The Wall Street Journal: Tehran is exporting much more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war

Iran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, demonstrating that it has control over the strategic waterway that is closed to other oil producers in the region, writes The Wall Street Journal, quoted by Focus.

While oil producers from Arab Gulf countries, from Saudi Arabia to Iraq, reduce production and fight for new routes that bypass the strait, Iran continues to operate as usual, according to data from tanker tracking company Kpler.

According to Kpler, since the war began on February 28, seven oil tankers have loaded oil off the coast of Iran. At least two of the most recent cargoes have sailed from the Persian Gulf, Kpler reported.

Over the past six days, oil tankers have loaded an average of 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil per day, more than the 2 million barrels per day Iran exported in February, according to Kpler data.

Iran’s export levels can fluctuate from week to week, but the recent increase shows that, unlike other producers, its supplies are not being hampered and that China has not lost its appetite for Tehran’s crude.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to attack any ship trying to pass through the strait since the United States and Israel launched airstrikes at the start of the conflict, driving away ships carrying oil and goods between the rest of the world and the Persian Gulf, where about a third of the world’s oil production takes place. Iran has fired drones and missiles at Gulf Arab oil producers and warned it would set ships on fire as they passed through the strait.

The crisis has raised fears that a doomsday scenario will eventually come true, with millions of barrels of oil leaving the market every day. Markets have been volatile in recent days, with oil prices reaching nearly $120 a barrel on Monday before falling below $80 a barrel on Tuesday after President Trump said the war would end “very soon”.

If the strait remains blocked for two weeks, Gulf oil supplies could be cut by about 3.8 million barrels a day, according to JPMorgan, more than 3% of global production.

According to Kpler data, much of the Iranian oil passing through or heading to the strait appears to be destined for China, on tankers that are part of the so-called “ghost fleet”. These are old tankers used by Iran and Russia, often sanctioned by the US, to secretly transport crude oil.

"Almost all the ships that pass through the strait are linked to Iran or China", said Christopher Long, head of intelligence at British maritime security firm Neptune P2P Group.

"We advise all carriers not to cross", he warned.


Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, said only a military escort, a truce between the US and Israel or an Iranian capitulation would prompt carriers to resume transit. He said he expected exports to resume gradually, often while it was still dark.

Last week, Trump announced plans to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but so far no such assistance has been provided.

Ali Reza Tangsiri, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, has warned against such escorts.

"Any passage by the US Navy and its allies will be stopped by Iran's network of missiles and suicide drones," he said in an article in X.

Since the war began, about 15 ships have passed through the strait, most of them from a shadowy fleet carrying Iranian oil to China and India, according to Lloyds List Intelligence. Many of them are small Chinese tankers that advertise their presence and Revolutionary Guard origins through loudspeakers and shortwave radios.

“We are a Chinese ship. We are passing through your area; we are friendly,“ the Chinese ships transmit in English to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The messages can be monitored by other ships and were intercepted by the American newspaper.

Kpler reported that a tanker called the Skywave, bound for China, took oil last week from Iran's Kharg Island, a small enclave in the far northwest of the Persian Gulf, from where most of Iran's crude is shipped.

The ship is owned by an Indian shell company sanctioned by the US last year as part of a network it says directly funded Iran's armed forces through billions of dollars in oil sales.

On Tuesday, the "Skywave", flying a false flag of the Comoros, was close to passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Marine Traffic.

Another ship bound for China, the "Cume", is owned by a US-sanctioned entity in Dubai and is flying a false flag of Guyana, according to the European Union's Equasis database. It loaded 2 million barrels of Iranian crude oil on February 19, passed through the Strait of Hormuz last week and is currently in the Gulf of Oman, according to Kpler.

The owners of the Skywave and Cume did not respond to requests for comment.

"SHUN PING", another sanctioned ship owned by a company based in Shandong, China, that usually exports to that country, loaded 600,000 barrels of oil from Kharg and is also in the Gulf of Oman. The owner of the "SHUN PING" could not be located.

The decision by the “ghost fleet“ tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz remains a calculated gamble, even if they are carrying Iranian oil. At least two tankers from the “ghost” flotilla have been hit by Iran so far.

While Iran is transporting oil, other operators are struggling.

Danish container carrier AP Moller-Maersk has 10 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. Maersk said it would take at least a week to 10 days to resume normal operations if a ceasefire is reached.

“We will not put our colleagues at risk,” Vincent Clerk, Maersk's chief executive, told the Journal.