The fuel crisis in Russia is growing. Despite the fact that the state subsidizes them and maintains artificially low prices, the deficit is noticeable in a number of places - prices are rising, and gas stations are closing. The crisis in Russia was caused by attacks by Ukrainian drones. Oil refineries are closing one after another for repairs - production volumes have significantly decreased. As a result, stock prices for fuels have jumped sharply and are chasing new records. Prices at gas stations have also risen, but not yet so drastically, since the authorities are currently holding them artificially. However, just like in Soviet times, price regulation leads to a shortage.
What damage have Ukrainian drones caused to Russian refineries?
Data from publicly available sources that DW has examined indicate that Ukraine has attacked almost half of Russian oil refineries with drones, including those in Volgograd, Ryazan, Samara, Saratov, Syzran, Novoshakhtinsk and others.
According to data from the research company “Siala“, the volume of available gasoline production capacity in August fell by 6% compared to July, and in September - already by 18%. Diesel production capacity decreased by 7% in August and by 20% in September. Two-thirds of this decrease is due to drone attacks, says the agency's expert Vladimir Nikitin.
A participant in the fuel market gave a roughly similar estimate (production fell by 20%) to “Kommersant“. According to him, there was a gasoline shortage of 400,000 tons in September, while standard monthly supplies amount to about 2 million tons.
Why did the fuel crisis break out right now?
As the DW reported earlier, the crisis in Russia began to take shape in mid-summer, before oil refineries began to fail en masse. In this case, several factors are at work at the same time: seasonal growth in demand, scheduled repairs at some plants and unscheduled repairs at others, combined with increased exports of Russian oil.
When stock prices began to set records due to fuel shortages, the authorities imposed a temporary ban on exports. This measure cooled the market. However, experts warn that if another destabilizing factor is added to the already existing ones - for example, massive drone attacks - the effect of the embargo will quickly disappear. This is exactly what is happening now.
A major role in this, apparently, has been played by the change in tactics of the Ukrainian armed forces. They repeatedly attack the same oil refineries, thereby preventing them from restoring their work. For example, the plant in Ryazan (the largest in Russia) has been hit at least six times, and those in Volgograd and Syzran - four times each. When previously - for example, in 2024 - Ukraine struck Russian oil refineries only once, the damage was repaired quickly - in a few days to a few weeks, Sergei Vakulenko, an expert from the Carnegie Berlin Center, told DW.
How is the fuel crisis in Russia manifested?
Russian producers are required to sell at least 15% of gasoline on the exchange. Since the beginning of the year, quotes have jumped by more than 40%, and prices remain close to their historical highs. At gas stations, the price increase is more moderate because the authorities hold it back artificially.
The main instrument for regulating the fuel market in Russia is the so-called buffer payments: oil companies sell gasoline in the country at regulated prices, and the state partially compensates for their losses. In addition, the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) is monitoring the price hikes. On September 30, it announced an inspection of gas stations in a number of regions.
As a result, the growth in retail gasoline prices since the beginning of the year, according to Rosstat, reached 8.36% as of September 24. This is twice the general inflation rate, but it is still bearable. The problem is that not all of them receive support from the state. Gas stations that are not affiliated with oil companies and do not receive fuel directly from them are forced to buy it on the exchange, where prices are already close to retail prices. And this puts them in a difficult position - they are forced to stop buying, because for them gasoline on the exchange is too expensive. Otherwise, they would sell gasoline at a loss, as the difference between the wholesale and retail price no longer covers their costs.
How does the fuel shortage affect the operation of gas stations?
“What is happening is not a collapse: the problems are caused by the fact that the market is used to operating in a situation where gasoline was abundant and even in surplus“, explains Vakulenko. According to the calculations of the analytical company “OMT-Consult“, from July 28 to September 22, the number of gas stations in Russia decreased by 360 sites. At first glance, it does not seem like much. But a significant part of the closed gas stations operated in individual regions - and the situation there is very tense.
As a result, 12-14% of gas stations are closed in the south of the country, and in the Crimea and Sevastopol annexed by Russia - half. According to data from “OMT-Consult“, the regions of the Far East are in the risk zone. In other regions, gas stations are operating, but with disruptions in gasoline supplies.
How the authorities are trying to deal with the crisis
The embargo on fuel exports from the country was initially supposed to last until August 31, but was then extended - for now, until the end of 2025. In addition, Russia began to buy more gasoline from Belarus. But these measures failed to quell the crisis. According to “Kommersant“ Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has proposed that the government remove duties on imports from China, South Korea and Singapore in order to ensure more supplies from these countries as well.
Another initiative envisages allowing manufacturers to use monomethylaniline, an octane-boosting additive that allows gasoline to be produced from low-quality raw materials. In 2016, Russia banned its use, joining European environmental requirements for emissions. However, it is unclear whether these measures will have the necessary effect if Ukrainian drone strikes continue. In some oil refineries, according to Sergei Vakulenko, “there is no solid ground left”. Ultimately, he believes, the Russian authorities may be forced to make a difficult decision - to try to negotiate with Ukraine for a mutual cessation of strikes on energy facilities.
Author: Oleg Khokhlov