Nikolai MARCHENKO
Paris is increasingly ceding control over Africa to Moscow and Beijing, even though many of the countries on the continent are former French colonies. French President Emmanuel Macron is admitting defeat, as evidenced by his recent statement, which shook public opinion in many former French colonies in Africa and the Middle East.
As is known, over the past decade, France's military involvement in Africa has been aimed at fighting jihadists linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS). But Paris is forced to withdraw from Africa.
“We left because coups d'état began, because we were there at the request of sovereign states who asked us to come...“, the president justified himself, quoted by the newspaper Le Figaro, during a conference of ambassadors held at the Élysée Palace in Paris on January 6, 2025.
But Macron does not mention that the French authorities were forced to evacuate their troops from countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in 2022-2023 due to the fact that the military juntas that took power in these three countries had become closer to Russia. According to Macron, “France no longer has a place there because we are not helpers of coup plotters“.
Macron and the insult of African leaders
But at the same time, completely different words of the French leader caused an unprecedented hype. Macron said that African leaders “forgot to thank“ France because “none of these countries would be sovereign today if it were not for the help of the French army“.
“We suggested to the African leaders that we reorganize our presence. Out of politeness, we allowed them to do so, but in response we received comments that “we were expelled from Africa“, Macron complained.
The President of Burkina Faso, Ibrahim Traoré, who came to power after a coup in 2022 as an army captain and leader of a military junta, responded to the French head of state: “Macron has insulted all Africans”. “This is the way this gentleman sees Africa and Africans. In his eyes, we are not human”, Traoré said.
““If anyone is ungrateful, it is himself”, Traoré replied to Macron. In fact, he said, the French state "exists today thanks to our ancestors": "The French must pray for us."
In recent years, the authorities in Paris have faced unprecedented political rejection, growing hostility and mass protests against the French presence in West Africa. It is no surprise that ordinary citizens of Burkina Faso have also decided to respond to Macron.
"The fight against terrorism was the pretext for the presence of French troops here, but despite their presence, the situation has only worsened," said one resident. According to him, the latest statistics show that after the departure of foreign forces “the intensity of terrorism is decreasing”.
Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Swanko responded to Macron on the social network X, writing that France does not have the necessary legitimacy and authority to maintain security and sovereignty in Africa.
Swanko reminded Macron that the decision to close the French military base was made by his fellow citizens: “Therefore, this statement is absolutely irrelevant for Senegal”. "To this day, there have been no negotiations on this issue, and Senegal has exercised its own will as a free, independent and sovereign country," Swanko said.
"Learn to respect African peoples," Chad's foreign minister and government spokesman Abderamane Koulamalla advised Macron. He drew attention to the fact that Chad played an important role in the liberation of the French state from fascism: "The sacrifices made by African peoples for France during World War II have never been appreciated."
The Senegalese prime minister also sees no reason to thank Paris, because the economic situation in Africa is "broken" and the continent "sacrificed" for the sake of France. "We are a country of stalled development: after 64 years of independence, we still have a colonial economic model, exporting raw materials (gold, fish, peanuts, phosphates, zirconium, etc.) with little added value and importing finished products," says Ousmane Swanko.
His colleagues were joined by Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara, who confirmed that French troops were about to be withdrawn from his country as well.
Isn't it our war?
International and military analysts also criticize Paris's policy on the continent. "France's military intervention in Africa, including Mali, began with Operation Serval, and then continued within the G5 in the Sahel region in 2014 with Operation Barkhane," recalls Algerian political scientist and journalist, professor at the Center for Middle East Studies and associate professor at Istanbul University Dr. Idriss Attia. According to him, "the French were forced to withdraw from Africa": "Because of the growing opposition, the hostility of the local population and the growing anti-French sentiment."
Col. Mamadou Adj, an expert in emergencies and security, believes that with the withdrawal of its troops, Paris is losing its geopolitical potential in the region: “The departure of the French contingent responds to the demands of African countries for sovereignty...“.
The colonel recalls that between 1945 and 1960, there were American military bases in France because “there was a need for security”: “Then General De Gaulle asked the United States to close them”. According to the expert, a similar story is being repeated in Africa. “We also insist on the closure of the French bases, we want full sovereignty”, the analyst states. He recalled that the process began in Mali, followed by Niger, with France's military presence currently remaining only in Djibouti and Gabon.
The colonial economic past as the root of the conflict
But Paris continues to exert a significant influence on the region, believes Moulay Boumgout, a professor of political science and international relations from Algeria: “That is why African countries are escaping French influence“. The analyst cites a UN Human Development Report, according to which 95% of countries that went through French colonization remain below the poverty line. “This is proof of their continued exploitation by France“, Boumgout argues.
