For decades, energy products imported from Russia could be found everywhere in Europe: from heating homes in Slovakia to powering German industry. The voices warning that this dependence on oil, natural gas and coal from a single supplier could be risky were in the minority. The first blow to this energy carelessness came in 2014 with Russia's annexation of the Crimean peninsula, but the dangers of this situation only became clear to most Europeans after Russian forces invaded Ukraine in 2022. Since then, the European Union has struggled to wean itself off its dependence on Russian fossil fuels, as well as to overcome opposition from some of its member states to this policy, the European Newsroom - a platform for cooperation between 23 European news agencies, including BTA.
When the full-scale invasion began, the EU imposed sanctions on Russia and took steps to reduce coal and oil imports. Now the focus is on natural gas. As liquefied natural gas (LNG) becomes increasingly available worldwide, the EU plans to replace natural gas from Russia with liquefied gas - preferably from sources other than the Kremlin.
Earlier this week, the European Commission presented its "REPower EU" roadmap. It envisages a "coordinated and phased cessation of Russian energy supplies by 2027".
"With "REPower EU" we are diversifying our energy supplies and have drastically reduced Europe's previous dependence on Russian fossil fuels. It is time for Europe to completely break its energy ties with an unreliable supplier," said EC President Ursula von der Leyen.
A secondary objective of the plan is to strengthen the EU's orientation towards renewable energy sources.
"We are doing this to maintain our security. But it is also an important step towards achieving energy independence. "To produce our own clean energy at affordable prices, instead of importing expensive fossil fuels," said EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen.
But achieving these goals may be easier said than done.
From Moscow at a high price
According to the European Commission, imports of Russian natural gas have decreased from 45 percent in 2021 to 19 percent in 2024.
Imports of the blue fuel through gas pipelines have decreased dramatically, but several EU countries have increased purchases of liquefied natural gas.
Liquefied natural gas is transported by sea, unloaded in ports, regasified and then fed into the European gas network. There is a complete ban on imports of Russian coal. Oil imports from Russia account for 3 percent of total imports, down from 27 percent at the beginning of 2022.
Yet, according to estimates by the consulting company "Kpler", Russian natural gas will account for 9 percent of EU consumption from January to April 2025. Russia remains among the three largest suppliers of natural gas, along with Norway and Algeria.
Global energy research center "Ember" said that in 2024 imports increased by 18 percent year-on-year, mainly due to increased imports into the Czech Republic, Italy and France.
According to Czech analyst Jiří Tileček, the increase in Russian gas imports highlights the ongoing problems facing European energy security.
"Business is very pragmatic and importers do not care too much about whether accepting Russian natural gas is politically problematic or not. Importers are economically rational and unless there are legal obstacles, such as an embargo, they focus on importing cheaper Russian gas. This approach is supported by growing demand in Europe," Tileček said.
The future of the roadmap
Now the European Commission wants to end all imports of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027. It plans to present legislation to this end next month. Oil and nuclear fuel are also under consideration. Russia is a major supplier of uranium. In addition, several EC member states operate nuclear reactors built by Russia.
"We don't want to be under the control of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin", Jorgensen said after presenting the measures. "We know that he will use energy as a weapon if he feels it is not in his interest", he added.
The EU's energy commissioner notes that since 2022 the EU has spent more on buying fossil fuels from Russia than on providing aid to Ukraine.
The legislation will have to be voted on and approved by the European Parliament as well as EU member states.
The EU does not need all 27 EU countries to approve the import bans, which only require a qualified majority (55 percent of member states - in practice this means 15 of the 27 countries whose population represents more than 65 percent of the EU's total population).
Hungary and Slovakia, which maintain close ties with Moscow, have already criticized these plans.
"I refuse to commit economic suicide. "It is simply economic suicide to end the flow of gas, nuclear fuel, oil... everything because of some new Iron Curtain between the Western world and the Russian Federation, and some other countries," said Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, emphasizing that he supports the goal of reducing energy dependence.
For his part, Jorgensen indicated that the EC is ready to approve the legislation without unanimity. Against the backdrop of almost certain resistance from Hungary and Slovakia, a headwind is possible, which could blow from other countries as well, since a number of EU countries rely on energy sources from Russia.
