"Probably the worst day in the history of the Russian Air Force". That's how the Ukrainian military described the series of drone attacks on Russian airfields on Sunday, no doubt buoyed by the scale and scope of the simultaneous strikes that may have destroyed more than 40 strategic bombers, Politico wrote in its analysis.
The claim was bold - and not entirely accurate. At least 1,200, and possibly as many as 2,000 Soviet aircraft were destroyed by the German "Luftwaffe" on June 22, 1941. - the first day of Nazi Germany's invasion of the USSR.
Despite Ukraine's exaggeration, Sunday was indeed a bad day for the Russian military. It was also a powerful response to the terrifying missile and drone strikes the Kremlin launched against Ukrainian cities last week - attacks that even provoked the ire of US President Donald Trump, who backed away from his willingness to give his Russian counterpart the benefit of the doubt and accused him of being "absolutely crazy".
But will this counterstrike prove to be more than an operationally remarkable air strike - albeit a deeply embarrassing one for the Kremlin, which is clearly infuriated by Ukraine's refusal to play the loser?
Last week, Russia launched 472 drones in a nighttime attack on Ukraine, while also carrying out a deadly missile strike on a military training center. It was the largest number of nighttime strikes in the war so far, surpassing the previous nightly record of 355 drones in May. Ukrainian military commanders had expected an increase in airstrikes. Russia was bracing for a massive increase in drone and missile strikes, redoubling its years-long effort to deplete Ukraine’s dwindling stockpile of Patriot air defenses.
With little chance of a significant replenishment from Washington, the Kremlin knows full well that Ukraine’s key cities and civilian infrastructure are becoming increasingly vulnerable. And it clearly intends to make the most of it in an attempt, as always, to break Ukraine’s will to resist.
So Sunday’s bold retaliation was a welcome morale boost, delivered on the eve of fruitless peace talks in Istanbul, where the Ukrainian delegation proposed a full and conditional ceasefire, and Russia again refused until the "root causes of the conflict" were resolved.
The counterattack was the most complex Ukraine has ever undertaken. Codenamed "Cobweb," the operation involved simultaneous strikes by dozens of Russian bombers stationed at various air bases thousands of miles from the front line.
The drones struck targets across Russia, including one base closer to Japan and another in the Arctic Circle, Ukraine’s SBU security service said. To carry out the operation - which had been planned for 18 months - the drones were smuggled into Russia, hidden in wooden mobile homes, loaded onto trucks, and the roofs were opened remotely to carry out the strikes.
The SBU estimates that the attack caused about $7 billion in damage and may have reduced the number of Russian strategic cruise missiles by a third. Ukrainian commanders must have been particularly pleased to have hit the bombers that had been firing missiles at Ukraine. "How beautiful the Belaya airport looks now", SBU chief General Vasyl Malyuk is heard saying in one of the leaked videos.
"The planning, organization and all the details were perfectly prepared. It can be said with confidence that this was an absolutely unique operation," boasted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He then added salt to Russia’s wound by pointing out that the “office” of the Ukrainian operation on Russian territory was located right next to the FSB headquarters in one of their regions. Sad to say, while the strike complicates where Russia should base its strategic bombers and how to protect them, the military trend is still in the Kremlin’s favor, with or without tougher economic sanctions. And as Russia ramps up its production of drones and ballistic missiles, the air war is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukraine.
The country is currently believed to have eight Patriot missile batteries, but only half a dozen are believed to be operational at any one time due to repair and maintenance schedules. The Patriot systems are almost the only weapon Ukraine has to intercept Russian ballistic missiles, but it often takes two Patriot interceptors to destroy an incoming missile.
Meanwhile, according to Oleg Ivashchenko, the head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia plans to produce approximately 3,000 long-range missiles by 2025, including 750 Iskander ballistic missiles and more than 560 Kh-101 missiles. And while it’s a closely guarded secret exactly how many Patriot missiles Ukraine has, most military observers suspect there are fewer than 200. Even if Trump replenishes the stockpile or allows Ukraine to buy more missiles and batteries, Lockheed Martin plans to increase missile production to only about 600 per year, and even a benevolent administration wouldn’t want all of them sent to Ukraine.
Basically, the math is simply not in Ukraine’s favor. Therefore, the country's commanders are now focusing on the air bases of bombers that launch ballistic missiles and missile depots. And we may see a repeat of the attack from Sunday, but that will be a very difficult task indeed.