Can a free and democratic Ukraine have a future without NATO? This serious issue, which Kiev's allies have repeatedly postponed, was at the heart of Thursday's meeting of the alliance's defense ministers. The invitation to NATO is at the top of the "victory plan" presented in Brussels by Volodymyr Zelensky, writes political analyst Isabelle Lasser in an article for the French newspaper Le Figaro.
According to Kiev, the period between the US elections and the inauguration of the new president in January may offer an "opportunity" of Joe Biden. "He has a chance to make history by bequeathing Ukraine an invitation to NATO membership. This would correct the mistakes of previous democratic administrations that contributed to the denuclearization of Ukraine," explains Alyona Getmanchuk, director of the New Europe Center think tank. The rapprochement between Ukraine and the Atlantic Alliance is considered extremely important by Ukrainians. Faced with difficulties on the eastern front, they need Western security guarantees to face Russia, backed by its allies (China, Iran, North Korea). Integration into the Alliance will take place gradually, in stages. "Waiting for the war to end, one can imagine, in order to ensure the security of Ukraine before its full accession to NATO, a coalition of the determined, with military participation in the defense of Ukraine by countries that have the capacity and political will to this", continues Alyona Getmanchuk.
The Trump Hypothesis
If the weather is so short, it is also because the winds blowing across the Atlantic are getting worse and worse. "Kamala Harris' strategy is to avoid conflict. Its foreign policy is unclear. We got the impression that she does not understand the issues of international politics. This will undoubtedly slow down American engagement in Europe," explains Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, president of the German Marshall Fund (GMF). Phil Gordon, Kamala Harris' possible future national security adviser, is the one blocking aid to Ukraine. In the eastern part of the continent, the Democratic candidate is seen as the successor to Barack Obama, the man of the "reboot" of Vladimir Putin's Russia. Aid to Ukraine could also be blocked again if the Senate turns Republican after the November election. The future for Ukrainians would be even bleaker if Donald Trump wins. The Republican candidate promised to end the war by talking to Vladimir Putin. He also wants to reduce the amount of aid to Ukraine. A deal between Trump and Putin would turn the war into a frozen conflict, destined to be reheated according to Kremlin interests. But is it that clear? East of the former Iron Curtain, some see things differently. "What Donald Trump fears is that the United States looks like a weak country. If abandoning Ukraine is seen as a sign of weakness, he may change horses," hopes Giga Bokeria, the leader of the Georgian opposition. He could also clash with Vladimir Putin if the Russian president proves too intransigent. "Trump is more open than Kamala Harris to transactional diplomacy and change. He was the first to supply us with weapons. Generally speaking, democratic administrations have always been much less favorable to us than republican administrations," adds Alyona Getmanchuk.
Gradual relaxation
Despite his desire to reduce the American presence in the Middle East, Donald Trump struck Syria in 2017 after a chemical attack carried out by the regime of Bashar al-Assad, thereby erasing, drawing the American red line, the humiliation of withdrawing Barack Obama four years earlier. "Trump surprised us in Syria, he may change his mind. It is an illusion to describe him as an isolationist. He knows how to be interventionist when he thinks America is weak. He can use military force if he feels humiliated or cheated by Vladimir Putin. And the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are receptive to these ideas," explains the GMF director.
Meanwhile, from the US side, we are seeing more of a gradual relaxation on Ukraine. "The Peace Plan" of Volodymyr Zelensky and his knocking on NATO's door are drawing mixed reactions from his allies. "Joe Biden won't even half-open the Alliance's door to Ukraine. Because if it does, the United States will be forced to intervene directly and long-term in the security of Ukraine, or even intervene because of Article 5. Since America does not want to interfere, Ukraine risks remaining in a gray area, with mainly European guarantees of security and uncertainty for the future", regrets Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer. Bitterness is running high in Kiev, where people are being reminded that while the Ukrainians are withdrawing in the Donbass, they still hold positions in Russia's Kursk region, occupied since August. "The Kursk operation was a huge success, but the Americans, instead of taking advantage of the opportunity to weaken Russia and strengthen Ukraine, criticize us. They would rather we prepare to sign peace. They want to force us to negotiate," regrets the director of the "New Europe" Center.
According to information from Le Figaro, the confirmed ban on Ukrainians using Western long-range weapons to strike military targets in Russia is not only due to fear of "escalation". After the escalation of the war in the Middle East, the United States asked Russian officials to try to restrain Iran in its response against Israel. This was discussed by US and Russian foreign ministers Anthony Blinken and Sergey Lavrov at the ASEAN summit last week. "This type of initiative has a price. "The Russians are demanding a reduction in US military aid to Ukraine, as well as keeping NATO's door double-locked," says a diplomat. At the same time, while re-engaging in the Middle East, America is losing interest in Ukraine, which it would like the Europeans to take care of entirely. "Today, no NATO member can oppose Ukraine's entry into the Alliance. Joe Biden will no doubt give a very persuasive speech on the subject, but it will have no practical meaning. He will in no way hold Donald Trump accountable if he is elected," a European diplomat predicted. Therefore, the fate of Ukraine rests more and more on European shoulders.
Alona Getmanchuk is convinced: "Either Europe wakes up and helps us win, or a bigger war is looming."