After the invasion of Ukraine, Russia received a red card from the international community. But Moscow is trying to demonstrate that it remains an active global player whose influence in the world is only growing after the sanctions adopted against it. If not in Europe, then at least in the countries of the Global South. Especially in Africa: here Russia is quickly filling the void left by the weakening of attention to this region by the West - the US, France and Great Britain.
One of the Kremlin's tools for this promotion is the first ministerial meeting of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum, which will be held on November 9-10 in the Sirius Federal Territory (Krasnodar Krai, Russian Federation).
The organizers of the conference write that “the event with the participation of the heads of relevant departments is aimed at strengthening comprehensive cooperation between Russia and African countries in all its dimensions: politics, security, economy, scientific, technical, cultural and humanitarian spheres . ” Behind this are the words that Russian diplomacy uses so masterfully: violence, murders, robberies, coups, dictatorship.
Today, Africa is a continent with a full range of security threats: territorial disputes, political radicalism, religious fundamentalism, terrorism, backwardness and weak state institutions. For any country, such a breeding ground for problems represents an opportunity to achieve its goals. The Kremlin does not think about the consequences of its actions for African countries.
Russian representatives often claim that the policy of the Russian Federation is aimed at maintaining stability and cooperation in Africa. But its intervention in Libya, Sudan, Mali, the Central African Republic, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mozambique is often accompanied by intensified interstate, ethnic and religious conflicts, which leads to the destabilization of the countries, which fall further into chaos.
By invading Africa, Moscow brings war and famine, increases political instability and the weakness of state institutions, worsens the environmental situation and increases technological dependence on Russia. Although Putin accuses the West and former metropolises of neo-colonialism, the methods used by the Russians to establish control over African countries are completely imperialistic.
For Putin, Africa is a “battlefield” with the USA, Great Britain, France with the use of proxy power – Russian private military companies. But the participation of Russian companies in the development of the continent's natural resources, their control over deposits of uranium, diamonds and others is no less important for the Kremlin. Russia is also interested in controlling the continuous logistics chain from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean.
Finally, African countries voting at the UN on resolutions regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine is also important to the Kremlin: Africa makes up 25% of UN member states. During the vote, most countries on the continent maintained a neutral position. Moreover, the number of countries supporting Russia and the number of countries condemning it are approximately the same.
Russia is trying to strengthen its position in Africa as a counterweight to Western influence. Often in symbiosis with China. But often in conflict with it. All this leads to increased geopolitical competition and erosion of trust in the organizations and countries involved in Africa's security problems.
To advance its interests, Russia uses anti-Western sentiments in the elites of various African countries, Africans' memories of the USSR's economic and military aid during the Cold War, the pro-Russian lobby and corrupt regimes.
Russia often builds relationships with authoritarian leaders of African countries, supporting them with arms supplies. This helps strengthen the power of dictators, who often suppress opposition and violate human rights, leading to internal conflicts and deepening instability.
The Kremlin's bet on authoritarian regimes leads to the weakening of democratic institutions in African countries, the systematic violation of human rights and the destruction of freedom. As a rule, African rulers are interested in the development of their countries only in the context of strengthening their power, its succession through family lines or through closed agreements between elites.
The Kremlin also actively supports the military that came to power as a result of coups: under pressure and isolation from the West, the juntas need at least partial international recognition, military and political support. They are assisted by mercenaries closely linked to the Russian Ministry of Defense. The most famous are PMC Wagner and the African Corps.
In addition to conducting military operations against the rebels, Russian mercenaries train the armies of the Central African Republic, Mali, Niger and other African countries, protect strategic sites, and also provide security for senior state officials. But as reports by international human rights organizations show, these mercenaries often commit war crimes against civilians, exacerbating humanitarian crises.
For example, the UN has accused Russian mercenaries and Central African Republic government troops of looting houses, taking over schools and killing civilians, including worshipers in mosques where rebels are hiding. The international human rights organization Human Rights Watch has accused Mali's armed forces and PMC Wagner mercenaries of involvement in looting, torture, as well as extrajudicial killings and disappearances of civilians in the central part of the country.
Moscow has most successfully strengthened its position in the Sahel zone, stretching from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger are actively developing cooperation with Russia, which supports the juntas that came to power. Last year, these countries signed a mutual defense agreement with the Russian Federation and left the ECOWAS regional association, and Mali ended its agreement with UN peacekeeping forces.
The actions of Russian PMC fighters create the appearance of an effective solution to the problem of Tuareg separatists and Al Qaeda fighters. But the problem is not solved. This does not prevent Russia from already establishing control over gold and uranium mines on favorable terms. This leads to increased dependence of the countries of the region on Russia and deepens the internal crises of the already unstable states.
At the same time, Russia has very weak economic ties with African countries: their main partners are the USA, the EU and China. Of foreign investment flowing into Africa, the Russian Federation accounts for less than 1%. But Moscow supplies African countries with almost half of all the weapons they buy abroad: Russia sells weapons without criticizing the human rights situation.
Selling arms becomes political influence. But for Russia, it is also a profitable market for its products. In August 2021, the director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Shugaev, said that arms supplies to Africa represent 30-40% of the total volume of Russian arms exports.
To strengthen its own positions in Africa, the Kremlin actively uses anti-Western rhetoric. Moscow is reopening the unhealed wounds of African countries' colonial past, blaming the West for their economic problems and political instability. The Russians organize special information campaigns, spreading through the media and social networks propaganda materials aimed at discrediting the USA, the EU and the UN.
These information campaigns also increase the tension between ethnic groups and political forces, which contributes to the destabilization of the situation in the region. But this is true, a side effect: judging by how popular portraits of Putin and Russian flags are in some African countries, and how happily they burn the flags of the United States and France, Russia's multimillion-dollar investment in the work of the Sputnik agency and the RT television company is paying off .
At the same time, many residents of African countries do not believe that Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has led to a decrease in the supply of Ukrainian wheat and an increase in grain prices on the world market, which could lead to hunger for East Africa. The continent is the most food insecure region in the world, with 278 million people - 20% of Africa's population - suffering from chronic hunger.
In 2022, Russia partially blockaded Ukraine's Black Sea ports, which severely affected grain exports. For Africa, this has led to supply delays and grain shortages, as sea transport plays a key role in supplying the continent with food. In July 2023, Russia officially withdrew from the “grain deal”, further complicating African countries' access to Ukrainian grain.
Putin, hypocritically accusing the West of violating the “grain deal”, stated that Russia is able to replace Ukrainian grain “both on a commercial basis and in the form of grants”. In the best Kremlin propaganda traditions, he organized demonstration deliveries of small quantities of fertilizers and wheat to African countries.
The catastrophic scenario of mass starvation was avoided: Ukraine, despite Russia's withdrawal from the “grain deal” and constant missile attacks on Ukrainian ports and cargo ships, continued to transport wheat across the Black Sea. But the history of grain supplies to African countries shows how the actions of the Russian bear contribute to increasing instability and conflicts in the African “store”.
The presence of Russian private military companies, support for authoritarian regimes and control over natural resources are deepening internal conflicts in a number of African countries. Geopolitical competition with the West and Russian information operations are also raising tensions in the region. Together, these factors make it difficult to achieve stability and security in Africa, leading to an increase in conflict and the suffering of local populations.