Russia is accelerating the creation of information and psychological conditions — "Phase 0" of its campaign to prepare for a possible future war with NATO. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said on October 6 that Britain is planning a group of pro-Ukrainian Russians fighting for Ukraine to carry out an attack on a Ukrainian navy ship or a foreign civilian ship in a European port.
This is according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The saboteurs will claim to have acted on orders from Moscow and that London plans to equip the group with Chinese-made underwater equipment. The aim is to accuse Beijing of supporting Russian aggression against Ukraine. The claim follows similar “false flag” claims against countries such as Poland, Moldova and Serbia. The SVR has been issuing such statements with increasing frequency in recent weeks, representing a new, coordinated pattern of activity.
Russia appears to be conducting coordinated preparations as part of a phase of creating physical and psychological conditions for military contingencies. In recent years, the country has engaged in a variety of overt and covert attacks on NATO countries, including sabotage missions, electronic warfare jamming, GPS jamming and arson.
Russia dramatically increased these attacks on NATO countries in the final weeks of the fall of 2025 — mostly through drone incursions into the alliance’s airspace.
This pattern of organized activity suggests that Russia has entered the first phase of preparations — “Phase 0“ — to move to a higher level of warfare than the one it is currently engaged in, such as a future war between NATO and Russia. ISW does not currently assess whether the Kremlin has decided to engage in such a higher level of conflict or how soon it might do so. Russia is already taking long-term actions that ISW believes may be part of preparations for a future war between NATO and Russia — such as restructuring military districts along its western border and building bases near Finland.
ISW has seen no indications that Russia is actively preparing for an immediate conflict with NATO at this time.
Overt and covert attacks, as well as false flag allegations, serve multiple purposes for Moscow — both internationally and domestically. Russia seeks to sow fear among the European population and undermine NATO resolve. The wide range of types and locations of attacks and false flags is intended to create a perception that the threat of violence is widespread in Europe. Moscow is using fear to gain concessions in the war in Ukraine and in a potential future confrontation with NATO.
Russia is trying to get Europeans to reduce their support for Ukraine for fear that continued aid will lead to new Russian attacks. It is also seeking to get Europe to slow down or stop its efforts to strengthen its defenses, fearing Russian provocations.
Meanwhile, European authorities continue to report sightings of drones in the continent's airspace. Norwegian authorities reported a possible sighting of unidentified drones over Oslo's Gardermoen International Airport on the night of October 5-6. The Norwegian Eastern Police District reported that a pilot and other witnesses had spotted between three and five drones.
Airport authorities delayed several landings and temporarily closed the airport after the sightings. Norwegian law enforcement has not yet confirmed the incident or attributed the event to a specific actor.
German authorities have blamed Russia for recent drone flights over Munich Airport. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on October 5 that he “presumes” that Russia was behind “most” of the flights, which forced German authorities to close the airport on the nights of October 2-3 and October 3-4.
Merz said the alleged Russian drone incursions were intelligence and psychological in nature — their aim was to spread fear among the German population.