How financially dependent is France on its former colonies? “France received about $500 billion. annually from uranium resources, local markets and the financial system of Africa“, assesses the scale of economic interests, Professor of Media and Communication Sciences at the University of Medea (Algeria) Hakim Bougrara. The expert accuses France of profiting from “coups, poverty, marginalization and terrorism on the African continent“.
Amin Blasou, the Algerian writer and researcher, characterizes France's colonial approach with “systematic violence and genocide, physical and cultural destruction of the population“. This, according to him, contrasted sharply with the colonial practice of the British Empire, although exploitative, “avoided the mass genocides inherent to the French“. He gives the example of India, Malaysia and Singapore, colonized by the British, which achieved “economic and political development after independence“, thanks to “institutions and systems created under colonial rule“. “And the countries colonized by France have serious socio-economic and cultural problems while they recover from the heavy colonial legacy“, explains Blasou.
Uninvited guest?
If Macron still receives some of the leaders of Africa and the Middle East individually at the Elysee Palace and signs cooperation agreements, then in the former colonies themselves his emissaries are greeted much more reservedly. On January 3, 2025, unusual guests are expected at Bashar al-Assad's former residence in Damascus. The de facto leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is not wearing his military uniform, but a blue business suit and tie. He welcomed the French and German foreign ministers, Jean-Noël Barrot and Annalena Berbock, to the palace, which was renovated after the pogrom.
But how do analysts see the French minister's visit? "This visit neither brings anything closer nor postpones anything," believes Berlin-based political analyst Radwan Kasem, because "Macron's influence in the Middle East is becoming increasingly insignificant." The expert recalls that in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, the Americans have the decisive say, not the European Union, represented in the region by France. "Paris no longer has any real influence on the situation in Syria for the simple reason: the Europeans are not concerned about what is happening in Syria," the expert believes.
According to Turkish political analyst Hamza Tekin, the French minister who visited Damascus made sure that "the Syrian people have a legitimate government representing their interests." "The cabinet is leading the country out of its difficult past and into a new stage of development after the overthrow of the criminal terrorist regime supported by a number of Western countries," he said, including criticizing Paris for the legacy of Bashar al-Assad. According to him, the situation has changed and "no matter how hard Macron tries, France no longer has significant leverage in Syria."
A small victorious wave
Is Emmanuel Macron leaving Africa to his Russian and Chinese counterparts, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and the Middle East to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the newly appointed US President Donald Trump?
According to Professor Idriss Attia from Algeria, Paris is trying to regain its influence in Africa, acting through its former colonies in Western Sahara “to compensate for the losses on the continent“. "He is using the issue of the Sahrawi Arab Republic for his own benefit and for the benefit of the Moroccan regime, accused of violating democracy and human rights," the analyst claims, linking Macron's cabinet to the King of Morocco.
The French are also trying to restore their influence over Beirut, claims Lebanese writer and political activist Mustafa Fahiz, according to whom Paris, "having lost control of the president, is trying to influence the appointment of a prime minister." "Our fears are that French intervention will restore the power of the same political class that continues to control the country," the activist says. According to him, Paris has become more active after another major terrorist attack: “After the explosion in Beirut on August 4, the French tried to reach a compromise with some Lebanese groups, but this did not improve the situation“.
The question arises, since the French head of state has recently had cabinets, prime ministers and ministers change every few months, and in the cities of his country everyone is protesting for something, why does Emmanuel Macron want a new conflict with the former colonies?
Radwan Kassem tried to answer this question, according to whom “the French continue to face economic and political instability“. “No French government enjoys the trust of parliament, and Macron is wasting his political rating“, the expert explains.
Many world leaders describe Macron as “a politician with serious problems understanding the political reality in his country“, believes Hamza Tekkin: “France was expelled from Africa, and did not leave it of its own accord”. The expert believes that Africans “are getting rid of France economically, militarily and strategically”. Including because of the failed strategic dialogue with the French head of state. “This collapse is due to the failed policies that Macron has been pursuing since he took office”, Tekkin is categorical.
Was it necessary, given the tense situation, for the French president to reflect from the Elysee Palace on the “ingratitude” of Africans is a rhetorical question. But at a symbolic event, such as the ambassadorial reception, Emmanuel Macron could have shown more diplomacy and called on the former colonies to reconcile. It seems that the economies of Africa and the Middle East will remain among the fastest growing for a long time, and their subsequent drift towards Beijing, Moscow, Istanbul or Doha could leave French investors with nothing.
The author is a journalist specializing in economic and international issues