The last few days have been restless. Munich airport was on alert twice in a row due to drones. First on the eve of October 3, the holiday of German reunification, and then at the end of Oktoberfest - Germany's largest folk festival. This is hardly a coincidence, and rather everything was well planned. And it worked: the alarm settled in the minds of many people.
Germany and Europe are once again convinced of how vulnerable their critical infrastructure is and how easily it can be disabled. Copenhagen, Oslo, Munich - ordinary drones are capable of paralyzing the most complex systems with minimal cost. The same applies to the recent attacks on the IT infrastructure of airports in London, Brussels and Berlin. In the German capital, it took two weeks to eliminate the consequences.
Elements of the hybrid war waged by Russia
It is still not clear who is behind the latest attacks. But the sequence of events suggests certain thoughts: first Russian drones over Poland, then military aircraft over Estonia, and now "civilian" drones over European airports. In this case, there is evidence from Denmark that the drones may have been launched from a ship of the Russian "shadow fleet" in the Baltic Sea. Who is behind the attacks on the IT systems of the airports is also not clear – as with the drones in the sky over Munich.
In the era of hybrid warfare, unmarked drones can be launched from anywhere and controlled remotely. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has already announced that, according to available data, Russia is behind this.
At almost the same time, Vladimir Putin took part in the Valdai discussion forum in Sochi. When asked if he was behind these attacks, the Russian president only waved his hand as if he had been caught off guard, then said with a smile: "I won't do it again". But this was not an admission of guilt, but rather a mockery, an outburst of gloating about how helpless Europeans really are in the face of this threat.
Even before the attacks on Munich airport, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that "we are not in a state of war, but we are no longer living in peace". Merz saying these words out loud is new, but it was probably long overdue.
A new phase of Russian hybrid warfare after the Alaskan meeting
The past two months have changed a lot. The hybrid escalation of recent weeks in Europe is a continuation of the Alaskan meeting. There, President Trump expressed his willingness to accept many of Putin's positions, hoping that the Russian president would make concessions and end the war against Ukraine. But Trump's concessions achieved exactly the opposite: Putin not only intensified the strikes against Ukraine, but also intensified hybrid provocations in Europe. For him, concessions from the enemy have always been a sign of weakness - and an invitation for the next strike.
As for Merz's warning that "we are not at war, but we are no longer at peace" - it is aimed not so much at the outside world as at German society: the country is facing external threats and must rethink the foundations of its security.
Restraint requires determination
In the foreign policy context, however, the German Chancellor's words seem to come to the aid of Russian propaganda. From the very beginning, Putin justified the invasion of Ukraine with the "threat from NATO". Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated from the rostrum of the UN General Assembly that the restoration of German military potential is a worrying signal, since Germany is once again striving to "subjugate all of Europe - like Hitler once did". The dangerous spiral of accusations continues to unfold: the Kremlin is just waiting for a convenient opportunity to attribute to Germany aggressive goals that do not exist in reality.
Yes, the drone attacks are a test for the West. These unmarked drones, launched from apparently non-military bases, are intended to test our reaction. But we should not give them more importance than they deserve. Is it really that difficult to shoot them down? In this case, Russia cannot claim to be under attack, as it did with fighter jets. Incidents in areas of sensitive civilian infrastructure could be resolved by military means - and that would put an end to them.
But it is not that simple. By law, only the police are allowed to shoot down drones in Germany, but they do not have the necessary technical means. And the Bundeswehr, which is technically capable of doing so, has no legal basis for doing so. The fact that the German government is now discussing who should do this is completely absurd.
I can imagine Putin and Lavrov watching this from the sidelines and rubbing their hands in satisfaction. Of course he "won't do it again". Let's see what the next move will be.
Author: Dirk Emmerich