From east to west and across the Atlantic Ocean
Countries such as Slovakia and Hungary remain dependent on Russian fossil fuels. For example, they import 80 percent of their oil from Russia. They are currently exempt from the application of sanctions on Russian oil.
At the end of 2024, Austria received about 80 percent of its natural gas from Russia. Supplies stopped only when the contract between Moscow and Kiev for the transit of Russian natural gas through the territory of Ukraine expired at the end of the year.
The EC will also have to deal with the increased dependence of some countries on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), three EU countries - Belgium, France and Spain - account for 85 percent of total imports of Russian liquefied natural gas into the European Union, with part of it being re-exported.
The economic giants of the European Union - Germany and France - would lose a lot from a complete rejection of Russian energy.
Before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany imported 55 percent of its natural gas from Russia. Since then, Berlin has been working to diversify its energy imports and build LNG terminals. After Russia stopped supplying gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in 2022, Germany began importing its natural gas from Norway, Belgium and the Netherlands. Germany also receives LNG from other EU countries, which in turn import some of it from Russia.
France would also be hit hard by a possible cutoff of Russian LNG, as it has five terminals for its supply.
France increased its imports of Russian LNG by 81 percent between 2023 and and 2024, which brought Russia 2.68 billion euros in revenue, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
In Spain, as of March, Russia was the third largest supplier of natural gas, with 13.2 percent of total imports in the first quarter of the year, after Algeria and the United States, which each supplied about 32 percent of the blue fuel in the same period.
The government in Madrid announced that these imports of liquefied natural gas were based on "private contracts" in which it could not interfere, but stressed that it wanted to increase imports from other sources.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said in Kiev in February that both the government and Spanish society had the "political will" to find suppliers other than Russia.
The Czech Republic’s difficulties are an example of the energy dilemma facing many countries. Although the country ended its dependence on Russian oil with the completion of the TAL (Transalpine Pipeline) pipeline in April, it still imports Russian natural gas, albeit indirectly.
In 2023, Prague declared complete independence from Russian natural gas and reduced its imports to almost zero. It now imports at least some of its Russian fuel through Slovakia, according to data from the energy transmission network.
These energy flows highlight the challenges some countries face in limiting their dependence on Russian fuel, even as they oppose the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. Slovakia and Austria import large amounts of Russian gas, while the Czech Republic and Italy receive it indirectly from their neighbors.
Bulgaria is exploring a number of options for diversifying its energy supplies, from exploration for oil and natural gas in the Black Sea to cooperation with neighboring Greece and Turkey on gas interconnectors, LNG terminals or gas transmission projects, as well as through activities to increase the share of renewable energy production.
The Republic of North Macedonia, a candidate country for accession to the European Union, imports natural gas from Russia via a gas interconnector on the border with Bulgaria. As part of the diversification plans, a contract was recently signed for the construction of an interconnector with Greece, which should strengthen its integration into the European energy market.
One of the countries that got rid of Russian gas is Croatia. In January 2021, Zagreb completed the construction of a floating LNG terminal located on the island of Krk. With this move, Croatia has diversified its gas supplies and is no longer dependent on imports from Russia.
Today, Croatia imports liquefied natural gas mainly from the United States, Nigeria, Qatar and Egypt. The terminal not only meets Croatia's needs for natural gas, but can also supply its neighbors.
By planning to expand its gas hub and modernize its gas pipelines, Croatia wants to become a regional energy center.
The launch of opportunities for more liquefied natural gas supplies from the United States could also help Brussels reduce tensions with the administration of US President Donald Trump in the trade sector.
The United States is already the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas to the European Union, with a share of 45 percent in 2024. Russia follows, with a share of 20 percent.
In April, Trump proposed that the European Union buy energy products from the United States for about $350 billion (309 billion euros) to compensate for the trade deficit between Washington and Brussels.
The European Commission announced that it seeks to rely on suppliers of energy products - from the United States to Norway, via Qatar and North African countries.
At the same time, the EC must also take into account the interests of consumers. The rise in the price of energy products remains a politically sensitive topic and the European Commission will have to deal with a new surge in natural gas prices, as in 2022, if it wants to implement its plans set out in the roadmap.