An unprecedented leak of classified information indicates that Russia may be preparing for a nuclear conflict with the West. Moscow has modernized its nuclear facilities and built new ones, an investigation by German and Danish journalists shows.
For over 10 years, Russia has been preparing for a potential nuclear conflict, journalists from the German "Spiegel” and the Danish platform Danwatch revealed. In the last decade, Moscow has expanded and modernized its nuclear facilities, the investigation shows. The journalists have reviewed over two million documents that, using satellite images, show how the infrastructure of Russia's nuclear facilities has changed. Leaked secret documents also show what Russian nuclear facilities look like from the inside.
What are nuclear facilities?
The documents obtained by journalists show that new nuclear sites have been built all over Russia. Military bases have been demolished and rebuilt from scratch - hundreds of barracks, observation towers, control centers and warehouses. Kilometers of underground tunnels have also been dug.
Among the millions of documents, Danwatch and "Spiegel" have discovered hundreds of original drawings of the Strategic Missile Forces bases near the small town of Yasny, which have been equipped with the "Avangard" hypersonic weapon since 2019 - a particularly fast and maneuverable warhead that is launched into space with an intercontinental ballistic missile. It plays a central role in President Putin's ambitions to put Russia ahead in the arms race against the West.
The documents seen by the investigative team also show the huge quantities of steel, sand, cement, bricks and insulation used to build these new bases. Information is also presented in detail about the security systems of the nuclear facilities: three rows of electric fences, sensors for seismic activity and radioactivity, doors and windows that are reinforced against explosions and alarm systems with infrared sensors that detect movement. The leaked information even shows where the weapons themselves are stored and where exactly in the buildings the control rooms are located.
With the participation of European companies?
Many of these facilities are built using materials from the German company Knauf, writes "Spiegel”. Direct supplies from Germany are impossible for an agency subordinate to the Russian Ministry of Defense. However, the contracting authorities also do not conclude contracts with Western companies, as the database shows. An auction from the fall of 2022 shows how the order for Knauf plaster for the 368th regiment in Yasny goes: a small company with seemingly modest offices in Yekaterinburg, which is the only candidate, receives the order. Knauf's Russian subsidiaries then sell it products made in Russia.
When asked by "Spiegel", Knauf replied that they cannot influence these supplies in any way, since its subsidiaries in Russia operate independently. They are active and attend numerous trade fairs, industry meetings and conferences. And many of the sanctions can be circumvented through the so-called "import substitution", explains "Spiegel". This means replacing materials that are subject to an import ban. Knauf also denies having "actively helped Moscow circumvent sanctions".
The strategy is clearly not to export its own-brand products from Germany, but to produce them in Russia. For example, the gypsum joint filler and putty Unihard was introduced to the Russian market as a replacement for Knauf's Uniflott product, after Uniflott supplies from Germany were cut off after the war began.
A huge breakthrough in the Russian security system
In December 2020, the Russian parliament passed a new law that was supposed to tighten the rules for awarding public contracts for the army, so that military secrets could not be leaked through tender documentation. Although a new database of military procurement tenders was created at the time, which should be accessible only to verified Russian companies, it has become clear that employees of Russian military construction companies continue to share the documents in a public database.
According to Philip Ingram, a former colonel and head of the 1st Military Intelligence Battalion in the British Army, the fact that these documents were leaked speaks to serious security gaps in Russia. "Such documents for extremely sensitive defense projects should never be publicly available in any way, shape or form," he says.
What is behind the nuclear threats made by the Kremlin?
The revelations by Danish and German journalists show that the Kremlin's repeated threats to use nuclear weapons may be based on serious preparations for their implementation.
The director of the American think tank "Nuclear Information Project of the Federation of American Scientists" Hans Christensen does not believe that Russia is realistically preparing for nuclear war. According to him, the new data rather shows that Moscow is carrying out the necessary modernization of the old Soviet infrastructure. Nevertheless, it is extremely important to monitor these activities carefully, the expert believes. "It is important to understand what the Russians are doing. It is important to understand what the intentions of their strategic systems are. Is there something in the infrastructure that allows us to better understand their doctrine and how they talk about their doctrine? "Is what they say actually real?" he tells Danwatch.
Is there a real danger of nuclear war?
Western experts assess the risk of a nuclear war as low. According to them, Vladimir Putin himself has no interest in such a conflict, which would inevitably destroy Russia.
According to experts, the nearly 900 operational nuclear warheads in missile bases and the intercontinental missiles that can carry them have more than just psychological significance. These are weapons that can theoretically be used. But most experts agree that any use of them could quickly escalate into a devastating global nuclear war.
Perhaps that is why Russia's strategic missile forces are perceived as a last resort, a purely destructive force that comes into play only when all hope is lost. Their official motto is as poetic as it is terrifying, Danish investigative journalists write: "After us - silence".