A lot has been said and written about the "Russian topic" in Bulgaria. Especially in recent years, when we have been almost constantly subjected to hybrid attacks, and the Kremlin has even officially declared our country an enemy.
It is often claimed that Moscow's goal is to destabilize Bulgaria and ultimately remove it from "Europe", returning it to its geopolitical orbit. And if this is undoubtedly true about destabilization (and applies far from only to Bulgaria), then is the ultimate goal really to return to the "embrace of the Russian bear"? And is this achievable?
Despite the active actions of pro-Russian forces in the institutions, media and social networks, the Russian cause in our country seems to be losing battle after battle.
Bulgaria has become a full member of the Schengen area, is on its way to entering the Eurozone, and even the long-awaited F16 Block 70 aircraft have begun landing on Bulgarian territory.
In fact, what have the Bulgarian Russophiles achieved recently, with all the logistical and probably financial support from Moscow?
Despite all the hysteria "for peace and neutrality", it turns out that Bulgaria is performing quite decently in terms of the aid provided to Ukraine (as a share of GDP) - by mid-2023, we surpassed countries such as the USA, Canada, Spain, Italy and France, and by the beginning of the same year we were even in the Top 5.
The delay in Schengen and The Eurozone is not "the merit" of the "kopecks" - in one case, other countries were stopping us, and in the other - until recently we did not meet the criteria.
The election of Rumen Radev ("Crimea is Russian, who cares?") as president of Bulgaria does not bring much practical benefit to Russia - although Radev actively lobbies for the lifting of European sanctions against Moscow, in the end new and new packages are added (with what effect, is a separate question).
Even sabotaging the COVID vaccination did not turn out to be entirely on the Russian agenda, since the majority of Bulgarians were reluctant to receive all vaccines, including the Russian one. And the anti-vaccination sentiments went hand in hand with resistance to the restrictive measures - which in Russia were at times harsher than ours.
In general, the Russophile dogs bark, the European caravan moves on...
Which leads to one of two possible conclusions:
either bringing Bulgaria into the "Russian world" is a fart cause, regardless of what both Russophobes and Russophiles say
or, if this is still possible, it cannot be achieved in the current way and by the current Bulgarian "kopecks".
Bulgarian belonging to the "West" is the result of three reasons.
The first is the Malta Agreements of late 1989, when the Soviet Union agreed not to prevent the Eastern Bloc countries from integrating into Western interstate associations if they wished. (However, this only applied to the CMEA and Warsaw Pact countries, plus possibly the Baltic republics if they subsequently gained independence. The remaining Soviet republics were not included in the equation - at least because by December 1989 the USSR had not yet collapsed.)
The second reason is the efforts of the Bulgarian governments of the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
The "Kostov" cabinet managed to convince our Western partners that Samuel Huntington was wrong about Bulgaria and that it unconditionally belongs to European civilization, and not to some Russian-dominated "Orthodox" such.
The "Saxe-Coburg-Gotha" cabinet managed to get our membership in NATO and the EU to happen in 2004 and 2007, respectively, instead of who knows when in the future.
The third reason is the will of Bulgarian society, which over the past 20 years has reaffirmed this "civilizational choice" of ours (according to President Petar Stoyanov) in all elections. And the votes for leaving NATO and the EU have always turned out to be marginal.
And this is no coincidence. A possible exit of Bulgaria from the EU is unthinkable simply because too many Bulgarians have a conscious financial interest (European funds, but not only) in our country being part of the European Union. And if any politician resorts to real action, he will face these violated interests.
By the way, one of the biggest nonsense uttered in recent years was to attribute pro-Russian, respectively anti-European sentiments to agricultural producers - some of whom became millionaires and drive "Porsche" and "Maybach" literally thanks to the EU.
As for leaving NATO, this would mean that our military spending would increase many times over so that the country's territory could be adequately protected. That is, that other spending would have to be cut back significantly.
It also means a much more serious commitment of the individual citizen to defense and security - similar to countries like Israel and Switzerland. Do you see enthusiasm for all this among the Bulgarian population?
We also come to the external factor - does Russia want to pull us into its orbit? I have already mentioned that it is more profitable for the Kremlin for Bulgaria to be its "Trojan horse" in the Euro-Atlantic world. But even if Russia wants to tear us away from the West, can it do it? And more precisely, where do we stand in Moscow's perspective?
It is clear to everyone that Bulgaria is not Belarus, which is the European country most closely linked to Russia. For a number of reasons, although some disagreements also appear.
Bulgaria is not Ukraine, which has always been divided (by regions) between Europe and Russia.
Bulgaria is not Moldova, where the current "front line" between European civilization and "Russian world" is currently located (after the EU and the US largely abandoned Ukraine).
Bulgaria is not Georgia, where economic ties with Russia give the Kremlin serious leverage for influence (even if the Georgians themselves are categorically anti-Russian and pro-European).
Bulgaria is not Serbia, where after the Yugoslav wars, anti-Western sentiments are so fierce that Russian influence penetrates practically without effort.
Bulgaria is not even Romania, which for purely geographical reasons finds itself in the path of the Russian geopolitical doctrine. According to the "geographic" theory, Russia has an interest in the border between "Europe" and "Russian world" being mountainous, not flat, as it is now. That is, Moscow's influence extending to the Carpathians and the Tatras...
Bulgaria turns out to be too far behind in the Kremlin's priorities.
Therefore, it is no coincidence that the Bulgarian pro-Russian parties and politicians (in the past "Ataka", now "Vazrazhdane") are not given attention by leading figures of the Kremlin regime, but contact second- and third-rate figures - Bulgaria is simply not that important to Russia.
And the relative successes of the Kremlin propaganda in our country are due mostly to Russophile attitudes among a part of the population. Attitudes that are absent among other nations.
Thus, the "Russian map" turns out to be exclusively for local, Bulgarian consumption. The opposition "for and against Russia" pours grist to the mills of "kopecks" and "Euro-Atlantics", but nothing substantial follows from this for Bulgaria.
The former simply create vain hopes among the Russophile audience, while the latter brandish Putin's face as a scarecrow to cover up their political, and often purely personal, weakness.
And the Russian threat could be exploited in the interests of Bulgaria before our Western partners. To emphasize the importance of our country as part of NATO's Eastern Flank.
And to earn dividends from this - for example, more favorable conditions for rearmament. If only we had politicians with the scale to make it happen.