Statements from the Kremlin show that Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to believe that he can win a war of attrition against Ukraine and the West, and so far no one has convinced him to change his strategy, News.bg reports.
This is stated in the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Putin believes that US President Donald Trump is unlikely to make significant efforts to strengthen Ukrainian defense. The US-Russia meeting in Alaska on August 15, 2025 convinced the Russian leader that Washington has no interest in actively intervening in the war. Sources note that Putin will continue to participate in all bilateral talks with the United States, while simultaneously attacking Ukraine’s energy and other critical infrastructure.
ISW has repeatedly documented instances in which Putin has given the Russian military tasks that exceed its actual capabilities. It remains unclear whether the Russian president is receiving inaccurate information about the country’s military potential or is deliberately ignoring limitations to support narratives about Russia’s ability to wage a prolonged war, regardless of the cost.
ISW’s analysis emphasizes that Russia’s military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable. Control over the outcome of the war remains in the hands of Ukraine, the United States, and European countries.
On the night of September 19-20, Russian forces carried out one of the largest drone and missile strikes against Ukraine in recent weeks. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the launch of 8 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai; 32 Kh-101 cruise missiles from Saratov Oblast; and 579 Shahed and Primamka drones from the directions of Kursk, Bryansk, Orel, Millerovo, Shatalovo, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk.
The Ukrainian Air Force managed to shoot down 2 Iskander-M/KN-32 ballistic missiles and 29 Kh-101 cruise missiles, as well as 552 drones. However, some of the missiles and 23 drones reached ten targets, with fragments falling in various places. Tactical aircraft, including F-16s, were used to intercept the cruise missiles.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said strikes were carried out in the Dnipropetrovsk region, as well as in Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhia, Poltava, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy and Kharkiv. In Dnipropetrovsk, a cluster munition missile hit a residential building, killing one person and wounding 13. In Khmelnytskyi region, one person was killed and three were injured, and other areas suffered damage to civilian infrastructure.
Russian actions have also included violations of NATO safety zones. On September 19, Polish border guards reported two Russian fighter jets flying at low altitude over a Polish oil platform in the Baltic Sea, a direct violation of safety. A spokesman for the Polish border service confirmed that the platform was located in Poland’s exclusive economic zone.
ISW believes that Russia is deliberately testing NATO’s capabilities to gather data on the alliance’s response and political will that could be used in future conflicts.
On September 19, Zelensky announced the start of a managed arms export program. Surplus naval drones and anti-tank weapons will be exported to finance the production of new drones for Ukrainian forces, with front-line supplies remaining a priority.
Meanwhile, ISW reports that Russian commanders continue to order executions of Ukrainian civilians and other acts of treachery. On September 17, servicemen from the 122nd Motor Rifle Regiment were ordered to execute any man under the age of 45 they encountered in Kupyansk. There is video evidence of Russian soldiers wearing civilian clothes in Liman on September 16, as well as evidence of systematic war crimes in occupied areas.