Ankara is watching the escalation of tensions in the Middle East with concern. Turkey fears an escalation of the conflict in the region, the strengthening of Kurdish groups and new waves of refugees.
Turkey maintains diplomatic relations with both the EU and the countries of the Middle East and has always sought to position itself as a mediator between East and West. This also applies to the conflict between the US and Iran, but so far without success. Washington was not deterred from attacking, and Iran did not budge.
In the latest statements of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, a certain amount of disappointment is felt after the diplomatic efforts made in recent years: according to Fidan, the war was probably only postponed. He spoke of a telephone conversation with Washington in late January: "They called me in the middle of the night", Fidan says. He immediately understood how dangerous the situation was and immediately informed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "We were expecting the outbreak of war or the first attack at any moment," says the top Turkish diplomat.
A complex conflict with many risks
Ankara fears that the war with Iran could quickly escalate into a conflagration that would engulf the entire region. Turkey shares a long border with Iran - some 530 kilometers long - and is now worried about the humanitarian, economic and political consequences.
Ankara sees the current war as a complex conflict with multiple risks: economically, it fears a rise in already high inflation, energy shortages and losses in the tourism sector; politically, it is concerned about both the uncertain changes in the balance of power in the Middle East and the possible renewal of the conflict with armed Kurdish groups in the region. And last but not least - against the backdrop of the bombings in Iran and southern Lebanon, Ankara must prepare for a new wave of refugees from both sides.
Turkey remains cautious
So far, neither the Incirlik air base, heavily used by US forces, nor the NATO radar station in Kurecik, Anatolia, have been attacked by Iran. Although a ballistic missile was intercepted by a NATO air defense system on Wednesday, Iran insisted that Turkey was not the intended target. Turkish sources close to the government also suggested that the missile had deviated from its course.
Turkey maintains neutrality and has stepped up diplomatic contacts with the United States, the European Union and Gulf states since the start of the war, urging all sides to return to the negotiating table before the war escalates. But these mediation efforts are currently bearing no fruit, says Sinan Yulgen of the Istanbul Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM). And since no negotiations are conceivable at this stage of the war, he interprets this diplomatic activity as an attempt to position Turkey for a later date.
According to government sources, Ankara is already working on developing a formula that could bring the warring parties to the negotiating table on an equal footing at some point.
Ankara faces a dilemma: the collapse of the regime in Tehran could lead to uncontrollable chaos in Turkey's neighboring countries. However, if the regime holds out and finds itself with strengthened positions after the crisis, this could also create new political uncertainties and conflicts in the future.
Ethnic tensions and Kurdish conflict
Some media outlets are already speculating that the US could use Kurdish troops as ground forces in Iran - which is also causing serious concern in Ankara. Although the resistance of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Turkey has been crushed and its sister organization in Syria, the YPG, has been weakened, arming militant Kurdish groups in Iran would trigger a new dynamic in the region.
According to Ankara's assessment, this could also jeopardize the process of rapprochement that has begun in Turkey with the PKK and other Kurds. That is why ethnic conflicts in and around Iran are considered the worst-case scenario.
A new wave of refugees?
Even during the war in Syria, Ankara took in millions of refugees from the neighboring country - despite its major economic problems. Now Ankara is trying to prevent a similar scenario with people fleeing Iran. According to media reports, there are plans to build refugee camps on Iranian territory. In addition, construction of the border wall with Iran has been accelerated in recent years.
However, neither the government nor experts currently expect an immediate increase in the number of refugees. Security expert Sinan Ulgen recalls the experience in Iraq and Syria in the 1990s and 2010s: it was only after civil wars broke out there that large refugee waves began.
So far, border authorities have not reported any major movements. If a refugee flow does occur, it is expected that not only people leaving Iran, but also more than two million Afghans in need of protection, who could head west from Iran, are expected.
Ursula von der Leyen's post sparks anger
A post on the X platform has fueled discussions about new refugee waves to Turkey. In it, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised President Erdogan's efforts to deal with migration. Many Turks interpreted this as a signal that the EU once again wants to turn Turkey into a "buffer state" or "gatekeeper" that must stop a new wave of refugees (from Iran) from reaching Europe at all costs.
The fact that the EU chief is so emphasizing cooperation in migration management has sparked speculation about secret concessions by Ankara that could turn the country into a final destination for millions of asylum seekers.