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ISW: Russian offensive in Ukraine slowed further last month

At the end of September, Moscow exercised full or partial control over 19 percent of Ukrainian territory.

Oct 1, 2025 16:24 381

ISW: Russian offensive in Ukraine slowed further last month  - 1

The Russian army's offensive in Ukraine slowed further last month, especially in the eastern Donetsk region, according to an analysis by Agence France-Presse based on data from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), BTA reports.

In one month, Russia has taken 447 sq km from Ukrainian forces, deepening the slowdown that began in August (594 sq km) after a peak in July (634 sq km).

At the end of September, Moscow exercised full or partial control over 19 percent of Ukrainian territory. About 7 percent - Crimea and parts of Donbas - were already under Russian control before the invasion began in February 2022.

The July breakthrough was the largest since November 2024 (725 sq km), with the exception of the first months of the war in spring 2022, when the front line was highly mobile.

The area of territory captured includes areas that are fully or partially controlled by Russia, as well as areas that it claims to have control.

From October 2024 to September 2025, Russian forces captured over 6,000 sq km – almost three times more than in the previous 12 months (about 2,300 sq km between October 2023 and September 2024).

Last month, Russia initially made rapid progress, gaining 416 sq km between September 1 and 19, before slowing towards the end of the month, when it captured only about 30 sq km from September 20 to 30, AFP reported.

The slowdown is most pronounced in the Donetsk region - a major battleground between Russian and Ukrainian forces over the past two years. In September, Russia captured 181 sq km there - one of its weakest gains in the past year. From May to August, the Russians captured an average of about 400 sq km per month. In the region, 80 percent of which is now under Russian control (up from 64 percent a year ago), the front lines have been almost frozen since mid-September.

However, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, General Oleksandr Syrsky, acknowledged on Friday that the situation on the front “is difficult” and that the Russian army continues to advance in key areas of Donetsk region, including around the cities of Pokrovsk and Dobropilya.

Russia has also continued its offensive in Kharkiv region (100 sq km) in the northeast of the country, as well as in Dnipropetrovsk region (80 sq km), which remains almost entirely under Kiev’s control.

The Russian army first entered Dnipropetrovsk region on June 8, according to ISW. Ukraine only officially acknowledged the presence of Russian troops there in late August. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is not among the five Ukrainian regions that Moscow has announced its annexation of, AFP reports.