivshchyna" party, Yulia Tymoshenko, stated that "the end of the war is not far off".
"Knowing certain information, I believe that the end of this war is near. We all hope for this very much and are working to make it happen," she told Ukrainian Radio.
The MP from "European Solidarity" Alexey Goncharenko also claims that "the end of the war is already visible on the horizon".
He pointed to two signs that, in his opinion, suggest a change.
First, the telephone conversation between Putin and Trump on October 16, which was initiated by Moscow. Goncharenko believes that the Kremlin feared that the White House might provide Kiev with long-range Tomahawk missiles and Typhon systems.
Second, according to US data, India has reduced its purchases of Russian oil by 50% under pressure from Washington, which is reducing Moscow's revenues.
"Russia is under pressure. And this means that there is a chance to put pressure on Putin and open the way to peace," summarized Goncharenko.
Similar predictions among the ruling party
Surprisingly, similar predictions also come from representatives of the ruling party "Servant of the People". MP Fyodor Venislavsky, Zelensky's former representative in parliament, said:
"I think there are a few months left at most. Let's put it this way: by the end of the year there is a real chance that all this will stop."
His colleague Yuriy Kamelchuk predicted that the fighting could be stopped by Christmas if a trilateral meeting between Zelensky, Putin and Trump takes place next month.
Another MP from the ruling majority - Maxim Buzhansky, went even further:
"I hope that by the end of November there will be a pause in hostilities. I am not talking about peace or agreements, but simply a cessation of fighting," he told the newspaper Telegraf.
Are there any signs of a real end?
As of October 20, 2025, Russia does not fully control any of the four Ukrainian regions (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson) that it annexed in its constitution in 2022.
However, Russian forces have acquired small territories in other regions that the Kremlin calls "buffer" - parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv regions.
Military experts have different opinions on whether this means the end of the war is approaching. However, everyone agrees that the key factors are Putin's will to stop the offensive and Trump's willingness to put pressure on him.
Signs of exhaustion - or illusion?
Analyst Alexei Melnik of the "Razumkov" Center claims that a turning point is indeed felt.
"This is not just intuition - there are objective indicators," he says. As examples, he cites statements by Trump in which the US president calls Russia a "paper tiger", hinting at its weakness.
According to Melnik, the Kremlin is depleting its stocks of equipment and reserves of volunteers. According to OSINT analysts, there are about 100 serviceable tanks left in Russian warehouses, and over 2,500 are damaged or unusable.
Pessimists: Moscow has no incentive to stop
Military and political expert Mikhail Samus of the New Geopolitics Research Network believes that the claims of "soon peace" are groundless.
"Putin is not ready to give up the goal of controlling the entire Donetsk region - something that is completely unacceptable to Kiev," he says.
Samus is convinced that Russia can fight for at least another year, because it has enough human resources and its economy is still holding up.
"Putin thinks he can fight all winter and into 2026. There is no sense of personal threat," the expert summarizes.
"The final round"
Military historian Mikhail Zhirokhov also sees no signs of an imminent end, although he admits a temporary lull in the winter due to seasonal conditions.
A BBC source in the General Staff of Ukraine uses a sporting metaphor:
"Now it's like the final round in boxing - both fighters are exhausted, but they are trying to deliver a final decisive blow."
In his words, this "final round" could last until the end of the year, and perhaps until spring 2026.
Ukrainian Command: Pressure Must Be Increased
Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrsky said on October 17 that the Ukrainian army was "successfully thwarting" the Kremlin's plans to seize key regions and settlements.
He added that the delivery of US "Tomahawk" missiles could significantly increase pressure on Russia and bring a "just peace" closer.