Daniel Smilov's Comment:
The elections in Hungary were followed by the media all over the world, because they are an indicator of general processes in the West. The crushing loss of "Fidesz" after the explicit and unusual support of Trump and Vance echoed transatlantic. For the EU and a united Europe, Orban's loss is undoubtedly good news: Europeans will breathe a sigh of relief that a "counter" to collective action has collapsed with a force greater than the force with which it came to power in the distant 2010. Orban's loss is not the end of the conservative wave, however, although, in Churchill's words, it may turn out to be the beginning of this end. The reasons for this are as follows:
Global MAGA - a recipe for electoral loss
In the current situation, political identification with Trump's MAGA is proving to be a losing one. In the US, Trump's rating is at a record low and the prospects for the Congressional elections are dismal for Republicans. Trump's friends are also losing votes more than they are close to him. Farage in the UK is without inertia - the votes for green and liberal formations are growing, which together with Labor have the majority of the votes. Meloni directly distances himself from Trump in his latest global adventures. There is nothing to talk about the "Alternative for Germany": Trump's very support for it is a misunderstanding. Even in the Bulgarian context, Orbán's "friends" - Radev and Borisov - are quite silent about "Victor" and secretly hope that Vance will not support them with some message (thank God, the US vice president is busy with important world issues and is not planning a visit to our country).
Trumpism - rather a global disappointment
The main reason for Orbán's loss is not so much Orbán himself, but the accumulated bewilderment with the global policies of the MAGA. In one year in the White House, Trump almost unanimously supported Russia in the war against Ukraine; introduced, canceled and reintroduced duties and tariffs, mainly for his allies; demanded Canada and Greenland and started a war with Iran, from which there is no way out. The world economy is in constant stress and the markets are like a roller coaster: from extreme fear to peak satisfaction. Some make a lot of money in the hustle and bustle, but most tremble for the future as they watch the prices of goods rise.
The most important thing is that the global MAGA cannot realize any new idea of the West as a community. Yes, when everyone shares common values, it is normal for the USA to be the leader of the free world, as the largest free democracy. But if the main values are "America first", "Germany second", "Great Britain third", etc., it becomes clear that in this global neo-imperialist Olympics the outcome will not be peaceful. At some point, someone somewhere will fight, start arming themselves, demand that he and his friends be first or at least third (for a medal). The curious thing is that even countries like Iran are now challenging America's supremacy and leadership and want to expel its bases from the Middle East, as well as reparations, the Hormuz Customs and whatnot.
Orbanomics - the numbers of failure
For the entire Orbán administration, Hungary has actually fallen dramatically behind its competitors the Czech Republic and Poland, which has enabled us, together with Romania, to catch up. For 2025, the nominal GDP per capita of some Eastern European countries is as follows: Hungary - USD 25,128; Bulgaria - USD 20,400; Romania - USD 22,436; Poland - USD 28,400; Czech Republic - USD 35,161; Serbia - USD 15,322.
These data clearly show that the EU gives a huge economic advantage (the comparison with Serbia is indicative) and that those EU countries that act as a Trojan horse for Russia or flirt with China are rather lagging behind the rest. "Cheap" oil and gas from Russia did not help Hungary become competitive. At one point, we even surpassed the Hungarians in purchasing power, which historically has probably never happened.
United Europe - the only solution
Against the backdrop of various military and economic crises, it is becoming increasingly clear that a united Europe is the only salvation for European countries in a new, neo-imperialist world. The EU will be the heart of this unification, but for it to be effective, the UK should also join it, and why not Canada, Turkey and Ukraine in some form. By the end of the year, the UK is likely to return to the EU customs union, and perhaps even to the common market. If the latter happens, Brexit will in fact be substantially revised. Ukraine and Turkey are obvious military partners of the EU, and flexible forms for their closer association must be sought. A united Europe has the potential to be a global player, even a leader. A divided Europe is a path to decline.
Orbán has in fact become a symbol of the second strategy, and this contributed to his defeat.
Migration - from a crucial issue to a secondary topic
The rise of Orbán and Trump was associated with hysteria - real and manufactured - against migrants and foreigners. First, it turned out that migration can be limited without much fuss: sensible policies in this area are not impossible and many countries are undertaking them without producing their own Orban. Second, some of the most vocal anti-immigration parties and politicians are failing to limit immigration. In Britain, for example, immigration increased after Brexit: Eastern Europeans were simply mixed with other nationalities. Third, the deadly attacks by ICE (US immigration services) on people on the streets of Minneapolis and other American cities disgusted normal people with anti-immigrant outrages.
