The world of consumer electronics is on the verge of serious turbulence. Analysts from TrendForce have sharply overturned their optimistic forecasts for 2026, and according to them, the expected minimal growth in the production of smartphones (+0.1%) and laptops (+1.7%) now looks like a mirage. The reason? A severe, rapidly gaining momentum crisis in the memory market, which will inevitably push prices up and repel even the most loyal buyers. We are facing a collapse, orchestrated by the most inconspicuous but vital components - DRAM and NAND chips.
This year we have already seen the harbinger of the storm
Manufacturing costs for smartphones have soared due to the rise in the price of RAM. Contract prices for DRAM are expected to increase by more than 75% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. Given that memory typically accounts for 10% to 15% of the cost of components in a smartphone, by the end of the year the price of finished devices will rise by an alarming 8% to 10%.
2026 promises only to deepen the problem. According to TrendForce, contract prices for DRAM and NAND will continue to soar, which will increase the production costs of smartphones by another 5% to 7%, and perhaps more. This price pressure is forcing manufacturers to take drastic measures. They are expected to reduce the share of cheap, low-profit models and unceremoniously raise the prices of the remaining smartphones.
In this unequal struggle, smaller players are doomed. They will be left with the remnants of memory due to the shortage, which will inevitably lead to a decline in sales and inevitable market consolidation. As is usually the case in times of crisis, the big players will use the situation to increase their share while the smaller ones sink.
The laptop market
It is also under pressure from two directions, which is even more dangerous than the one for smartphones. First, the memory shortage is pushing up prices. Second, macroeconomic instability is already reducing demand, and rising prices will stifle it completely. Before the crisis, memory accounted for 10% to 18% of the cost of laptop components, but by 2026 this share could easily exceed 20%. If suppliers pass on the entire increase to consumers, laptop prices could jump by an average of 5% to 15%.
Consumer behavior is already changing, showing a clear rejection of new purchases:
Low-end segment: Demand is collapsing as the life of existing laptops is extended or consumers switch to used machines.
Mid-end segment: People are also extending the life of their laptops, freezing demand for new models.
High-end segment: Even the most solvent buyers will turn to cheaper configurations, squeezing their budgets.
Manufacturers will be further squeezed by retailers, who will desperately struggle to maintain some attractiveness of their prices.
In this environment of collapse, even the computer monitor market will not escape consequences, albeit indirectly. Their sales are expected to decline by 0.4%, as they are typically purchased as add-ons to new computers. Fortunately, at least their prices won't jump, as they don't use high-capacity memory - a small consolation in the overall picture of consumer rejection and high prices.