Military scenario! What will happen if Russia attacks NATO after Ukraine

''On March 27, 2028, the Estonian city of Narva wakes up to explosions. At sunrise, the Russian tricolor flutters above the city hall. These images flood social networks under the hashtag #DayofReturn. NATO's reaction is hesitant. The hastily convened summit in Brussels failed to invoke Article 5. The American president repeats the Kremlin's arguments and warns that he will not risk "World War III over a limited act of aggression". His message to Europe is direct: "If you want to do something military, that's your business. But we will not support it." This scenario of events is described in the material of The New York Times (NYT), based on the book ''If Russia Wins'' by the professor of international politics at the Bundeswehr University Carlo Massala.

The publication notes that this nightmare does not surprise NATO strategists. For more than a decade, they have feared that Russia could strike Narva under the pretext of protecting the Russian-speaking population. This scenario has also been played out in military exercises and think tanks, always with the same unanswered question: will NATO fight for Narva?

In 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Narva a historical part of Russia. It is the third largest city in Estonia and nearly 96% of the population (about 56 thousand people) speak Russian. About a third have Russian passports. The fears in the country are that the war in Ukraine could be repeated in Eastern Estonia and this would be the beginning of World War III if NATO responds. If there is no response, this would be the end of the military alliance.

The publication considers how realistic such a scenario is?

The journalists suggest that the events of the past week do not bode well. We recall that only days ago, US President Donald Trump stunned European capitals by stating that Kiev could regain all its territories with the help of the EU. He also announced that he would continue to supply NATO with weapons with which it could “do whatever it wanted“.

For historian Niall Ferguson, this is a clear sign that the US is withdrawing from the war in Ukraine. "I interpret it as, 'Goodbye, you bastards, I tried everything, but Putin let me down,'" he says.

Masala agrees. He believes Trump has distanced himself from Ukraine by "passing the buck" and that if Kiev fails in the war or runs out of money, the responsibility will fall on European leaders, not him. Can Europe shoulder that burden, though?

"The problem is that while Vilnius and Warsaw know they're next, it's much harder to convince the Western population of NATO's vulnerability because the Americans have already surrendered," Ferguson says.

Masala quotes a quote from Lenin to describe Putin's approach: "Explore the territory with bayonets. If you find a mess, move on; if you come across steel, back off.“

So far, he adds, Putin "has only encountered mush. Europeans are too weak to stand up to this Russian imperialism.“

For years, Moscow has been probing NATO defenses with sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation. Since coming to power in 2000, Putin has kept eight British prime ministers and five American presidents on alert, while his agents have assassinated dissidents in London and Berlin, interfered in elections and carried out cyberattacks with near impunity.

The sabotage is becoming increasingly brazen, the newspaper notes. Kremlin agents have been found to have carried out a series of arson attacks on British and German warehouses storing humanitarian aid destined for Ukraine. Railway lines carrying military cargo have mysteriously caught fire. Undersea cables connecting northern European countries have been cut. And in January, explosions rocked a gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea, which officials called a “blatant act of sabotage“.

“Putin has perfected the art of hybrid warfare: The “little green men” who seized Crimea in 2014, wearing masks and without insignia, used Soviet methods in Hungary in 1956 and in Prague in 1968, when the opposition prepared the ground for the invasion of tanks,“ the publication writes.

The West's problem is not so much a lack of awareness as a lack of will. “Democracy must be protected, but I don't think our citizens are willing to pay such a price. "The further west you go from Ukraine and Russia, the less resilient people become," Masala notes.

The publication adds that he is not alone in his concerns.

“It is reckless and foolish for Europe to be in this position with Russia“, says General Richard Barrons, former commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command. He points out that since the invasion of Crimea in 2014, Europe and the United States “have not done enough to deter Russia from attacking again“ Ukraine.

He also admits a future Russian attack on Estonia:

“Russia’s aim is to tear Article 5 to pieces. Narva is a small town that no one has heard of, an unnecessary pimple. Maybe some allies will say: “We will not die for it.“ At that point, Article 5 will evaporate.“

What can be done to prevent that? Germany has met NATO’s goal of spending at least 2% of GDP on defense, backed by a special fund of 100 billion euros. It plans to increase that spending to 3.5% and spend about 649 billion euros on its military needs by 2029.

However, a recent intervention suggests that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz may have read Masala’s book: “Europe is now being tested more than ever in our lifetimes,” he says.

“We must systematically and massively raise the price of Russian aggression,” he adds, offering Kiev an interest-free loan of 140 billion euros, to be repaid only after Russia compensates Ukraine for the damage caused during the war. Until then, Russian assets in Europe worth around €210 billion will remain frozen.

How Russia provoked NATO

The world was recently shocked by the news that Russia attacked Poland with 19 drones, of which the military managed to shoot down only 4.

Then Russian military aircraft violated Estonian airspace. In response, the country said it was ready to deploy British nuclear weapons after the incident with Russia.