The President of the Republika Srpska (RS, a state entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina) Milorad Dodik , despite the warnings of the international community, began to carry out its threats of a "peaceful secession" from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
This week, Dodik presented an "Agreement on the settlement of relations between Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in accordance with the Dayton Agreement and international acts", as well as "Information on the need for secession.
The actual "agreement" consists of only 15 members and occupies less than four pages, while the "information" barely fits 45.
However, the implementation of these documents could lead to a new war in the Balkans.
Unless, of course, the West changes its policy and takes real action to protect peace in the region.
"The separatist road map"
The documents announced by Dodik must be approved by the RS National Assembly, and then, as stated, will be handed over to the authorities of FBiH (the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina is the second constituent part of BiH, along with the RS ).
It should be noted that these documents will not be submitted for approval or consideration, but only for signature, as if the Federation had already agreed to the "agreement".
The "contract" it really looks like an international agreement - you can feel the help of the Moscow diplomats who recently opened a "office of the Russian Embassy" in Banja Luka, the capital of RS.
But some basic details deserve attention.
First of all, both documents, especially the "Information", repeatedly mention the Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina and became the legal basis of the current state. However, neither the Dayton Agreement nor the Constitution of BiH envisages the possibility of the country's disintegration.
This is why the Office of the High Representative was created to ensure the implementation and enforcement of the Dayton Accords. It is supported by the European Union forces (EUFOR, with nearly 1,500 troops) and the NATO office in Sarajevo (which can be reinforced within 24 hours with military units from a neighboring NATO member state).
Article 1 of the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was initialed (agreed upon) in 1995 by a representative of the RS, clearly states: "BiH consists of two units (subjects) - the Federation of BiH and the RS.
And it is BiH, not its individual entities, that is a legal entity under international law.
On the other hand, the entities have the right to cooperate with each other and on the international stage only within the framework of their established powers. However, neither the Dayton Agreements nor the Constitution of BiH envisages that the subjects decide the issue of the existence of a single state of BiH.
Interestingly, Article 2 of the "agreement" guarantees the peace and security of "their territories" and the achievement of regional stability. How - by changing the borders of BiH after the "peaceful disintegration"?
Is it proposed to guarantee the stability of the region by provoking the Croats to create their own entity? Or by giving an example to the Muslims in Serbia and Montenegro how to start an active struggle to create their own state?
We should not forget the warning of Bosniak leaders five years ago about their readiness to defend the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
It is hard to say how the monarchs of the Persian Gulf countries and Turkey will react to Dodik's intentions for a "peaceful divorce". However, it is unlikely that they will abandon their like-minded people, who will begin to defend the territorial integrity of BiH.
In the context of the above, Article 6 of the "agreement", which talks about "respect for sovereignty, territorial and geographical (!) integrity", is simply touching.
And Article 7 is the pinnacle of political casuistry. He reveals the main reason for the peaceful separation - "the impossibility of updating the General Framework Agreement". According to the authors of the document, the Dayton Agreement does not guarantee equal rights to the entities and constitutional peoples of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Therefore, the Dayton Agreement no longer corresponds to the present and needs a deep update - a discussion that has been going on for years. However, the problems are not so much related to guaranteeing the rights of constitutional peoples as to the representatives of "others" nationalities.
And the "cherry on the cake" is that after the collapse of BiH, Dodik, in accordance with Article 5, dreams of continuing its path to the EU!
How will the West react?
And if the "agreement" raises many questions, it "The information on the need to initiate a procedure for settling relations between the RS and FBiH in accordance with the Dayton Agreement and international acts" raises even more questions.
In short, this document aims to prove that it was the Dayton Accords that led to Dodik's intention to leave the RS.
The information is a dangerous mixture of truth and falsification. The main "culprits" for all the problems are Dayton, the High Representative and the Constitutional Court of BiH, the international community and the Bosniaks.
There is no point in parsing this document. To understand its content, it is enough to read the titles of the individual sections: "Anti-Dayton Activity of the High Representative" (who tries to understand Dodik and stop his separatist actions), "Anti-Dayton activity of the Constitutional Court of BiH" (hearings are currently being held regarding Dodik's violation of BiH laws and the decisions of the High Representative), "Destructive activity of Bosniak politicians", "Pressure on RS".
Outright speculation about the powers, functions and rights of the subjects fills this "Information", according to which everyone is guilty except Dodik and the RS politicians...
We have to admit: a lot of work has been done. And it is aimed at destroying not only BiH, but also peace and stability in the region.
It is not difficult to imagine how the Kremlin dictator rubs his hands with joy - in the Balkans it really smells like a new big war.
And in order to prepare a favorable basis for the transfer of the "agreement" to the authorities of FBiH, Dodik secured the approval by the People's Assembly of the RS of another dangerous document - the Declaration on the Protection of National and Political Rights and the Common Future of the Serbian People, which was approved by the All-Serbian Assembly.
But it seems that Dodik did not succeed in achieving what he wanted - rather the opposite.
High Representative Christian Schmidt, the embassies of the US, UK, Germany and others again issued warnings and emphasized that there will be no separation, they will not allow it.
And Schmidt frankly stated that he must take the measures that his mandate requires in order to ensure peace and stability in the country. EUFOR units were activated.
It appears that the presentation of the "agreement" and approving the declaration were Dodik's last argument. After all, his situation is really bad.
The United States has imposed sanctions not only on Dodik and the leadership of the RS, but also on their families and related enterprises and companies. And if separatist attempts continue, they promise to approve additional sanctions against Dodik.
In the Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina, his party lost one seat to an opposition representative. It is expected that the Court of BiH will issue a conviction in his case.
Funding to member states is falling, with even Hungary providing only a third of the promised €300 million. Some foreign companies have started withdrawing their investments. There is nothing concrete from Russia, except words of support, which is not enough.
Dissatisfaction with the standard of living in the RS, which worsened during Dodik's presidency, is growing. And Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, according to the regional press, has hinted that he may turn his back on "friend Milorad".
Some analysts and media do not rule out that the High Representative may dismiss the chairman of the RS, and the court may approve the decision to imprison him...
The coming weeks will provide a definitive answer to the question of what Dodik's plan is.
Will he really try to declare the independence of Republika Srpska, risking becoming a prisoner?
Or is he just raising the stakes to blackmail the West?
And most importantly - we will see how far the patience of the West will go and whether it will decide to solve the "Dodik problem", which has been threatening peace in the Balkans for years.
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Volodymyr Cibulnik is a Candidate of Historical Sciences, chargé d'affaires of Ukraine in Bosnia and Herzegovina (2018)
translation: Nick Iliev