After the SCO forum in Tianjin, China and the celebrations of the 80th anniversary of World War II in Beijing with a grand military parade, the echo from Alaska with the landmark meeting of Trump with Putin has undoubtedly faded. In China, the West was absent with the exception of Fico from Slovakia, Vucic from Serbia, without his country being an EU member, and the Foreign Minister of Hungary Szijjarto.
For CNN, the photo with Xi Jinping, Putin and Kim Jong Un standing next to each other is defining for this key event of the year, and not the demonstration of unprecedented unity against the West with the impressive military parade with the most modern weapons. Previously, in Tianjin, Xi Jinping, Modi and Putin, standing next to each other again, were defined as “the unification of the Russian bear with the dragon and the Indian elephant”, which have “set the contours of a new order in the world”.
Signals such as Putin holding hands with Modi, riding in the same car for 40 minutes, then in the same way the Russian president riding with Kim Jong-un in his own Aurus with a Chinese license plate, the accommodation of the Russian delegation in a hotel like the “Ritz-Carlton” from the “golden age of European culture in China”, addresses like “my dear friend”, etc. are all signs for conclusions in the style of “The rest of the world against the West in Beijing”.
Somehow, on the periphery of the analyses of what happened in China, events such as the establishment of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Pakistan, after 34 years, and Malaysia's pride that Xi Jinping personally mentioned the country in his speech congratulating on the national holiday, that Vučić loudly mentioned that he was “in the front row of the parade”, supplemented by “others from the region can only dream of seeing Xi Jinping on a postcard” /I'm telling you, daughter, remember, daughter-in-law!/, that India has applied the “veto” on Azerbaijan's membership in the SCO, which Pakistan did for Armenia, and Putin talks to Pashinyan from Yerevan with “I'm glad to see you”, but passes Aliyev from Baku and all sorts of other supposedly insignificant, but indicative signals.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have recently been so pro-American and have been concluding agreements that, to put it mildly, are not to the taste of Moscow and Beijing due to the intervention of “foreign forces” in the Transcaucasus, that this is assessed as a new geopolitical orientation. The spirit of the SCO is different, but that does not prevent both sides from being in Tianjin, or even in Beijing.
Without a doubt, Erdogan's visit to Tianjin at the SCO forum deserves special attention. Not because Turkish media described this visit as "Putin did not have such a welcoming ceremony from China", which is quite in the tradition of the Turks to present the country and its leaders at an unprecedentedly high level outside the country. Even if it is not true. Not because Erdogan arrived in China with three planes - for him and Emine Erdogan, a Boeing 747, a gift from the Emir of Qatar, an Airbus A 330 for the delegation with Foreign Minister Fidan, the head of MIT Kalan and many ministers and party figures from the ruling AKP and the coalition PND, and another cargo plane for cars.
But because his meetings with Putin and Xi Jinping are important for orientation in geopolitics and bilateral relations. During the meeting with Erdogan, Xi Jinping stressed that “with Turkey we are two developing major countries and members of the Global South”. It was necessary to work for “a more just and equitable system of global governance”. In 2026, the 55th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries will be celebrated and “mutual trust, cooperation and synergy between the “One Belt, One Road” initiative and the “Middle Corridor” initiative should be strengthened.
This is actually the development of the southern corridor of China-Europe freight trains. This is where the dog is buried in the “Yerevan-Baku problem”. And behind Baku with Aliyev stands Erdogan. Quite angry lately because of Washington's interference in the region. He saw himself after the Pashinyan/Aliev meeting at the White House and the agreement on the Zangezur corridor with the participation of a private American company. This with private companies has become a trademark of Washington recently. There is no way to say that the US is involved.
For his part, Erdogan has attached "great importance to relations with China" and determined that this should be done "through mutual visits". He has confirmed support for the "One China" policy, and at this stage this is essential for Beijing.
