The social discontent in Iran, caused by the economic crisis in the country, is turning into an open protest against the regime in Tehran.
In recent days, thousands of people in Iran have been protesting again - this time against the dramatic devaluation of the national currency and the economic crisis reaching historic proportions. What began as a strike by traders has meanwhile been filled with increasing political anger - to the point of demands for “death to the dictator”.
Is the current collapse of the currency an inflationary crisis?
Meanwhile, one US dollar costs 1.45 million rials. A year ago, the exchange rate was still 820,000 rials. The average Iranian earns just $100 a month. The result: the entire monthly salary goes to basic food.
In a country as dependent on imports as Iran, such an inflationary shock immediately causes social destabilization. According to human rights lawyer Gisu Nia, the economic collapse is the reason, but not the core of the protests. “Like the protests of December 2017, there is an economic reason now. But if we look at the slogans and the scale of the protests, we will see the deep dissatisfaction with the regime in Iran and the desire to remove this regime.” Many Iranians no longer perceive the economic collapse as a fixable crisis, but as a systemic failure of the regime led by revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei.
What distinguishes these protests from previous uprisings?
The current protests are the latest - after those sparked by social anger (in 2017/2019), by the use of extreme violence (in 2019) and by cultural criticism of the system (in 2022).
In front of DW, Iran expert Nia notes the radicality and consistency of the protests. “Slogans like “Women, life, freedom” are heard - as in 2022. But you can also hear “Death to the dictator”. The regime must go.”
The demands to the leadership for reforms are almost non-existent - the target is the system itself. The movement has taken a direction that connects politically different generations.
What role does the bazaar play?
The fact that the protests began in the bazaar has historical significance. Since the bazaar has been the economic artery and political anchor of the system for centuries, it has also been considered a kind of political early warning system and a possible multiplier of protests. The Islamic Revolution of 1979 was also closely linked to a bazaar strike.
These strikes affect not only supplies but also the conservative backbone of the republic. Nia speaks of the “blood of Iran's central markets”. Stall owners and others gather to protest when the current economic situation becomes unbearable.
How can President Pezeshkian respond?
President Masoud Pezeshkian does not have much room for political response. He recently admitted: “If the problems cannot be resolved, we cannot govern”. This is reminiscent of political bankruptcy. And the government's announcement to replace the current head of the Central Bank did not calm the demonstrators.
The draft budget for 2026 provides for tax increases of 62 percent with inflation reaching 50 percent. The street perceives this as robbery. The public's reactions show that Iranians no longer divide their political leadership into “reformers” and “hardliners”, but have lost their trust in the entire political class.
How is the crisis affecting the population?
The economic crisis has long since turned into a social and infrastructural crisis. Savings have been devalued, food and medicine are both too expensive and inaccessible, and power and water outages are becoming more frequent. Meanwhile, the urban population has also been affected by them.
“The reality is that people cannot afford to buy food - they cannot afford to pay for many things”, explains Gisu Nia to DW. In the cities, water has been regularly cut off for a long time, and this facilitates political mobilization. Those who have nothing to lose in material terms are more willing to take the risk of confronting the system.
Why is the criticism directed against foreign policy?
For decades, the Islamic Republic has invested billions in its “Axis of Resistance”, which is supposed to guarantee it the loyalty of the militias in Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza. Now the protests are explicitly directed against this regional intervention policy. In this way, an ideological taboo is being broken. “The fact is the rejection of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. That is, neither Gaza nor Lebanon - my life is for Iran", says Gisu Nia.
Traders protest against rising prices and inflation in Iran. Photo: Farsnews
This nationalization of the protest shows that loyalty is no longer based on religious or transnational grounds, but on socio-state principles. Every dollar given to Hezbollah or Hamas is perceived as theft from its own people.
Can the regime stop the protests?
The political leadership in Tehran is sending reassuring signals, while in the meantime the security forces have begun to violently suppress the protests. Compared to previous waves of protests, the regime is now trying to intimidate the rebels at an earlier stage. And this should be an expression of great nervousness. “We see online videos showing how the security forces use tear gas. We also see shooting at peaceful demonstrators,” says Gisu Nia.
The Iranian regime finds itself in a delicate situation: the sooner the state uses violence, the more clearly it will demonstrate weakness. However, the repressions no longer scare the demonstrators - they perceive them as evidence that the regime cannot offer political solutions.
What role do foreign secret services play?
The Iranian regime has in the past explained the waves of protests with the intervention of foreign secret services - mainly from the United States and its main enemy Israel, which is denied the right to exist.
After the Israeli secret service Mossad openly called for support for the protests, Iranian state media and security agencies are once again spreading the narrative of "guided destabilization". But neither the speed nor the social breadth of the mobilization could be directed from outside. For many Iranians, allegations of "external conspiracies" confirm not the power, but the leadership's escape from reality.