The US-Israeli war against Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz for a long time - a key artery of the global economy, through which the world receives about 20% of all its oil and liquefied gas supplies from the Persian Gulf countries. The disruptions portend problems for Europe, America and personally for Donald Trump, but are beneficial for Russia, as they will allow the Kremlin to increase oil sales and earn billions for the war against Ukraine.
Iran controls the northern shore of the narrow strait. It has repeatedly threatened to close it in response to aggression from the US and Israel, but has not done so even after the assassination of the top leadership and several days of bombing. However, shipping has practically stopped, as carriers do not want to take risks, and insurance has risen sharply in price.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important? Can Iran close it?
"The Strait of Hormuz is technically open, but in practice it is closed to shipping. It is no longer about an abstract geopolitical risk premium. It is about real disruptions in physical supplies," note experts from the company Kpler, which tracks the movement of tankers.
How war can help the Kremlin
"The conflict significantly improves Russia's position in the world oil market," say Kpler analysts. "Disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies will force India and China to increase their dependence on Russian supplies."
In recent months, these major buyers of Russian oil have been cutting imports under Western pressure, forcing Russia to further lower prices and reduce exports. However, the country has not been able to sell all of its sanctioned oil, and millions of barrels are "rotating" at sea in tankers from the so-called shadow fleet, waiting for buyers.
If Hormuz is closed, the world will be deprived not only of legal Middle Eastern oil from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq, but also of smuggled Iranian oil under sanctions. In view of the US blockade against Venezuela, Russia will effectively remain the only major seller of cheap "shadow" oil. With an inevitable rise in world prices, it will become easier for Moscow to sell the volumes currently blocked at sea.
Bloomberg energy expert Javier Blass is categorical: "Vladimir Putin will profit from the war thanks to the rise in oil prices and demand for Russian sanctioned raw materials. India could become a buyer if the White House turns a blind eye."
Trump has insisted that India stop importing Russian oil. But low gasoline prices in the United States on the eve of the November congressional elections may prove more important for him.
Even if Trump continues to express dissatisfaction, India is likely to return to buying Russian oil, analysts believe. S&P Global notes that India's strategic oil reserves are currently below the level recommended by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
China has been actively building up its reserves in recent months, but it would also be ready to increase seaborne imports from Russia if Hormuz is blocked, Kpler experts believe.
"The disruptions pose a more serious short-term threat to India, which is likely to immediately switch to Russian oil, given its accessibility and already established logistics," they write. "China, which has recently been reducing its imports of Russian oil, is likely to abandon this restraint if the conflict continues for weeks."
The benefits for Russia do not end there
The disruptions in seaborne supplies give the Kremlin hope of preserving pipeline supplies to Europe. But there are two obstacles here.
First, the EU is preparing a full oil embargo against Russia and intended to announce the details in April. The oil crisis is not the best time for such decisions.
Second, the main European buyers of Russian oil - Hungary and Slovakia - have not received raw material for more than a month through the "Druzhba" pipeline through Ukraine, which was damaged by Russian bombing. Because of this, they are blocking new sanctions against the Kremlin and the granting of European credit to Ukraine.
The EU is proposing that they switch to pipeline supplies from a sea terminal in Croatia. But if the problems in Hormuz reduce sea supplies, this argument will fall away and the EU may be forced to increase pressure on Ukraine to repair the pipeline faster.
How the West will suffer
Trump promised the Americans low prices and cheap gasoline. A global oil crisis is not in his plans.
The United States is the world's largest oil and gas producer and is not threatened by physical shortages. It also has a strategic oil reserve that can be used to limit price spikes.
Europe, however, is in a more vulnerable position. After the energy divorce with Russia, the EU buys oil and gas on the open market and is highly dependent on market prices. The European economy is growing weakly, unlike the American one, and a new energy shock could cause economic and political turmoil.
The war began on Saturday, and when European markets opened on Monday, gas prices jumped 20% compared to Friday.
"It's a big jump, but we've seen bigger ones," says Tom Marzec-Manser, Wood Mackenzie's chief analyst for the European gas market. He recalls that in the previous war with Iran in June 2025, prices were even higher and warns:
"The longer this goes on, the more prices will rise."
How serious? By 130%, Goldman Sachs analysts predict. If the blockade of Hormuz lasts more than two months, gas prices in Europe could triple.
Qatari liquefied gas will not be able to be quickly replaced. The United States, although the largest producer, cannot increase exports, since terminals are operating at maximum capacity. And Russian liquefied gas is under sanctions.
America will also not be able to easily break through a possible blockade. Trump has long promised to solve the smaller problem - the blockade of the Red Sea by the Houthis - but this key sea route between Europe and Asia remains closed.