Statistics about Tesla's autonomous ambitions in Austin, Texas, cast a serious shadow over Elon Musk's promises of a safe driverless future. Data requested by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) reveals a disturbing picture: the experimental fleet of robo-taxis is involved in accidents nine times more often than the average American driver.
Between July and November of last year (2025), modified Tesla Model Ys traveled about 500,000 miles, with nine crashes recorded during that period. That's an average of one accident every 54,000 miles. By comparison, official NHTSA data shows that drivers in the US are involved in a police-reported accident once every 500,000 miles. Even if we take into account more conservative estimates of minor collisions that fall outside the statistics (about one in 200,000 miles), Tesla's technology still lags significantly behind.
The Austin incident history shows a variety of errors that raise questions about software maturity. Three crashes were recorded in July, including a low-speed stationary obstacle and a collision with another SUV. September was the most critical with four incidents - from crashes in parking lots to a collision with a cyclist and even an animal accident at speeds over 27 mph. October and November added two more cases to the list, including a wrong-way right turn.
Of particular concern is the fact that until recently these cars were driven with a “observer“ in the front seat, whose role was to prevent precisely such situations. Tesla recently announced the elimination of these controllers in Texas, but revelations by bloggers show that the company now insures its prototypes with a companion car that follows them closely.
At the other extreme is Waymo. The Alphabet company, which operates a much larger fleet of cars and has already accumulated millions of driverless kilometers, is showing results that are better than those of humans. Waymo has demonstrated complete transparency with regulators, while Tesla continues to redact details in its reports, leaving the public and institutions in the dark about the exact reasons for the failures of its system.