It doesn't matter who is in the White House home - this has always been Beijing's official position. But very soon Donald Trump may cause serious worries for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, writes Alexander Goerlach.
At the end of his term, US President Joe Biden met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Brazil. Most participants in this meeting were interested in one thing - what will be the impact of the policies of the new-old US President Donald Trump on other countries?
Most analysts in Beijing believed that it would not matter much for China who would become the president of the United States - Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. The two candidates and their parties had similar messages when it came to China.
Trump is different
But are the Chinese wrong and will they miss Joe Biden? Unlike Republicans, Democrats have declared themselves constructive and open communication, even when it does not benefit the United States. However, this is favorable to Xi and his nomenclature because it allows China time to separate itself economically from the rest of the world and potentially fully prepare its military. For example, an invasion of free and democratic Taiwan or a complete blockade of the North Philippine Sea, which Beijing considers its own contrary to the law - as is the case with Taiwan.
So what Xi Jinping told Joe Biden in Brazil was actually aimed at Donald Trump: Washington should not interfere in the "Taiwan issue," as Beijing calls it, any more than in other conflicts with almost all the Asian countries that Xi fired up during his 12 years at the helm of China.
Trump has already threatened Beijing with an additional 60 percent increase on Chinese imports. He probably won't be startled by Xi's warnings. Because the Chinese leader is in a much worse economic situation now than he was in 2016.
China has serious economic problems
China's economy collapsed at the time, with growth falling short of the government's target of 5.5 percent last year. Youth unemployment has reached levels of over 20 percent. Several shootings with casualties were linked to the poor economic situation in the country. For example, a man drove his car into a group of schoolgirls on a playground in southern China.
Xi Jinping is also responsible for the collapse of the real estate market and the banking crisis. As a result of all this, domestic consumption has fallen, dashing Xi's dreams of Chinese economic independence. That is why the Chinese leader wooed the European leaders in Brazil and offered them free access to the Chinese market. Other Chinese presidents have made similar promises. In fact, foreign companies have never had access to a market that hardly fits the Western definition of "free”.
Less for Ukraine, more against China?
Currently, it looks like the old new US President Donald Trump will continue his course on China in his second term. Michael Waltz, Trump's first choice for national security adviser, is seen as a hardliner who wants to deal with China with a firm hand. The same applies to Marco Rubio, who is in the running for secretary of state.
Trump is unlikely to send more US troops to defend Taiwan. However, it seems as if the US will continue to support the democratic territory. Hardliners from Trump's team even want support for Ukraine to be reduced or even completely stopped, and the freed up resource to be used against China. Such a move could not have been made under Biden's leadership, which gave more opportunities to China. Xi will certainly miss Biden.