In January, Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership agreement in the Kremlin - it was a signal to the world that the two countries isolated from the West were getting closer. And only five months later - after the Israeli attack on Iran, Russia seems to have no desire to help its partner, writes ARD. The agreement, signed at the beginning of the year, does not include an obligation for military defense, but the Iranian regime most likely expected something more than warm words when it sent the country's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to visit Moscow.
What Putin does not want
Russia can actually gain from the war in the region - the higher the oil prices, the better for Moscow, notes ARD. However, for Putin, the situation is not at all simple. He clearly does not want to intervene militarily, especially because he is waging a war in Ukraine. He does not want and cannot afford a confrontation with Israel because of Iran.
The delicate relations that Putin is building with Trump's US are also politically important. The Russian president definitely does not want to anger Trump, after he has just managed to position himself as an equal to the American president and break some of the isolation that his country had fallen into. This could also lead to the lifting of some of the sanctions against Moscow. Putin is by no means isolated in the rest of the world, and in some of the countries that Putin considers to be in his camp and that rely on his support, people are probably now wondering in amazement whether Russia is abandoning yet another ally in the Middle East.
The fall of the Assad regime – A blow to Russia
When triumphant Syrian exiles last year raised Syria's new flag from the balcony of the Syrian embassy in Moscow, not far from the Kremlin, it was the final proof that Russia had lost its most important partner in the Middle East. Putin was unable or unwilling to do anything to save Bashar Assad.
At first, Moscow sent a few fighter jets, but quickly gave up and left its ally to its fate, ARD recalls. The Syrian dictator suddenly fell from power and fled with his family to Moscow. The collapse of the Assad regime was a serious blow to Russian ambitions in the Middle East.
Phase of new influence
Under the Assad regime, Syria became a pillar of Russian policy in the Middle East. Ten years ago, Russia intervened militarily in the civil war and has since kept Assad in power with fighter jets and bombs - and a devastating civil war that has lasted for years. Russia has had military bases in the country, including the strategically important port of Tartus, thanks to which it has gained its own access to the Mediterranean Sea. Moscow has regained its former influence and, as in the days of the Soviet Union, has once again become an important player in the complex power structure of the region.
Russia has also tied itself to other countries in the Middle East - for example, it has joined the expanded cartel of oil producers OPEC+. This has meant both a rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and additional opportunities for influence over the Persian Gulf states, writes ARD. In a complex balancing act, Putin has long maintained good relations with Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, too, in an effort to establish himself as a mediator and Middle East expert no one can ignore.
Two Isolated Countries Draw Closer
Russia has also sought rapprochement with Iran. They fought together against Assad’s opponents in Syria, and later, when Russia launched its own war in Ukraine, another commonality emerged: Like Tehran, Moscow faces increasingly tough Western sanctions. Trade between the two ostracized countries has grown, and Russia has become the largest foreign investor in Iran. Iran also supplied the drones that were particularly important to Russia, especially during the early months of the war in Ukraine, and later sent technological assistance that allowed Russia to produce such drones itself.
The strategic agreement from the beginning of the year seemed quite logical. Iran and Russia signed it in anticipation of Donald Trump's new term - but no one could have known then to what extent the two countries would become the focus of Trump's attention.
What Putin can still achieve
Now everything is different - Trump has reached out to Putin and shaken his fist at Iran. The Russian president could now try to play the role of mediator. If he wants to keep the Iranian regime as his conduit of influence in the region, without jeopardizing his relations with others, and also impressing Trump - the role of mediator is his only chance.
Whether his contacts will be enough to achieve anything substantial is still unclear. If he fails to do so, Putin will be forced to choose between his old ally Iran and Trump's United States.
Luxurious exile
Assad and his entourage are said to still be in Russia. The dictator's family is said to be living in expensive apartments in Moscow's glitzy business district. Luxurious exile - in the end, that turned out to be all Russia could offer its former ally. If the Iranian regime does indeed collapse as a result of the war, Moscow could also prove a safe haven for the ayatollahs.
Author: Ina Rook ARD