Comment by Daniel Smilov:
Almost no one notices that the elections are approaching. And that's because few know why we will vote again. Last time we voted because GERB had decided that instead of PP-DB, it would be more convenient for them to govern with MRF and someone like ITN. This plan almost came true, but it failed due to the split in MRF.
The meaning of the seventh parliamentary elections
Now, however, no one knows why we are going to the elections and what to expect from them. It is clear that Delyan Peevski aims to take control of MRF after the Supreme Court gave him the name and registration of this party in a friendly way. It is known that GERB and DPS-Peevski want to be in power or at least for no one else to rule, because if someone else rules, the prosecutorial-investigative umbrella over their leaders may not withstand the accumulated corruption slag. PP-DB, on the other hand, are going to the elections with the desire, if nothing else - at least to be a guarantee that Bulgaria will not deviate from its European path of free democracy. A noble task, but how many elections have been won with nobility in our country? "Vazrazhdane" is going to the elections with the aim of Bulgaria deviating from its Euro-Atlantic path in a Russian-Soviet direction. For the BSP, these are the elections of relief - Kornelia Nininova is no longer there and the party's active members are throwing hats in the air and opening coalition valences left and right. ITN is listening and is preparing to demand even more power and resources in exchange for support for a government. After the last elections, their greed seemed to startle even Delyan Peevski, who immediately found their replacements in a possible governing format - and great replacements at that.
To summarize, there is one coalition that works for the state interest, there is also one party that openly works against it, and the rest mostly work for themselves. With such material, it will be difficult to form a government in the common interest. Instead, it will most likely be a coalition of GERB, DPS-Peevski, BSP and ITN (or some replacements). "Vazrazhdane" is being used as a scarecrow so that some strange coalition can sell itself as a Euro-Atlantic savior. The scarecrow will also be waved around to put pressure on PP-DB to possibly join the government.
There are two issues on which GERB and Borisov are silent. One is Peevski, and the other is the kopecks from "Vazrazhdane". Silence is a signal of a hidden and indecent partnership. In some very unfortunate distribution of international cards - Donald Trump back in power, a crisis in the EU, a bad development of the war in Ukraine - it is not excluded that "Vazrazhdane" will be invited to govern. But at the very least, they are useful in their role as a scarecrow - against their background, who wouldn't look Euro-Atlantic?
Otherwise, it is quite shameful that the Bulgarian parliament is considering a "Vazrazhdane" bill on "foreign agents" in committees. The problem is not that this law is Russian, not American. A careful analysis would show that in the US foreign agents are people who have officially agreed to lobby for foreign governments in Washington and receive money for it. In Russian fashion, the Bulgarian bill aims to declare as agents all those who have used foreign funding for any purpose. Even if they were to impose a series of prohibitions on them - not to teach, not to speak publicly, not to engage in anything political, etc.
The problem is that this bill - whether it is Russian or Bulgarian - is actually openly fascist. The logic is to put a shameful badge on the lapel of certain people and to forbid them access to the public sphere. In the early years of the Nazi regime in Germany, things started exactly like this - Jews were banned from teaching, being lawyers, being involved in politics, going to the pool, driving a car, etc., and then slowly it got to the camps.
Many wondered why NGOs did not show up en masse at the parliamentary hearing on the obscurantist law. In fact, this hearing was not intended for them, but for Bulgarians in general. With the "Vazrazhdane" law asks people if they want to be ruled by violence. And they also brought along some klutzes who shouted that they wanted and "feared" others. It would be a shame if these elections turned out to be a legitimization of the politics of violence due to the disillusionment of normal people and "voting fatigue".
Things have reached a tipping point
In short, these elections are hardly noticeable and people behave as if they are not important. But with a low turnout of "disappointed" voters of the pro-European parties, they can send the country into the hands of very unprincipled coalitions, in which the law on the so-called foreign agents will be the smallest bargaining chip: the eurozone and Bulgaria's involvement in Europe in general may be in question.
This is not an election scare: things have simply reached a certain tipping point, which may happen not because of the assertiveness of the kopecks, but because of the fatigue of the majority. It is true that seven elections in less than four years is a sad record, but it is still better for a person to get tired of elections than from the fact that no one asks him about anything.
And nothing is predetermined. As sociologists say, we know the snapshot of the distribution of power. This picture can easily change in one direction or another - this is the meaning of election campaigns. The moment is responsible and deceptively calm. However, in fact, nothing is calm in Bulgarian politics at the moment and quite fundamental changes are underway. Those who do not participate in the process with their voice will not be among the winners.