Why did Bulgaria develop so slowly in the period 2009-2020? Why was she charged with corruption damages? Important questions for those who claim to give an electoral bonus to GERB-DPS. Comment from Daniel Smilov:
On the day of words and letters, I don't know why I thought of the Romanian law that convicts can reduce their sentence if they write a science or fiction book. Within just two years, prison output at neighbors jumped over 400%. Many convicted politicians also contributed to this burst of creative energy. Unfortunately, the enlightened measure was repealed in 2016 and failed to take hold in the civilized world.
Perhaps that is why there are many politicians in Bulgaria who, instead of urgently writing books, are seriously preparing to govern again. And the campaign for the upcoming elections as a whole took a strange shape. A large coalition of heterogeneous formations and free electrons (sometimes even with education and pretensions) is competing to convince the poor electorate that on June 9 it must necessarily punish not someone else, but the PP-DB.
Why?
Why and for what purpose is not very clear. Some explain that PP-DB should be punished because they participated in management with GERB and DPS, who used them to dispute biographies. But if so, then why should the electorate not punish GERB and DPS - isn't it more logical to punish the perpetrators instead of the accomplices in the wrangling of the sin?
Others want punishment for the fact that the PP-DB did not sufficiently coalition with GERB and DPS and did not give them the "laying" ministers to them. This argument misses the fact that GERB and DPS were not coincidentally isolated (at least partially) from power for about three years. After all, in 2020 there was a danger that the people would literally sweep them away, and Boyko Borisov had even promised that he would "retire to his party". A word hole does not do. More importantly, it was somehow inconvenient for Bulgaria to be governed and represented to the world by winners of the "Magnitsky" list. What has changed now in this matter?
Thirds want punishment for the fact that PP-DB were as corrupt as GERB and DPS combined. This is obviously an artistic technique known as hyperbole. But really youthful hyperbole.
The campaign, which runs cheerfully along these lines, however, misses an important point. After all, an electoral penalty for PP-DB would be an automatic electoral bonus for GERB and DPS. And how did these two formations deserve such a bonus?
"The merits"
It is not easy to find an answer to this question. Of Borisov's three administrations, two ("Borisov 1" and "Borisov 3") ended with mass protests on the brink of a serious political crisis. At "Borisov 1" "the lean pizza" of Simeon Dyankov drove thousands to the streets due to inability to pay their household bills. Allegedly, this lean pizza was needed to get us into the Eurozone, but that didn't happen either, because Tsvetan Vasilev and Delyan Peevski first inflated the KTB bubble (with government help) and then burst it to share the assets. The division was not fraternal, but per kilogram of live weight per partner, but in the process the Eurozone became a mirage.
The management "Borisov 3" also ended with mass protests, but at least the financial situation in the country was stable and a major bank did not go bankrupt. For 12 years of GERB and DPS management (since 2009), the country failed to enter either Schengen, the Eurozone, or the OECD. There were also European politicians who simply would not allow a Bulgaria headed by Borisov (not to mention Peevski) within 100 kilometers of closer European integration in anything.
Only the "Borisov 2" administration, together with the Reform Bloc, ended ahead of schedule, but decently so. Well, not quite, because even in this short time, the prime minister managed to expel the reformers from RB, allied himself openly with DPS, used some RB remnants as a fig leaf and ruined the constitutional reform of 2015. All this became a solid basis for managing "Borisov 3" (with DPS and "patriots" for color), which quickly built "Turkish Stream", completed the distribution of KTB assets, spun the gambling affair with Bozhkov, chose Geshev, etc.
All this does not look like achievements deserving of an electoral bonus. Moreover, it is now possible to calculate quite precisely and objectively what damage, as a waste of time, the joint administrations of GERB and DPS have caused to Bulgaria:
Bulgaria's GDP compared to the EU average
Bulgaria as of 2009 was at 44% of the average EU GDP per capita (purchasing power parity). In 11 years, after the three administrations of Borisov and one of Oresharski, the GDP reached 54% - roughly a catch-up percentage per year. For the period 2021-2023, when GERB and DPS do not have control over power in whole or in part, Bulgaria's GDP reaches 64% of the EU average.
That is, without GERB and DPS in power, Bulgaria achieved in three years what it otherwise did in 11. This alone shows that the country lost about eight years of meaningful development in the period 2009-2020. (Even if the population decline is taken into account, the loss of time will not be less than 5-6 years.)
Income and pensions
In terms of income and pensions, the situation is the same. In three years, between 2021-2024, they rose as much (and more) as in the previous 11 years. For 2022 and 2023, Bulgaria is in first and second place in terms of real income growth in the EU. This allowed for the first time (albeit with insignificant values) not to be in the last place in the EU in terms of income calculated through purchasing power parity. And this happened while keeping the foreign debt at about 24% of the country's GDP. These numbers confirm the thesis that in its development in the period 2009-2020, Bulgaria missed years to catch up compared to the rest of the EU. Whether it is five or eight years is not so important.
Inequality
For the period 2009-2020, inequality in Bulgaria increased from 34% to 40% (GINI meter). For comparison: the EU average is 30%, and values above 40% are characteristic of countries such as Turkey and Mexico. From 2021 to 2024, the indicator dropped to 37%. This means that a management without GERD and DPS can repair within 3 years half of the damage caused by GERD and DPS in 11 years. I don't know how to calculate this as a time loss for the country, but a formula will be found.
Corruption damage to administrations
In the period 2009-2020, Bulgaria bought for BGN 1.2 billion two Russian reactors that it does not need. The country built a pipeline for Russian gas for BGN 3 billion and at its own expense, and now hopes that it will not follow the fate of "Nord Stream 2", because then it will remain unpaid. Bulgaria also forgave Russia $1 billion in fines for stopping gas on existing pipelines. In 2014, KTB went bankrupt and was looted, and the Bulgarians covered 4-5 billion to save the situation through their bank fees and zero interest on deposits. Ahmed Dogan became the owner of a thermal power station, a port and a cold reserve, plus an almost extraterritorial enclave of "Rosenets". The "Bozhkov" affair damages the budget by BGN 500 million, but the prosecution was unable to prove whether Goranov took millions in bribes from Vasil Bozhkov, or whether he simply acted out of a good heart. And the highways… (let's not mince words).
On the other hand, the chief secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs under the government "Denkov" he appears to have received an expensive watch as a gift - from someone who was later revealed to be a smuggler. And Laurer managed to sell his apartment very profitably. And the most important thing: in the PP they discussed collecting donations from businessmen. In two words, complete symmetry in corruption between PP-DB and GERB-DPS...
The important questions
Why did Bulgaria develop more slowly and waste so much time in the period 2009-2020? Why was the country burdened with a multi-billion dollar corruption tax? These are perhaps important questions for those who claim to give an electoral bonus to GERB-DPS with a view to a possible new government.
After so many years of intensive training, the Bulgarians are perhaps used to running with a large and heavy millstone. And they even like Sisyphean efforts. The millstone is round, aerodynamic, and if you don't wear it in a gully, it can roll down on its own. It doesn't even need an assembly to carry it like a cart for ease. Well, to the millstone this time will probably be added a more ridged and unshaped limestone block, directly from the "Magnitsky" list. But what has the society not dealt with so far: how the Egyptians transported the stone blocks for the pyramids.
Most importantly, these are not processes that happen by inevitability. Free people make free choices. And they read and write books for beauty, truth, or public good. And not to reduce their sentence.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial team and of DV as a whole.