Comment by Konstantin Eggert:
Why did Donald Trump cancel his meeting with Vladimir Putin in Budapest? For me, this is the biggest mystery surrounding the reasons for the imposition of additional US sanctions against the Russian companies "Lukoil" and "Rosneft".
"Lukoil" and "Rosneft" in Trump's crosshairs
Just a few days ago, everything was, as they say, "in order": Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio were supposed to discuss the preparatory aspects of the impromptu meeting of their bosses. The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, albeit reluctantly, confirmed his readiness to arrive in Hungary, and Viktor Orban's propagandists began to trumpet the "diplomatic triumph" of the Hungarian Prime Minister.
After which, literally in an instant, everything changed. Lavrov and Rubio talked to no avail, the meeting was not just postponed, but canceled by the US President, Orban specifically "was late" for the EU meeting, not to vote for the new package of Community sanctions against Russia, but also not to prevent its adoption.
So, instead of discussing the fate of Ukraine at a friendly dinner, Putin had to read, for example, messages from India about how Indian refineries would abandon the raw materials of "Rosneft" by November 21 and "Lukoil".
The virtual reality of the Kremlin ruler
In fact, we cannot be sure that the Russian dictator reads this news. It is even possible that he is offered folders with completely different information - that the sanctions will cause only insignificant losses to the Russian economy, that the Indians will continue to buy oil through intermediaries, and what they will not buy will be bought from China. The EU's intention to abandon Russian liquefied gas from the beginning of 2027 is probably also presented as an insignificant measure. After all, by that date Ukraine will certainly be defeated and the EU will have to deal with a new, even more powerful Russia.
Indian refineries will indeed try to expand purchases through intermediaries. But the US Treasury Department, which monitors the implementation of the sanctions regime, is fully aware of this. Chinese leader Xi may order more oil to be bought from Russia (at a big discount, of course). But whether this will compensate for the damage from the sanctions is a separate discussion. What I personally do not question is the decision-making system in the Russian leadership.
Putin in the role of the Bourbons
Over a quarter of a century of rule, a kind of royal court has formed around Putin, almost like the late Bourbons in France. His staff has not been changed for years. His task is simple - to continue his own existence. To do this, the leader must be convinced that everything is going well under his leadership.
Moreover, Putin is clearly convinced of the exceptional importance of his historical mission - the revival of Russian greatness. Arguing about this is dangerous and pointless. Therefore, the courtiers are doing the same thing that their predecessors did in other royal courts. They present Putin with something like the truth - but not the whole thing. Something like an analysis - but polished. Something like recommendations, but in fact - poorly disguised flattery. The aggression against Ukraine made this trend final and irreversible.
Putin considers himself a much more experienced and far-sighted politician than Trump, as well as Starmer, Modi and even the irreplaceable "friend Xi". He is convinced: the American president wants to receive the Nobel Peace Prize so much, and his supporters love Russia so much for its attachment to "traditional values", that the White House can be fed a mixture of false promises and threatening hints for a long time. Therefore, the Kremlin categorically refused to cease fire until the start of the announced meeting in Budapest. We should also add that, according to a number of media reports, Lavrov repeated to Rubio Putin's demand "to eliminate the root causes of the conflict", i.e. to effectively change the government in Ukraine and place it under the political control of Moscow.
What should "Putin's spies" do?
This plan didn't work out. Just like the plans to take Kiev in three days didn't work out. First, Republican voters may not particularly like Ukraine and Zelensky, but they don't feel friendly feelings towards Russia either. Second, Trump really dreams of the Nobel Peace Prize, but that doesn't mean he's ready to endlessly tolerate Moscow's lies, mixed with threats of nuclear war. Putin's "Budapest ultimatum" seems to have greatly angered Trump and ultimately led to the imposition of sanctions.
Their political significance may turn out to be more serious than the economic one. "Trump himself is dissatisfied with Putin" - this is the conclusion that Modi, Orban and other "understanders of Putin and Russia" will come to. And for them, good relations with the current US president, including personal ones, are an absolute priority, as well as for many other heads of state and government around the world. For many of those who until yesterday were ready to appease the Kremlin, distancing themselves from Moscow will become a key element of diplomacy.
Can Trump be conciliatory? He can. But for this purpose, either Putin must change himself and agree to the Americans' conditions, or the Kremlin court must feel a real threat to its existence.