It is clear that the time of the "gangster model" in Bulgaria ended. What we are seeing in the DPS and (in a paler version) in other parties in recent days and weeks is the beginning of a realignment of the system. Time to reboot.
It has been obvious for years – I've been writing about this since the end of 2019 – that the time of the Borisov-Peevski model is over. Those parameters of the big picture that allowed him to occupy Bulgaria simply changed. What we are seeing in the DPS and (in a paler version) in other parties in recent days and weeks is the beginning of the post-gangster period.
External and internal causes
The major parameters that facilitated the existence of the “gangster model” were external and internal. Outside: the EPP and the European Commission turned a blind eye to the usurpation of power and public funds in Bulgaria; The West generally turned a blind eye to politicians cooperating with Putin, as it considered Putin a “partner”. Inside: there was no constant and irresistible civil pressure against the model; society as a whole did not suffer from the lack of justice, but – on the contrary – celebrated violence, gossip and simplicity as primordial folk values.
None of this is the case anymore. Outside, the war changed everything. No one considers Putin a partner and no one tolerates those European politicians who consider themselves his friends. What's more: it finally became clear to the West that corruption on the scale of “gangster“ undermines everyone's security. Internally, Bulgarian society exploded with resentment in 2020, and this explosion changed the entire political and psychological landscape. Tarikatlak and simplicity are no longer in fashion and their bearers are no longer the heroes of the “people”.
Model blocking requires something new
What has been described so far fully explains the inability of GERB and DPS to form governments – already 7 (seven) times. “The Gangster Model” does not find the strength to take over power in the old way – but also does not know how to manage in a new way. Blocking the model, however, blocks - as we can see - the entire system. This cannot last forever: either the system will collapse and be succeeded by something else (hence the talk of a presidential republic), or its constituent parts – the parties, the citizens, the media, the commentators – they will change the way they operate and so the system will rearrange itself.
As we see from the experience of other countries, there are two options in such a rearrangement of the system. One is a dabbling in the direction of populism, authoritarianism, and thinly disguised fascism. The other is to activate civic behavior so that populism is faced with a colorful front that reboots the system of democracy and makes it work in a more effective way.
We have seen the end of the "gangster model". We are already seeing the beginning of the rearrangement of the system of democracy.
The dramas in DPS
The Mahlen dramas in and around “Greatness” reveal the inability of “ to continue as before – in this case, to buy deputies for support in one or another important vote. The drama at DPS reveals the same. Peevski tried to absorb this party, as he absorbed companies and banks. But in the case of DPS there is another significant element. We see that the failure of the takeover is due to the drive of the rank and file members, sympathizers and activists of DPS. Inside the DPS we see, with the relevant specifics, that civil uprising against usurpation, which on a national scale already happened in 2020.
The GERB has quieted down, as they are aware that their own future also depends on the outcome of the battle in the DPS. With the breaking of the model inside the DPS, the dead grip of GERB on the institutions becomes impossible. The DPS party itself, if it (as seems likely) breaks Peevski with the strength of its members, will enter a dramatic period of its own transformation into something other than what it is now. Once they felt their own power, once they achieved their own victory, “ordinary people” as a rule they do not allow themselves to be pushed back into the old fold.
And the rest are under pressure
All other parties in Bulgaria are also experiencing the purely gravitational pressure of what is happening in the DPS. The ITNs went silent like GERD as the world they were able to navigate was dying. "Revival", on the contrary, felt the vacuum that appeared as a result of the sharp weakening of the DPS, and tried to fill it with its own feverish political movements. PP-DB, on the contrary, left without the usual pressure from their main enemies, as if they decided that they already have a big neck and can start some internal quarrel.
One way or another, by the time of the next election, everything will be different. The parties will be different, the sentiments in society will be different, the voters will be of a different mindset than the current one.
A restart of democracy?
If you ask me, these are ideal conditions for carrying out that restart of democracy, which the French have already done in their country. A matter of political mind, will, clear ideas and organization.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and of DV as a whole.