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"It's no coincidence": why China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean for the first time in decades

The Pentagon predicts that China will double the number of its operational nuclear warheads from about 500 now to 1,000 by the end of the decade

Sep 26, 2024 23:01 117

"It's no coincidence": why China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean for the first time in decades  - 1
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The fact that an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launched by China fell into the Pacific Ocean for the first time in decades is no coincidence. China is expanding its nuclear arsenal and wants to demonstrate its operational readiness, the newspaper "Neue Zürcher Zeitung", quoted by BTA.

Yesterday, the Chinese army launched an ICBM, which can be equipped with nuclear warheads, into the Pacific Ocean for the first time in decades. The Chinese Ministry of Defense said the missile landed in the intended area and that it was a routine exercise.

The unusual target has drawn increased attention.

It is not known whether it is a new type of missile. The target area is unusual - China usually tests its missiles in the desert regions of Xinjiang. The last such tests were carried out in 2021.

As far as is known, the last time a Chinese intercontinental ballistic missile landed in the Pacific Ocean was in 1980. The fact that this target area has now been chosen again may indicate a political message that Beijing wants to send. Therefore, the unusual target means that the test is attracting more attention than usual, notes the "Neue Zürcher Zeitung".

In 2022 The Chinese military fired five missiles during military exercises that landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone, sparking protests from Tokyo, the Guardian reports.

The then Japanese Defense Minister, Nobuo Kishi, said the missiles "threaten Japan's national security and the lives of the Japanese people, which we strongly condemn."

China regularly tests short- and medium-range missiles on Chinese territory and over waters in the western Pacific Ocean as part of its "large, well-funded and technologically advanced ballistic missile program," the Guardian quoted Drew Thompson of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore as saying. However, testing an intercontinental ballistic missile is unusual.

The last such launch was in 1980, when the country sent its first developed ICBM - the – – "Dong Feng-5" into the Pacific Ocean. Analysts suggest that the ICBM tested on Wednesday may have been the "Dong Feng-41", which has a range of 12,000-15,000 km, or its predecessor, which can hit targets at a distance of 7,200-8,000 km.

Beijing probably wants to use the test to send a signal that the operational readiness of its missile forces is guaranteed, notes "Neue Zürcher Zeitung". These forces are responsible for both nuclear-tipped and conventional missiles. In recent years, several high-ranking generals in this branch of the armed forces have been removed from office and convicted of corruption. After these waves of purges, various Western experts have questioned the operational capabilities of the troops.

The Pacific Ocean is also the area used by the United States to test intercontinental ballistic missiles. They have a special test center in the Marshall Islands. The missiles, which are usually launched from California, land near this center. The United States last tested a "Minuteman" missile in June. With Wednesday's test in the Pacific, China may want to show that it is perceived as an equal nuclear power to the United States.

Beijing relies heavily on missile silos

Beijing has the so-called nuclear triad, which means it can launch nuclear warheads from the air, land and sea. The focus, however, is on intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are launched from silos in the ground. According to estimates by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), about two-thirds, or approximately 350, of China's nuclear warheads are stored in missile silos.

Satellite images and other indications indicate that China is significantly expanding its nuclear arsenal. According to US estimates, by 2030 the country will have 1,000 warheads. At the same time, Beijing is building new nuclear weapons delivery systems. For example, 300 new missile silos have been built in the barren expanses of the western part of the country - whether all of them are equipped with missiles is unknown.

For a little over a year, a Jin-class submarine equipped with nuclear missiles has also been on constant patrol. This gives China a credible maritime deterrent, the US Department of Defense noted last year. Beijing has not commented on the reasons for expanding its nuclear arsenal. The official doctrine is still that China will never be the first to use nuclear weapons and that it seeks only a minimal deterrent. However, American observers suspect that Beijing is trying to build an arsenal comparable to that of the United States and Russia. Each of these countries has about 1,700 operational nuclear warheads.

Beijing attacks nuclear weapons sharing

Despite its obvious, rapid armament, China is trying to present itself as a responsible nuclear power. In July, China's mission to the UN called on the other four veto-wielding powers to also abide by their "no-first-use" commitments. What sounds peaceful, however, is an indirect attack on the US strategy of bringing other countries like Germany or the Netherlands under its nuclear umbrella by sharing nuclear weapons, the Neue Zürcher Zeitung reported.

The Chinese statement stated that "the nuclear-weapon state in question must abandon the nuclear-weapon-sharing and comprehensive deterrence agreement and withdraw all nuclear weapons deployed abroad to its own territory." Some voices are calling for similar nuclear-weapon-sharing agreements for US allies in East Asia, namely South Korea and Japan. Beijing wants to prevent this at all costs.

Thompson noted that in test launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles - such as those conducted by North Korea - the missiles are typically launched at high altitudes, still traveling a long distance, but landing closer to the launch site than what appeared to have happened in China's test on Wednesday. He said China's decision to launch the missile at a long distance was clearly to send a message.

"This is not necessarily a political signal, although the Chinese military is the armed wing of the Chinese Communist Party and everything related to the CCP is political," Thompson said. "But it comes at a time when China has significantly heightened tensions with Japan, with the Philippines, Taiwan, of course, and tensions related to political uncertainty with the United States. This is a tense time. This is also the week of the United Nations General Assembly. China is sending a strong signal about the power it can project around the world." "This move is intended to make it clear that strategic deterrence is still working," Alexander Neal, a fellow at the Pacific Forum think tank in Hawaii, told Reuters. The headline with which the "South China Morning Post" reported the test is telling: "With launch into the Pacific Ocean, China tests intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the mainland of the United States."

The publication notes that this is the first known test of an intercontinental ballistic missile carried out by the Chinese military in 44 years. The specific model of the missile tested is not specified, but the following is mentioned: "China's latest known intercontinental ballistic missile is the DF-41, which first entered service in 2017 and has an operational range of up to 12,000-15,000 km, capable of reaching the continental United States."

"Al Jazeera" points out that this missile model was first shown in 2019 during celebrations marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. The warhead of this type of missile, specifies "Newsweek", could consist of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), capable of hitting multiple targets at a distance of up to 15,000 km.

The Pentagon predicts that China will double the number of its operational nuclear warheads from about 500 now to 1,000 by the end of the decade.