German terrorism expert says he too did not expect second wave of explosions in Lebanon where walkie-talkies went off , used by Hezbollah activists. According to him, this could mean that the organization's entire supply chain had been infiltrated by the Israelis. “Therefore, if I were in the place of the Lebanese militia, I would turn off all possible devices, because I don't know if something else will not follow,” says Neumann in an interview with the German public media ARD.
Neumann is an expert at King's College London, where he directs the International Center for the Study of Radicalization. He believes that this second wave of explosions is a kind of act of psychological warfare in which the Israelis sent a clear message: "we hold you in our hands".
Spies in Hezbollah's ranks?
Such an operation requires very precise planning: the devices must be loaded with explosives, and in addition, a signal must be sent to them to trigger the explosions. The Israelis have done something similar in the past, recalls Peter Neumann in this regard. In the 1990s, a Hamas leader was similarly killed: they stole his cell phone, planted an explosive device in it, and then blew it up. But in that case it was about one phone, not 3,000 like now. “The scale, quality and quantity of this operation are truly unprecedented”, the German expert told ARD.
When asked if it was possible that Hezbollah had been infiltrated by Israeli agents, Neumann recalled that Hezbollah is Israel's number one espionage target – along with Iran. It is seen as the most important strategic threat directly on the border with Israel.
„All possible communications are intercepted, but also rely on informants – of spies in Hezbollah who have information and communications. And in this case, I strongly suspect that there is a network of fictitious companies, including in Europe, which are probably trying to enter Hezbollah's supply chain, the terrorism expert told ARD.
Major military action?
"This is the kind of unconventional warfare that the Israelis are also known for,", Neumann continues. Their purpose, he believed, was to use a form of psychological warfare to derange the enemy, throw him into chaos, and render him unable to fight. “The big question now is whether the Israelis will be able to turn the tactical success into a strategic one. Because the action simply sent Hezbollah into a state of shock. But how will the Israelis benefit from this success and will it bring them benefits and long-term success at all?“, asks the expert.
When asked if a larger military operation by Israel against Hezbollah can be expected, Peter Neumann says: “Yes, the Israeli Defense Minister has already announced this. And by the way, he is not the first. Israelis have been saying for months that a change of direction is coming. Hamas was for Israel, so to speak, a tactical danger, but Hezbollah is for them the strategic danger in which they see the long arm of Iran. It is possible that with these attacks now Israel wants to weaken Hezbollah to such an extent that the organization will not be able to respond to a possible strike at all. According to Neumann, it is possible that an even bigger Israeli offensive is coming in the coming days.
What will Iran do?
And what reaction can be expected from Iran? To this question, the German expert answers as follows: “After the assassination of the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniya, Iran showed quite a lot of restraint. There was probably also a lot of pressure from the Americans, and probably from Russia and China as well. The question is what might come next now that the pressure has reached a tipping point. There are still ways to get out of this dangerous situation, but of course it can escalate”.
Peter Neumann expresses hope that Israel has some sort of strategic plan and says: “But that is always the problem with Israel - it achieves great tactical successes, but what is its strategic plan, what is its political goal? How to turn tactical success into lasting peace? How to permanently eliminate an opponent? These questions often remain unanswered,” says Peter Neumann, an expert on terrorism issues for ARD.
Author: Stefan Schlag ARD