The Republic of Moldova, which recently celebrated 34 years of independence, will hold high-stakes parliamentary elections on Sunday, September 28. The result will have a direct impact on the country's bid for European Union membership, and pro-European and pro-Russian forces are in a tight race, BTA reports.
The following is a report on the situation in Moldova - a country with a population of just over 2.4 million people, located between Romania and Ukraine.
WHO ARE THE MAIN CANDIDATES?
Since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, Moldova has alternated between pro-Western and pro-Russian policies. The pro-Western camp has ruled firmly since President Maia Sandu took office in 2020, and her Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) won a majority in parliament the following year.
The Action and Solidarity Party supports closer integration with the West, including EU membership by 2030. It strongly opposed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and accuses Russia of trying to influence the country's political processes through hybrid attacks, disinformation, financing of political parties and vote buying.
The opposition Patriotic Bloc, made up of four pro-Russian parties, advocates restoring economic relations with countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States and is open to cooperation with BRICS, the Eurasian Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and China.
WHAT DO THE POLLS SHOW?
A total of 23 political entities are registered in the race - 15 parties, four coalitions and four independent candidates.
The latest polls show that the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) could lose its parliamentary majority in the 101-seat parliament and be forced to seek a coalition with one of the smaller parties that pass the threshold for representation in the legislature, which is 5 percent for parties and 7 percent for coalitions.
The opposition Patriotic Bloc has been placed in second place in several polls.
According to the polls, the opposition bloc "Alternative", which at a declarative level declares itself in support of European integration, "Our Party", which advocates "national reconciliation" by ending the "heated discussions on geopolitics", on Moldovan neutrality and the constitutional status of the Russian language, and the new "League of Cities and Municipalities" party, which is pro-European.
RUSSIA'S ROLE
President Maia Sandu described the elections as the "most important" in Moldova's history and accused Moscow of intensifying hybrid warfare by fueling fake news, illegally financing parties and buying voters.
In recent weeks, police have carried out dozens of actions related to illegal financing. On Monday (September 22), 74 people were detained "in connection with a criminal case of preparing mass protests and destabilization, coordinated by the Russian Federation," Moldovan police announced. According to investigators, some of those detained received weapons training in Serbia.
Russia denies interfering in Moldova's internal affairs and has accused Moldovan authorities of fomenting anti-Russian hysteria to win the elections. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova recently said that "Sandu's regime is exerting psychological pressure on the population" and "the West controls Moldova with an iron fist." Russian authorities have criticized the opening of only two polling stations for the Moldovan elections on Russian territory.
The pro-Russian opposition in Moldova has called the police operations an attempt at intimidation. The leader of the Socialist Party, Igor Dodon, who was president from 2016 to 2020 and is the leading figure in the Patriotic Bloc, said that Sandu and her supporters want to drag the country into war with Russia.
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, meanwhile, said that the EU wants to occupy Moldova and deploy NATO forces in Ukraine's Odessa region.
The Central Election Commission has barred several parties from participating in the elections on the grounds that they are linked to Moscow and to Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, who has sought refuge in Russia. Shor was sentenced in absentia in 2023 to 15 years in prison in a case dubbed the "theft of the century" in connection with the disappearance of $1 billion from Moldovan banks in 2014.
The "Shor" party was declared unconstitutional in 2023, and the MPs it elected remained independent.
In July of this year, at a congress in Moscow of Ilan Shor's new political formation, the "Pobeda" bloc, he declared that the "only salvation" for Moldova was unification with the Russian Federation. The "Pobeda" bloc was not allowed to participate in the parliamentary elections.
In addition, Russia has nearly 1,500 soldiers in Transnistria, a Moldovan region ruled by pro-Russian separatists who broke away from the control of the government in Chisinau after a short war in 1992. Transnistria is also home to many ethnic Bulgarians.
On Sunday, 12 polling stations will be opened in Transnistria.
THE ISSUE OF LANGUAGE
As of March 2023, the official language of Moldova is Romanian, after an initiative to rename the language from Moldovan to Romanian was approved in parliament. The change was voted on by deputies from the Party of Action and Solidarity, while the opposition Bloc of Communists and Socialists opposed it on the grounds that the decision contradicts the constitution, where the language is called Moldovan.
The problem of naming the language remains one of the causes of tension in society. According to the latest census of 2024, 49.2 percent declared that they speak Moldovan, and 31.3 percent - Romanian.
At the same time, Russian is spoken by 11.1 percent of the population, Gagauz - by 3.8 percent, Ukrainian - by 2.9 percent, Bulgarian - by 1.2 percent, Roma - by 0.3 percent, and 0.2 percent indicated other languages.
In total, 83.4 percent of Moldovan citizens have only Moldovan citizenship, 15.6 percent have Moldovan and other citizenship, and 0.9 percent are citizens of other countries.
A little over 77 percent (77.2 %) declare themselves Moldovans, 7.9 percent - Romanians, 4.9 percent - Ukrainians, 4.2 percent - Gagauz, 3.2 percent - for Russians, 1.6 percent - for Bulgarians, and the rest - for Roma and other ethnic groups, according to official census data.
ECONOMY
During the fighting in Ukraine, the volume of Russian natural gas imports to Moldova was sharply reduced, which led to high inflation and forced the government to look for alternative energy sources. Politicians participating in the elections speculate a lot on the price of natural gas and the fears of the population in this regard.
The economy of the Republic of Moldova is highly dependent on the service sector and agriculture. Its main exports are agricultural products, textiles and machinery, and its main trading partners are Romania, Ukraine and Italy.
The Ministry of Economic Development forecasts economic growth of 1.3 percent this year, but according to the International Monetary Fund, real GDP growth will be 0.6 percent.
Continued instability in the region, weaker demand from key trading partners, a significant imbalance between exports and imports, vulnerability to energy prices and the potential impact of changes in gas transit contracts are the key factors affecting the development of the Moldovan economy.
According to data from the National Bank of Moldova in July, annual inflation was 7.93 percent. According to the International Monetary Fund, inflation in 2025 will be 8 percent, although the Ministry of Economic Development forecasts inflation of 6.1 percent.