Comment by Konstantin Eggert:
One of the main losers from the American operation to capture Nicolas Maduro has now (once again) become the Russian military-industrial complex. And more precisely - the manufacturer of the "best" air defense missile systems in the world. Delivered quite pompously to the Venezuelan army, these pieces of iron failed to prevent the US air blitz attack on Caracas. And "once again", because less than six months ago the same thing happened in another country, an ally of the Kremlin - Iran. The conclusions about the Almaz-Antey concern, which produces these anti-missile complexes, are therefore rather discouraging.
Trump resurrects the "Monroe Doctrine"
The political consequences of what happened are more complex and are not yet fully clear. Immediately after the operation in Venezuela, in a telephone interview with "The Atlantic" magazine, Donald Trump said that he had resurrected the "Monroe Doctrine". In essence, he considers the countries of the Western Hemisphere (with the exception, perhaps, of Canada) to be satellites of the United States. There he wants to see only governments that are ready to maintain good relations with the United States. Trump has already threatened Mexico, which was “run by drug cartels“.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a stern warning to the communist regime in Cuba (also an ally of Moscow, by the way). Does this mean that the Americans will undertake similar operations in these countries? It is quite possible, especially in Cuba. We must not forget: 2026 is the year of the 250th anniversary of the United States, and Donald Trump clearly wants to mark it with successes in ensuring the security and greatness of America, as he imagines them.
Any actions against authoritarian leftist anti-American regimes will receive the support of the multimillion-strong diaspora in the United States and will provide the Republican Party with votes in the elections, which are held in America practically continuously. At the same time, Trump and his advisers are demonstrating in every way that their approach differs from that of previous American governments: they have no intention of bringing "democracy and freedom" to the world, as during the time of Bill Clinton or George W. Bush.
Trump left Venezuela to be governed by Maduro's appointed vice president, the staunch communist Delcy Rodriguez. This is obviously in sharp contrast to Bush's policy in Iraq, where Saddam Hussein's administration was literally eradicated at all levels. And because this could not be done quickly, the country simply became ungovernable, say various experts. In the already mentioned interview with “The Atlantic“ Donald Trump calls the operation in Iraq “a disaster” and assures that he will not repeat President Bush's mistakes.
“Losers” Did Putin take Venezuela?
Did the Russian regime lose? On the one hand, yes. Because another military-political client and business partner of Moscow was overthrown. On the other hand, this is not yet a catastrophe. Will Russian interests in the country be affected? It is possible that some of them will be preserved. In Syria, for example, after the fall of the Bashar Assad regime, military bases along the coast were still left to Putin.
The overthrow of Maduro undoubtedly caused new damage to the image of the Russian dictatorship in the countries of the “global South“. After all, after so many years of overt and covert Russian-Venezuelan cooperation, neither Russian special services, nor diplomats, nor military advisers played any noticeable role in this crisis. At the same time, it is unlikely that Beijing, Delhi or Pretoria would have imagined that Putin, mired in Ukraine, would throw the Russian army and navy to the other side of the world to save the “Bolivarian” regime in Caracas.
The main question after the events of the past weekend is: does the US president believe that every great power has the right to its own sphere of influence, where it can do whatever it wants? If the answer is “yes”, then by this logic Putin can occupy Ukraine and, probably, lay claim to the countries of the Baltic region. In this situation, China gets the opportunity to seize Taiwan and, if it wishes, change the government in Indonesia or Thailand. In the Russian “patriotic” Telegram channels, understandable confusion reigns for now, but hope has also emerged that “Trump will definitely betray Zelensky now”.
However, such a policy of Washington (if chosen by the White House) will undoubtedly lead to a nuclear arms race and the "proliferation" of countries claiming greatness and special rights in relation to their neighbors. Washington's European allies will then cease to rely on it, including in the field of defense. And this can rather create big problems for Putin.
Who are America's friends and enemies
If the answer to the question is "no", as I think, then the American administration will be forced to define more clearly who are America's friends and who are its enemies, what is in its strategic interests and what is not. It is interesting that in the same conversation with the journalist from "The Atlantic" Donald Trump again asked Denmark to "hand over" Greenland to America, because in its waters ships of the Chinese and Russian navies "cross" each other. A conflict with a NATO ally over Greenland would be a gift for Putin and Xi Jinping. But, on the other hand, China and Russia in this picture of the world will clearly not be bears among friends.
I will risk making a prediction: Trump will not "give" Ukraine to Putin. But the American president wants a ceasefire at all costs, including at the expense of Ukrainian territorial concessions from Zelensky. Trump believes that in this way he will bring "peace" to Europe. However, Putin will not give him this opportunity. He may have "lost" Venezuela, but he cannot help but "finish things off" in Ukraine. The division of the world, no matter who wants it and how, will not happen.
The Russian regime always retreats when it meets decisive resistance. Whether this will be confirmed now – we will probably learn from the events of 2026.