Vladimir Putin has not looked so helpless in a long time. He had not expected US sanctions against "Rosneft" and "Lukoil". And this blow could turn out to be stronger than the "Tomahawk", believes Roman Goncharenko.
Vladimir Putin rarely loses control. But on Thursday, October 23, that's exactly what happened. The Russian president's comments to journalists that day were perhaps one of the most striking illustrations in recent years that Western pressure is working. Speaking about the cancellation of the meeting with Donald Trump in Budapest and the US sanctions against "Rosneft" and "Lukoil", Putin was visibly nervous and unable to hide his anger. His expression and choice of words betrayed uncertainty.
A blow to Putin's self-esteem and Russia's economy
Putin's nervousness was due primarily to Donald Trump. After their recent telephone conversation, the Russian president was sure that there would be no surprises from the White House. Trump's refusal to hand over Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine was assessed in the Kremlin as a success. Trump's pressure on Kiev to make concessions to Moscow reinforced this impression, and not only in the Kremlin, but also in Western capitals. And suddenly - the cancellation of the personal meeting. No world leader has ever dared to do such a thing.
The Russian media first kept eloquently silent, and then tried to soften the impression by coming up with headlines that the dialogue was continuing. Later, Putin himself pretended that nothing terrible had happened, stating that the meeting had not been canceled, but postponed. But this was not convincing. The cancellation of the Budapest meeting is a strong blow to the image and self-esteem of the Russian president, the effect of which should not be underestimated.
But it did not end there. Almost simultaneously, Trump dealt a second, much more severe blow to Russia by imposing sanctions on "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" - the two companies that account for almost half of Russia's crude oil exports. The Kremlin clearly had not expected this combination of blows, although it probably had not ruled out the imposition of stricter sanctions. Not only that, but the American president also allowed himself to mock Putin - a favorite tactic of the Russian president himself, which Trump had not used in his address so far. In response to a journalistic comment that the Kremlin leader was not impressed by his sanctions, Trump said: "I'm glad he thinks so. We'll talk about it in six months. Let's see how things develop".
Moscow is not sure that Trump will not give "Tomahawk" to Ukraine
Sanctions against the oil giants, of course, will not force Russia to quickly stop the war against Ukraine, as Trump, inspired by his success in the Middle East, seeks. But the Russian economy, which has already begun to seriously falter, will soon feel the consequences. The money to continue the war, which Moscow is seeking by increasing VAT from 2026, will be even less. The more Putin says that Russia feels "confident", the less credible it sounds.
The effect of the strike on the economy may turn out to be stronger than the decision to supply "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine. And it can still be made. And Putin no longer seems sure that this will not happen. That is why he urgently changed his rhetoric - from restrained statements about strengthening air defense to combat "Tomahawk" to threats of a "striking" response to Ukraine's strikes deep inside Russia with American weapons.
His words on the European Union sanctions were also self-revealing. The Russian president tried to ridicule his hated Europe, but in the end he only demonstrated his impotent malice. The Kremlin is not so much afraid of the new package of sanctions as of the fact that Brussels will still start spending frozen Russian assets on buying weapons for Ukraine. And although the decision has been postponed until the December EU summit, this issue seems to be in the final stages of coordination, only the details remain.
How Putin can respond
The Russian president does not have many options for response. He will continue the war in the hope of capturing at least one major city in eastern Ukraine. He will probably also intensify strikes on civilian targets, perhaps with more powerful weapons, but Russia will be deterred by the risk of inciting Trump to a reciprocal response - the supply of more powerful weapons to Kiev.
To prevent this from happening, the Kremlin boss may try to change the agenda and offer a time-limited truce, as already happened at Easter. Another possible move is for Putin to agree to a personal meeting with Zelensky, which Trump is pushing for, or at a lower level - talks between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine.
However, it is not certain that this will work. Putin still wants to continue the war. But a new stage is emerging in it. Trump has increasingly begun to play with the Russian president by his rules, namely - without any rules and relying on unpredictability. Europe is predictably lagging behind for now, but is moving in the same direction, gaining momentum.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DW as a whole.