Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has the flexibility and incentive to offer cargoes of crude oil, which the country sells mainly to China, as a bargaining chip if Venezuela holds talks with the United States, Reuters reports.
The administration of US President Donald Trump, which has increased its military presence in the Caribbean, has said it is open to talks with Maduro, whose government is struggling to attract foreign investment in the country's oil fields amid US sanctions.
Yesterday, the US officially designated Venezuela's "Cartel de los Soles" for a foreign terrorist organization, increasing pressure on Maduro as they prepare for further operations in the coming days.
The Crude Oil Lever
Oil production in OPEC member Venezuela has stabilized at about 1.1 million barrels per day this year, less than a third of its historic peak in the late 1990s. More than 80% of exports between June and October were to China.
These cargoes, along with possible operating licenses for American companies, could be Maduro's best leverage in any negotiations, analysts say.
"Sending more oil to the United States and protecting American investments in Venezuela is something Maduro can easily offer," said energy analyst Thomas O'Donnell. However, the offer "may not be enough now that Washington has the upper hand," he added, given the current stability of the oil market and low prices.
Venezuelan Oil Minister Delcy Rodriguez said yesterday that the US has targeted Venezuela because of its vast crude oil reserves.
"They want Venezuela's oil and gas reserves. For nothing, without paying," she said, noting the demand for heavy crude oil by US refineries in the Persian Gulf. The United States produces mainly light crude.
Venezuelan oil exports to the United States through a license to Chevron, the partner of Venezuelan state oil and natural gas company PDVSA, fell in the third quarter to half the volume of the first quarter.
Venezuela may redirect cargoes
Most of PDVSA's supply contracts were suspended after the United States imposed sanctions on the country in 2019, forcing the company to sell almost all of its oil on the spot market at deep discounts.
With PDVSA no longer tied to long-term supply agreements, it could redirect crude cargoes destined for Chinese independent refineries to the United States and Europe under a new political agreement.
Washington has blocked cash payments to PDVSA for years, but the oil company has extensive experience with oil swaps, which allow it to exchange its crude for much-needed fuel imports.
Venezuelan oil shipments to China increased in the second half of 2025 to over 80% of total exports - mainly due to US policies preventing exports to other destinations, compared to 63% in all of last year. That leaves room for diversification of export destinations.
More flexible licenses
The Maduro administration could also focus on negotiations to reinstate U.S. licenses to foreign oil producers in the country, as some Venezuelan officials have called for, which would allow oil exports to the U.S. and Europe to flow more freely.
Despite having the world’s largest crude reserves, the Maduro administration has failed to distribute Venezuela’s oil fields to experienced energy companies in recent years under a negotiated model it has proposed, and has attracted only small investors who do not contribute significantly to the country’s production.
Most Western energy companies have been reluctant to invest since the expropriations of foreign oil assets during the rule of former Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez and the subsequent U.S. sanctions, nor to commit the vast capital needed to revive the aging Venezuela's energy industry.
Such a revival effort would also pose a huge challenge to the government's opposition, which has proposed reforming Venezuela's oil industry if it takes office, as sweeping changes would be needed just to return to production levels of two decades ago.
The Trump administration has been inconsistent in its approach to permits, granting temporary licenses to some companies while freezing others.