Why, in my opinion, the scenario of Rumen Radev using his New Year's address to announce his withdrawal and start a party project is unlikely and more of an element of a backstage battle.
First of all, the New Year's address is a festive format and an institutional act of the head of state. Using it for a personal or party announcement would not just be a manifestation of bad taste, but a frank own goal – an intrusion that would devalue both the message and his position. This argument alone is enough, but there are others.
Secondly, the constant story with the unborn Petko began to annoy me - when and how Radev will launch a party project. At some point, it simply devalued from speculation - probably this is the purpose of constantly raising it in the air. It is not clear who supports this topic - whether enthusiasts from his circle, eager to enter the party arena, or his opponents - mostly Borisov and Peevski - who have prepared the artillery - at least this is what the formal logic indicates. But you may be surprised - it is no coincidence that Borisov and Radev meet unannounced, with the initiative almost always being Borisov's.
Thirdly, I do not believe that Radev will not complete the constitutional procedure - the handing over of mandates and the announcement of the election date. This is the logical and institutionally correct move. Any other scenario traps him in a dead end - "is he president or a political competitor", in which he loses in both roles at the same time.
Therefore, if there is at all a good moment to leave the presidential institution and start a party project, it should be considered in a completely different context - the next early elections, if the current ones do not produce a government. Then Radev would be in a significantly stronger position.
An additional factor would be the synchronization with the start of Iliana Yotova's presidential campaign. She does not have her own party or electoral base - the BSP is too weak to play this role - and her greatest resource is the opportunity to lead the campaign from the position of acting president and by stepping into Radev's shoes. It is no coincidence that she has been on the screen lately.
It is precisely this temporal and institutional context that would be far more logical than any New Year's political fireworks.
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