During the meeting with Putin, Erdogan said "my invitation is eternal" and again expressed his desire for the Russian president to visit Ankara "as soon as possible". He pointed out that "we have sincere relations based on trust and our relations are developing without being affected by the current challenges". This is despite the fact that Russian media write that "Erdogan is not joking, he is crossing the line". Such analyses are made not only because of "Russia's removal from the Transcaucasus, in particular from Baku", but also in connection with the events in Syria.
There, Moscow believes that "Erdogan has stabbed himself in the back" and Turkey is the basis for the change of power in Syria and the installation of the Islamist Sharaa in Damascus. But now Ankara says that "the initial optimism for Syria after Assad has faded." The ruler in Damascus, Sharaa, failed to "establish a strong central government" and the Syrian Kurds dictated the terms with the support of Israel and the US. There is talk of a "four-part Syria," Turkish media write. Foreign Minister Fidan even says that "one era in Syria has ended, but another, more difficult one has begun."
Clearly, the challenges for Turkey are yet to come, and they have Tel Aviv and Washington, who support the Syrian Kurds and the Druze. They, in turn, insist on autonomy. And from the prison in Imrali Ocelan, the classic leader of the PKK, declares "Syria and Rojava are my red line and for me they are separate issues." A kind of autonomy for Rojava, the territory of the Syrian Kurds, is also supported by Öcalan. Well, it is necessary to talk to Putin. The “Israel factor” is not a spoon for everyone. Especially when he says that “our policy is to form alliances with the Kurds and Druze in the region”. Well, there are Kurds in four countries, most of them in Turkey.
But Erdogan is not on the parade in Beijing. Maybe because he is also following Modi's policy - with one foot in Moscow, the other in Beijing and with an eye on Washington. But Turkey is not India and Erdogan does not ride in the same car with Putin. He does not participate in grandiose energy projects in Siberia, he no longer buys Russian weapons and Russian tourists are already avoiding Turkey because of the financial inconveniences imposed under Western pressure. He is also creating problems for Akkoy, the nuclear power plant with Russian loans. Looking to the West has a price. Something that Ahmet Davutoglu, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Turkey, shares in his article in the Turkish media.
According to him, “Turkey remains outside the negotiating table on issues that are particularly important for its national interests”. But it is “held responsible for decisions taken without its participation”. This was a Cold War mentality, which was a topic of reflection in his book “Strategic Depth” back in 2001. "Western leaders must abandon the illusion that Turkey is a youthful nation-state that can boast." It is "not a new player, but a regional power that has shaped the European and world order for many years," Davutoglu says.
He believes that "Turkey can influence the global balance" because "it has an identity based on traditions in diplomacy and statehood built over centuries." This is the kind of talk a politician outside of government says, when a ruling leader has no say in his contacts with allies, competitors or adversaries, but positions must be presented. Erdogan cannot say that "Trump is determined to run the world like a private company," who "disregards centuries-old diplomatic norms." He "humiliates European countries and excludes key partners like Turkey", even "undermining the strategic integrity of NATO".
With the photo in the White House, "where European leaders sat like schoolchildren in front of Trump's desk, he showed Russia and China that they should turn to him on issues that concern Europe". Davutoglu is even harsher, saying "he is establishing a neocolonial order based on patronage". To avoid sidelining Turkey, which is not officially stated, Davutoglu proposes a three-step repositioning through an alternative cooperation group within NATO.
As a first step, Turkey should form a bloc with countries with similar interests in NATO that were not invited to the White House meeting with European leaders - Poland, Norway, Sweden, the Baltics. Then revive initiatives in the Black Sea with a consultative framework with countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia, Moldova and strengthen direct communication with Ukraine and Russia. In this way, Turkey would regain its strategic centrality and demonstrate to the US and the EU that it is not a passive Middle Eastern power, but a major Afro-Asian power.
Is this a look to the East? Quick and decisive action was needed to avoid Turkey's marginalization and internal imbalance in NATO. Ankara is somewhat dissatisfied with the order that is currently in place. Again, “The world is more than 5”, as Erdogan often says. As they say, it is coming.