The worst was expected from the crisis meeting in Washington about Greenland - annexation. But it did not come to that. The US and representatives of Greenland and Denmark did not reach any consensus, but decided to create a working group to discuss the future of the island. What are the possible scenarios? The German public media ARD examines the existing versions.
First scenario: military intervention
Trump constantly mentions this option. There is no doubt about the capabilities of the US army to quickly seize the island. The US still has a military presence in Greenland, albeit with a small number of soldiers. According to the Danish Foreign Ministry, 200 American soldiers are stationed on the northwestern coast of the island.
This would not be enough for a quick operation - the seizure could be carried out mainly with units brought in from outside. An important role in this regard should be played by the Second Fleet of the US Navy, whose area of operation is the northeast Atlantic Ocean. US President Donald Trump has already ordered the preparation of the relevant plans, the German public media reported.
A possible US attack on Greenland would constitute an attack on a NATO country, which would trigger the Alliance's defense mechanism. It could include a military response from other member states, but it does not have to. In the event of a response, an American admiral would have to lead NATO action against the US, since it is currently the US that is responsible for the defense of the Nordic countries of Finland, Sweden and Denmark. As Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen emphasized, such a development would lead to the end of NATO.
The military intervention scenario poses a number of political questions for Trump. Will he make the decision without considering his Republican Party, which has many NATO supporters? Will he risk the US losing its military bases in Europe? Or does he see the conflict in Greenland as a chance to blow up NATO? How high does he determine the risk of a military clash with NATO countries? The answers to these questions should be found in the White House - and not in a joint working group with Denmark, ARD points out.
Second scenario: buying the island
Trump has repeatedly said that he wants to own Greenland, speaking of "acquisition". Washington has repeatedly expressed its appetite for the island - after World War II, the US government offered Denmark $100 million in gold, but then the purchase did not come to fruition, the German public media recalls.
Trump raised the idea during his first term, but not as insistently as now. After winning the 2024 elections, he again spoke about acquiring the island, but he brought the military operation to the fore. According to American media, the purchase option was specified by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio - the current threats were not aimed at military intervention, but at purchase. Citing informed officials, "The New York Times" wrote that Trump had asked for an updated plan to purchase the island.
"Reuters" reported that sums of between $10,000 and $100,000 were also being discussed, to be given to each inhabitant of the island to be convinced to agree to joining the United States.
Copenhagen and Nuuk quickly rejected these options. And the last Danish Minister for Greenland, Tom Hoyem, stated: "He who thinks that Greenlanders can be bought, does not know the Greenlandic soul". Ties with Denmark have been close for centuries, including family ties. This defines cultural identity, while offers of money offend people and cause contempt.
Scenario Three: Referendum on Accession
Greenland is a self-governing part of the Kingdom of Denmark, but has the right to declare independence through a referendum, ARD notes. This could be a step towards the island's voluntary accession to the United States, which Republican Senator John Kennedy has recently spoken about.
At the same time, it seems that the United States is trying to drive a wedge between Greenland and Denmark by stirring up anti-Danish sentiment. At the end of August, DR television broadcast allegations from the Danish government that American citizens are involved in secret actions to increase US influence in Greenland. In addition, Trump appointed a special envoy for Greenland, who announced that he wanted to talk directly with the Greenlanders about joining the United States.
However, as surveys show, 85 percent of Greenlanders are against joining the US. And the insistence of the Americans only leads to a greater rapprochement of Greenland with Denmark. The German public media quoted the Prime Minister of Greenland, Jens Frederik Nielsen, as saying: "If we had to decide here and now, we would choose Denmark, NATO and the EU". Therefore, holding a referendum would not be a particularly attractive prospect for the US.
Fourth scenario: military reinforcement of Greenland and the Arctic
An agreement has allowed US troops to use Greenland militarily since 1951, if they take on its defense. Since then, the US has been building military bases on the island, almost all of which have since been closed. The treaty allows the US to expand its military presence at any time, but this does not seem to be enough for Trump, who constantly justifies his ambitions with the dangers emanating from China and Russia.
To eliminate these security concerns, several NATO countries have recently announced a stronger presence of the Alliance in the region, where they will send soldiers and experts. The aim is to "study the framework conditions for a possible military contribution to support Denmark in ensuring security in the region". The mission is initially rather symbolic - as an offer to the US, but also as an expression of solidarity within NATO, ARD points out.
In parallel, Denmark wants to increase its military presence on the island - in cooperation with NATO partners. There are currently 60 Danish soldiers there, and a unit that conducts observations with dog sleds is maintained in the northeastern part of the island.
After Russia's all-out attack on Ukraine, NATO has rediscovered the strategic importance of the Arctic space and is undertaking more serious efforts corresponding to this importance, summarizes the German public media. Is this ultimately the real goal of the United States? Or will it not be enough for them? However, not only military considerations can play a role in this plan.