The most important thing is something else, however. Both MAGA and Orbán demonstrated that for the sake of one "struggle" with immigration, their societies have to pay a very high price: economic instability and decline, foreign policy isolation, wars, loss or alienation of allies and friends, lack of a unified West in terms of values, collapse of the international legal order. And these are actually the basic, primary political values.
Corruption - a norm that must be put an end to
Orbán has turned the state into an organized form of a corrupt enterprise. In our country, we are also fighting the conquest of the state through behind-the-scenes, informal actions. In Hungary, this happened openly and by statute. With the adoption of Orbán's constitution of 2011, "Fidesz" gained the right to directly appoint its partisans to the court and independent institutions. All of them, plus the media for the most part, were controlled by Orbán. And now it will be difficult for Magyar to change this entire apparatus, unless he adopts a new constitution. The election result allows him to do this.
The attitude towards corruption in the Western world has also changed after Trump's election (especially the second time). The very definition of the concept has become problematic when the president of the most powerful country has his own cryptocurrency, in which billions of people from all over the world "invest". Whether this is a bribe or an investment is not always easy to say without sufficient information. The important thing is that many societies, including the Hungarian one, have proven unable to come to terms with corruption that has become the norm.
Russia - Hungary's first friend. Ukraine - the enemy.
Orbán's attempt to present Russia as Hungary's first and closest friend among European countries failed miserably. Anyone who knows a little Hungarian history will hardly be surprised, and therefore it is unclear why Orban - a well-read and intelligent man - embarked on this doomed endeavor. Smart people get entangled in their own mental chains and at some point begin to believe their own mirages. This Orban mirage led to the current situation in which young people walk around Budapest chanting "Russians out!".
The same applies to Ukraine: the attempt by this country, which is fighting an aggressor for its survival, to present itself as an enemy is ridiculous. What is more: Ukraine shares the values of the EU and the West as a whole and has a place in it. This has yet to be decided, but it is a fact that the country's military experience and the innovativeness of its technologies will be an undeniable plus for a united Europe.
Lessons for Bulgaria
The Hungarian elections came just in time for Bulgarians to make sense of the conclusions they drew. And they are the following:
- The concentration of power in one person is harmful and ends like Orban's story: with the collapse of the country;
- A united Europe is of exceptional interest to all European countries, and especially to medium-sized ones like Bulgaria. Without a strong, united Europe, they become easy prey for neo-imperial powers or, at most, they can hope to become the pet of a Great Power. But even direct support from the Great Power did not bring victory to Orbán;
- The policy of blocking the EU in order to "warm up" relations with Russia brings neither economic benefit nor political dividend. Russian energy resources should not be traded for blocking sanctions against Russia or other collective European measures;
- Ukraine is not an enemy, but a country that is important for Europe's security. Supporting it is an investment, in addition to being morally required;
- Those who loudly call themselves "patriots" are usually not such or bring trouble to their country. True patriotism is solidary, inclusive, creating a community. It does not divide society into "foreign agents" and minorities that do not belong to it, but sets realistic and noble common goals;
- The fight against corruption should not be sacrificed for geopolitical orientation or vice versa. "Tisa" - the party of Magyar - is both anti-corruption and pro-European;
- Citizens must be very active if they want a good result. By staying at home, the status quo is usually reproduced. And in Bulgaria we have reached a situation in which the status quo is unstoppable and relies on frankly illegal prosecutors and magistrates to survive;
- Activity is most important in elections, but it is also important in the squares. The political energy that is generated through protest and demonstration is invaluable. You can recognize Bulgarian Orbanists by the fact that the protests are against them or without them;
- Ultimately, one should vote for values. If you like a person but don't know what exactly they stand for, this is a recipe for future problems.
In short, if Bulgarians are serious about their future, they should vote for parties that will preserve and improve the international legal order and contribute to the establishment of a united Europe as a responsible and strong global player. This is our only chance as a state and nation to emerge with dignity and success from the current and upcoming crises. Orban's policy was a policy of opportunism - the "cunning" small state to be "good" with everyone and take what it can from them. This opportunism failed and is actually the recipe for disaster that Eastern Europe has followed before all major world conflicts. Let's hope that now the "Orban" lesson will be understood correctly and in time.