The Turkish president only flirts with the Kremlin when it suits him. Erdogan is a master at sending signals to the Kremlin, seeking strategic concessions from Putin, writes Ivan Preobrazhensky.
Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to Turkey is a widely discussed topic in Russia. Officials are also discussing it. Initially, Sergei Shoigu said that the Russian president is ready to agree to the proposal of Turkish leader Recep Erdogan to conclude an agreement with Ukraine on non-aggression on the energy infrastructure.
The media then reported that Putin had allegedly requested, but not received, a convoy of fighter jets to accompany his plane. Finally, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that his leader's two-year-delayed visit to Turkey would take place “when preparations are completed”. And it appears to have already been completed, but not in the way Moscow wanted, because earlier this week Turkish leader Erdogan said justice demanded that Crimea be returned to Ukraine.
Dictator Games
Since the beginning of the Russian military aggression against Ukraine, Turkey has successfully balanced between the aggressor and the victim, trading profitably with both sides and using the complex situation to increase its influence in the South Caucasus and the Black Sea region. Erdogan managed to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and put it under the control of Azerbaijan. It was only at the end of July that the Turkish president admitted Turkey's direct participation in the second war in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Now, together with Putin and Azerbaijan's authoritarian ruler Ilham Aliyev, Erdogan is pushing the idea of a transit corridor through the Armenian province of Syunik. This route would cut her off from Iran and effectively block one of the potential smuggling channels under sanctions. It is no coincidence that Tehran strongly opposed the idea and even directly warned Moscow that it would not accept such a transit corridor.
And the problem with Russian gas
By all accounts, the Iranians are Putin's allies in his war against Ukraine. Although they deny their direct involvement, they supply Russia with missiles. Right now, the Kremlin should not irritate its ally, yet it continues to press Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to make peace on Azerbaijan's terms, which requires changing the Armenian constitution and opening the Syunik Corridor. And it is difficult to understand whether Putin thinks that organizing the flow of goods through Turkey and further through Armenia is so important to Russia, or whether the most important thing for him is to help Erdogan.
In addition, Russia and Turkey are connected by the problem of Russian gas supplies to the European Union (EU). Here they are “like-minded”, although Erdogan, of course, has a greater advantage. If transit through Ukraine stops from 2025, as expected, the route through Turkey will remain the last functioning pipeline through which Russian gas will reach Central Europe. Not to mention that, despite the EU's silent resistance, the Russian “Rosatom” successfully builds the nuclear power plant “Akkuyu“ in Turkey.
No “special mode“ for Putin
Despite all these connections, Erdogan, in the classic manner of an authoritarian leader, has no qualms about humiliating the Russian leader when the opportunity arises. If press reports are to be believed, Putin insisted that his plane be escorted by Russian fighter jets, fearing possible Ukrainian fire. But Erdogan reminds him in a very elegant way that Turkey is a member of NATO.
The Turkish president flirts with the Kremlin only when it pleases him. The Russians were apparently told that Turkey could not allow their fighters in because NATO air defenses could mistake them for military purposes – a not-so-subtle hint that Turkish air defenses have already had to shoot down Russian warplanes.
Putin has no tools to coerce Erdogan
Erdogan has been waiting for Putin's visit for two years and is apparently ready to wait even longer. Authoritarian alpha males play their usual games, trying to outwit each other in any way they can, because in their world, the outcome of the negotiations depends on it. And, I suspect they even take some pleasure in this competition.
However, this does not change the main point. Erdogan is happy to cooperate with Putin, but it seems that he is expected to visit him either in the role of a dutiful “number two” in the South Caucasus, or at least with a draft peace treaty with Ukraine. The other options are not favorable enough for Erdogan, and Putin does not have the tools to force the Turkish leader to play by the Kremlin's rules.
***
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial team and of DV as a whole.