The US is proposing to create a 30-kilometer demilitarized zone along the front line, which would separate the warring armies of Russia and Ukraine. What potential does the idea have to end the war?
The US is proposing to create a demilitarized zone in Ukraine, which would be controlled by both Ukraine and Russia. It is a zone 15 km on both sides of the current front line along its entire length. The idea was proposed by the US President's special representative for Ukraine Keith Kellogg in an interview with Fox News. "This is a controlled 30-kilometer zone, which will allow monitoring of violations," said the special envoy, adding that control over the zone could be taken over by a so-called coalition of the willing - with countries such as France, Britain, Germany and other European countries. Kellogg also claimed that Ukraine seemed willing to accept such a zone.
According to him, over time, Ukraine could regain control over the lost territories, as happened with the once divided Germany. Another such example is the Baltic states, which were previously part of the Soviet Union. "The territory that you now control and for which you fought remains yours, and what will happen in five or ten years is another question. In practice, this means "freezing" everything in its current positions. "That's exactly what the Ukrainians are ready to do," Kellogg added.
Are the Ukrainians ready to freeze the conflict?
The leader of the "Free Space" movement, Taras Shamayda, called on the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry to provide an official explanation as to whether Ukraine has indeed declared its readiness to withdraw its troops 15 kilometers and which territory should be demilitarized. "Will the troops also withdraw 15 kilometers into the Sumy region, abandoning Glukhov, Belopolye, Vorozhba? Will this withdrawal also cover the front line along the Dnieper - Kherson, Nikopol? Will the Russians also withdraw 15 kilometers?", asks Shamayda on his Facebook page.
He notes that according to this logic, Ukrainian units will also have to leave Kupyansk, Volchansk, Konstantinovka, Yampol, Liman, Seversk, Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, Orekhov and Gulyaypol. "By what laws will this territory be governed? What authority will there be there? What will the mission of foreign troops in this zone look like? Will there be troops from neutral countries or even from countries engaged with Russia? What will these troops do if the Russians suddenly want to seize this 30-kilometer strip in whole or in part?", the activist also asks. There are no answers to these questions yet.
A demilitarized zone is possible, but for now only in theory
The executive director of the Foundation for Democratic Initiatives “Ilk Kucherov“ Petro Burkovsky believes that the United States' proposal makes sense and Ukraine may agree to the creation of such a zone. As a positive historical example of a demilitarized zone, he points to the experience of the Camp David agreements in 1979 between Egypt and Israel, during the conclusion of which the United States was a mediator - a demilitarized zone was created there under the control of American observers, and after the ceasefire, the troops were withdrawn. The expert assumes that if this now leads to the withdrawal of combat units and a temporary ceasefire, the effort will be worth it and may become the first tangible step towards ending the war. This would create additional difficulties for its continuation, Burkovsky also believes.
He does not rule out that concluding a 30-day ceasefire and creating a 30-kilometer demilitarized zone is theoretically possible, but the key condition is Russia's consent. "There are thousands of servicemen and hundreds of pieces of equipment on the front line. Their physical withdrawal will take more than a month. But before that, the parties must reach an agreement at the military-political level - how, which troops are withdrawn, to which areas, in what sequence, simultaneously or gradually. This is possible, but Moscow must demonstrate a desire to stop all this. According to him, Russia has not shown such a desire so far.
Will the US force Russia to accept the proposal?
Regarding Keith Kellogg's statement, the Kremlin said that they had not heard that Kiev had expressed a desire to create a demilitarized zone along the front line. This was the comment of the Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, quoted by the state news agency TASS.
Olexander Khara, director of the Kiev-based Center for Defense Strategies, says Russia will not hold a ceasefire for long without achieving its political goals, such as recognizing the territories it has occupied and Ukraine's refusal to join NATO. The Kremlin realizes that after a formal ceasefire, the resumption of fighting will lead to new condemnation from the international community, so it will do everything possible to delay the peace process.
According to the expert, the US proposal for a 30-kilometer demilitarized zone will remain only an "idea on paper": "Russia has the resources and it will not stop until we capitulate. They can combine a diplomatic strategy to keep us under pressure from the Americans and break the European coalition that supports us, while at the same time continuing to kill us," says Hara.
Ukraine already has a negative experience with such proposals
Military journalist and former spokesman for the Ukrainian General Staff Vladislav Seleznyov agrees that the proposed format for ending the war will not be effective because the Russian president does not want "half-hearted victories": "Putin will not stop until he sees his plan fully implemented. He dreams of gaining control over six regions of Ukraine - officially, with amendments to international agreements," he said, referring to the Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as Sevastopol and Crimea.
However, this is a scenario that would mean the capitulation of Ukraine, so Kiev will not agree to such a thing, the expert adds. He also recalls that Ukraine already has such experience with the withdrawal of forces and assets from the Donbas front - between 2014 and 2022, when there were over 20 ceasefire agreements, but they all turned out to be ineffective. "Even the OSCE monitoring group failed to ensure a permanent and secure perimeter along the line of contact. Why should we believe that it will work this time", Seleznyov is skeptical.
Is Europe ready to be an arbiter in the demilitarized zone?
The head of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation Serhiy Kuzan said in a comment to DW that the idea of separating troops and creating a demilitarized zone is realistic, but on condition that Russia's military potential is reduced. In addition, according to him, the agreements on the demilitarized zone should be permanent, not temporary, so as not to allow Russia to regroup and prepare a new offensive.
A sustainable ceasefire can be guaranteed by the deployment of additional forces and means on the Ukrainian side, capable of inflicting immediate and serious damage to Russian infrastructure in the event of a violation of the agreements. "Let's assume that the 30-day ceasefire ends, the Russians have accumulated resources and are ready to attack again. This would practically give the Russians carte blanche. What does the US offer as a guarantee that such a scenario will be prevented?, asks the expert. In his opinion, effective control over the demilitarized zone is crucial, but it is unlikely that the European countries of the "coalition of the willing" to agree to send their troops to this area, as there will continue to be a risk of escalation and potential casualties among the peacekeeping contingent.
Control along the entire front line is impossible
"The front line is so long that it is impossible to ensure this control everywhere. How many peacekeeping troops will be needed for this? A company? A platoon? A brigade? Will they have air defense and heavy equipment at their disposal, or only light small arms? Because what is the point of some peacekeepers as extras if they are only going to register Russian strikes? Even if all the violations of Putin's Russia were registered, this would not change anything in the course of this war," says Kuzan.
Experts agree that the US proposal needs to be very carefully finalized and could become feasible only if it becomes economically impossible for Russia to continue the war. And for this, they believe, sanctions and pressure on Moscow are necessary.