The votes of Laurer and Bozhankov from the PP-DB failed the election of Silvi Kirilov as chairman of the National Assembly. PP asked to exclude them from the PG of the party, and DB are categorically against this decision. Why did it come to this and what should we expect?
Two votes failed on Thursday the election of the oldest MP Silvi Kirilov from "There is such a people". for the chairman of the 51st parliament, and with it the possibility of a caretaker government, which is not tied to GERB and figures like the sanctioned for corruption Peevski - and divided the community supporting PP-DB. Because the two votes were from the second parliamentary group of liberals and the urban right, which unites with the nationalist populists and Eurosceptics from "Vazrazhdane", MECH and ITN. Thus, the seventh attempt to elect a chairman of the National Assembly was also unsuccessful.
The two camps
The only MEP of "Democratic Bulgaria" Radan Kanev (EPP) defined this general vote as a "gross and difficult to correct mistake". "No arguments of the type "to stop Sarafov" (acting chief prosecutor and sole candidate for a new chief prosecutor, b.a.) do not justify an alliance with an anti-European, anti-Putin, anti-democratic and anti-market political formation. Not in today's geopolitical moment, and in my opinion - never", he wrote on Facebook. Part of the supporters of the PP-DB agree with this thesis, the other believes that those who did not vote for Kirilov - Yavor Bozhankov, a civilian quota in the PP, and Daniel Laurer, are "traitors", "servants of Borisov/Peevski". and they fully deserve to leave parliament. "The result (of their voting, b.a.) is in favor of Delyan Peevski, who got to the parliament by buying votes and forging protocols," commented on Facebook the former prime minister and co-chairman of the PG of PP-DB Nikolay Denkov .
A few hours after the vote, the PP announced that by decision of the Executive Committee it had excluded Laurer, who is one of the founders of the party and in the narrow party leadership.
But against his expulsion together with Bozhankov from the parliamentary group of the coalition, DB objected - the formation, which initially also did not want to support the ITN candidate because of "value differences" with "Revival". In just two days, DB changed its position by 180 degrees. At first, she remained in the plenary hall, but did not vote - with the argument that "it neither helps nor hinders,'' as explained by the DB, although de facto her actions reduced the quorum. But that didn't help Kirilov's election either.
Then he changed his position and proposed a compromise mechanism, according to which each parliamentary group would delegate an equal number of votes for the election of the president - seven each, but without DB. In the end, the union decided to give "one time support" for Silvi Kirilov with the proviso that this does not mean any majority - in order to unblock the work of the parliament. However, it is de facto a floating majority. But the help did not work because of Laurer and Bozhankov, whose right to express an opinion different from the voting of the PP-DB group was supported by MPs from the DB with posts on social networks.
These contradictory positions of "Democratic Bulgaria" are difficult to communicate. It seems that they were persuaded by their larger partner to support Kirilov, despite public statements that they would not, in order not to be "packaged" with the pro-Russian "Revival". Just three months ago, Kiril Petkov claimed that European values cannot be passed on and how Kostadin Kostadinov's party is pushing "fascist texts" with the so-called is a law against "gender propaganda" in a school supported by GERB.
Long-term risks
But it turned out that the "pro-Kremlin agents of influence", as Radan Kanev defined them, can be easily swallowed up and the stake is hardly only the election of the Speaker of the Parliament. PP-DB's assurances that this will prevent the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) from electing Borislav Sarafov as chief prosecutor, admitted for a hearing on January 16, are not convincing. GERB-SDS has already asked the Constitutional Court (CS) to interpret whether the parliament has the right to block, with changes to the law, the SJC with an expired mandate from electing a new chief prosecutor.
Undoubtedly, the election of Kirilov would mean a majority and its participants will expect a "reward" for the support. The society does not know what has been agreed against it - ministerial and/or other positions of power under a future caretaker government, quotas in the selection of a political quota in the SJC, which the majority of GERB, PP-DB and DPS failed to do. Obviously, the support was sealed with agreements given the fury in which "Vazrazhdane", ITN and MECH fell after the failed election of Silvi Kirilov.
Allegedly, the temporary alliance of PP-DB with these parties is not only a political move with short-term consequences, but also an indicator of long-term risks. There is a feeling that the coalition is ignoring European principles for short-term goals. The risks of such a course include losing the support of pro-European voters and undermining internal stability in PP-DB.
Disagreements
The consequences of the position of "We continue the change" regarding Daniel Laurer and Yavor Bozhankov, who is from the civil quota - he was previously an MP from the BSP, will resonate both in the coalition with DB and in "We continue the change", where not everyone agrees with their exclusion from their parliamentary group. This is a visible crack in the party created by Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev after the protests against GERB, the prosecutor's office and the conquered judicial system 4 years ago and their participation in the office of President Rumen Radev. The vote for Silvi Kirilov's candidacy revealed internal disagreements in the PP, which claimed to unite the reformist potential of the 2020 protests.
With the opposition of MPs from DB, who will not support the exclusion of Bozhankov and Laurer from the parliamentary group, the coalition looks increasingly unstable, and hopes for an effective management formula are fading. The PP-DB are no longer talking about their promises that their coalition will have a spokesperson, as part of a strategy to present themselves as more organized and coherent and to avoid ambiguity or conflicting public statements from different leaders.
There was also talk of creating decision-making bodies, with regular consultations and discussions on important political issues, in the context of the broader idea of a new political model based on transparency and less centralization. The opposing positions when voting on Silvi Kirilov's candidacy is another proof that no one in the otherwise general PP-DB parliamentary group thinks about such a thing. But the collapse of the coalition will be disastrous for both formations and this difficult union will continue for now.
At the same time "Revival" and ITN strengthen positions as "balancers" who can dictate the agenda of the parliament. Kostadinov's party occupies the territory of anti-GERB and anti-DPS rhetoric, and Slavi Trifonov's formation seems closest to the presidency.
The technology by which they are about to expel Bozhankov and Laurer from the PP-DB, however, is not clear given the fact that there are actually no parliamentary groups. But if it happens, the PP-DB group will equal the number of MPs with that of "Vazrazhdane". - 35, and it is not known who would be given the second exploratory mandate to form a government. If it comes to one at all.
Not to ITN, not to "Vazrazhdane", wrote Bozhankov, who reminded that ITN did not give up on Kirilov being acting prime minister, and he "is not in a position to conduct two or three meetings even in an official capacity". I do not accept the creation of a governing majority with "Revival", Laurer also announced.
Will there be a "sanitary cordon" for "Revival" - or are value differences easier to swallow than Delyan Peevski?
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DV as a whole.