Russia very often does not adhere to concluded agreements, so there is a serious danger that Moscow will take over the possible future demilitarized zone in Donbas by force, says Russia expert Gerhard Mangot.
The US plan to end the war in Ukraine also contained the idea of creating a demilitarized special economic zone in Donbas. This proposal has been actively discussed in recent days. DW sought the opinion of Austrian political scientist, Russia expert and professor of international relations at the University of Innsbruck Gerhard Mangot.
What do you think about the new idea of Donbas becoming a free economic zone that is demilitarized?
Gerhard Mangot: This is an attempt to find a compromise between Russia's territorial claims and the position of Ukraine, which does not agree to cede its territories. The problem is how such a special economic zone will function from a legal point of view - under Ukrainian or Russian law? Ukraine will not accept a zone created under Russian law, and vice versa - Russia will not recognize a zone operating under Ukrainian law. This is an open question. In addition, who will work there - only international companies or Ukrainian and Russian, or only Ukrainian, or only Russian? Many things remain unclear. Until the parties reach an agreement, and I believe that this will be extremely difficult, it is impossible to say whether this is a good idea or not. Personally, I am inclined to think that this is not the best idea.
Russia often does not comply with the agreements
And most importantly, how can we ensure that Russia does not occupy this area?
Gerhard Mangot: It is supposed to be demilitarized. But Russia often does not comply with the agreements, and no one knows whether it will try to occupy the northern parts of Donetsk Oblast. After all, according to Russian law, these territories are already considered part of the Russian Federation, so demilitarization without the presence of international forces is a complete illusion. Ukraine cannot accept this. And no Western country is likely to agree to maintain an international mission right on the front line.
And above all, Russia is not ready to accept this.
Gerhard Mangot: Absolutely true. Of course, these could be troops from Pakistan, India or Turkey, but I don’t believe that Russia would agree to such a solution.
Putin’s advisor Yuri Ushakov has already admitted that the Russian army probably won’t be there, but only the Rosgvardia.
Gerhard Mangot: Rosgvardia is also a militarized structure, well-armed. This would be a trick that doesn’t actually change anything: the scenario in which Russia will eventually seize this territory by force remains real.
In the current conditions, it is impossible to hold a referendum.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also said that the issue of transferring territories, regardless of whether Ukraine currently controls them or not, can only be resolved through a referendum. What do you think about this?
Gerhard Mangot: According to the Ukrainian constitution, the cession of territories is possible only after a national referendum. And here the same problem arises as with the proposal to hold presidential elections: under the current conditions it is impossible to organize such a referendum.
But even with a ceasefire this is impossible, because the electoral register of Ukraine dates back to 2012. And now many Ukrainians are in the countries of the European Union, in Russia, there are also internally displaced persons who have fled from the zone of military operations to safe regions. Is it possible to organize all the logistics? How to compile electoral lists under such conditions? And one more very important thing: the regions occupied by Russia will in no case be able to vote legitimately, because Moscow does not recognize referendums in the occupied territories.
Achieving a negotiated solution is unlikely
It sounds as if this plan is completely unrealistic. What do you think in general about Trump's ideas to impose peace with the proposals he is making?
Gerhard Mangot: I am not very optimistic about reaching an agreement, because Ukraine's demands and Russia's demands are incompatible. There is no common ground between them. The Europeans support the Ukrainian position, and the US is largely close to the Russian one. I do not see how an agreement can be reached, because these are very sensitive issues. This is primarily a question of territories and security guarantees, and Russia is categorically against the presence of Western troops in Ukraine. Therefore, I consider it very unlikely that a solution will be reached.
What can Trump do then? He threatened to cut off all aid. But he is already selling weapons to NATO. What pressure mechanisms does he have?
Gerhard Mangot: Trump can put pressure on Ukraine and Russia, including through sanctions. With regard to Ukraine, he can stop the supply of weapons to European countries, which then transfer them to Ukraine. He can go even further: stop the provision of intelligence that the US transfers to Ukraine. Then Ukraine will lose the ability to penetrate deep into Russian territory with the help of drones and strike oil bases, pipelines, oil refineries and similar targets there.
This would be imposing foreign conditions
The only way to achieve a solution in the course of negotiations is for the US to completely refuse military support for Ukraine. But this would not be a negotiated solution, but an imposition of peace on the part of Russia. Ukraine would not want such a development of events.
Russia states that in any case it will seize Donbass – either by military means or through peace agreements. If the former – by military means – how long could this take?
Gerhard Mangot: Currently, only about 16 percent of the Donetsk region remains under Ukrainian control. The front line is very mobile: Pokrovsk is almost in Russian hands, Seversk and Mirnograd are also almost captured. This means that Russia can theoretically achieve this goal by military means – to seize the entire Donetsk region. But this will take time – a year, two... Everything depends on the resistance ability of the Ukrainian army, and this, in turn, depends on the volume of Western armament and, above all, on the availability of soldiers. Ukraine's big problem at the moment is the shortage of soldiers, mobilization resources. The worse the situation in Ukraine with ammunition, weapons and personnel, the faster Russia will be able to take over these territories. But this process will not be easy and quick.