The threat of war has the ability to change attitudes - even among those countries that have long opposed the euro.
The ruling elite in Sweden is starting to flirt with the idea of adopting the single European currency, seeking more security and protection against growing geopolitical tensions from both the East and the West, writes Politico in a commentary on Stockholm's changing attitude towards the eurozone.
Abandoning its own currency would be a sharp turn from the decades-old position of the Swedes that national control over the krona is a key tool for managing the economy.
Sweden has never won a formal exemption from the eurozone, as its Danish neighbors have. But since the 2003 referendum, in which a clear majority voted against joining the eurozone, neither Brussels nor Frankfurt has ever pressed the issue.
Just as Russia's invasion of Ukraine prompted traditionally neutral Sweden to join NATO, US President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policy is now actively changing the debate over monetary sovereignty in the Scandinavian country.
On Tuesday, the country's Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson told parliament that her Moderate Party would set up an expert committee to assess the pros and cons of joining the eurozone - if the party remains in power after the September parliamentary elections.
"Politicians may fear that in a severe crisis - for example, a military escalation in the Baltic region or serious turmoil elsewhere in the world - the krona could depreciate very sharply, with severe consequences for the economy," EFG Bank chief economist Stefan Svensson told Politico. Gerlach.
Over the past decade, the Swedish krona has lost more than 20% of its value against the euro before recovering some of its position in recent months.
A sudden collapse triggered by geopolitical tensions could force the central bank, the Riksbank, to raise interest rates sharply to prevent a surge in prices. This, in turn, could push the economy into recession.
After its regular meeting on Thursday, the Riksbank said that while its overall assessment of the economic outlook had not changed since December, "recent developments, including those related to US trade and foreign policy, have broadened the range of possible scenarios for the future".
The Swedish economy has so far withstood such uncertainty, the central bank noted, "but sentiment among households and businesses could deteriorate very quickly".
Whether these factors will be enough to change Sweden's stance on the euro remains to be seen, Gerlach said, citing deep mistrust of the single currency's governance and concerns that the country will be drawn into future bailouts for indebted countries.
"Politicians will weigh the risk of an external crisis against the risk of a new crisis in the eurozone," he said. the Swedish economist who was also deputy governor of the Central Bank of Ireland.
Public opinion remains cautious. A Eurobarometer survey last year showed that only 39% of Swedes considered the country ready to adopt the euro.
However, this is 7 percentage points more than a decade ago and the share could rise further if international tensions threaten the stability of the krona.
After Bulgaria's recent accession to the "euro club", the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden remain the last countries outside the eurozone. By law, they are obliged to adopt the euro after fulfilling and maintaining certain economic criteria for a certain period. Avoiding these thresholds is a strategy that countries like Poland use to keep euro banknotes out of their citizens’ wallets.
"Our economy is performing significantly better than most economies in the eurozone," Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski told the Financial Times, citing solid growth, low unemployment and rising wages. But that argument doesn't hold true to the same extent for Sweden, whose economy is smaller and more vulnerable to global shocks.
Trump's continued interest in Greenland, which is controlled by neighboring Denmark, may have already shifted public sentiment in Sweden further in favor of the euro, Swedish economist Lars Kalmfors told POLITICO.
Kalmfors headed the last expert committee to consider adopting the euro back in 1996, three years before the single currency was introduced.
But that was 30 years ago. In December, he published a report arguing that today the benefits of the euro — such as better trade integration, economic stability and geopolitical positioning — outweigh the costs, even if it means losing an independent monetary policy. The new assessment is driven by both political and economic considerations, he said.
Even if a new expert committee recommends joining, the process itself will take years, Minister Svantesson warned MPs. The cautious approach is necessary to maintain the support of the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats.
This support is key to the survival of the current minority government, and the party is categorically against eurozone membership.
In the current fragile situation, however, it may not take much to change public opinion, Gerlach believes.
"A Russian drone entering Swedish airspace could be enough," he says.