Turkey could cover more than half of its natural gas needs by the end of 2028 by increasing its own production and sharply increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, Reuters reports. The change would mean a serious blow to Russia and Iran, which still rely on the Turkish market as one of the last large ones in Europe.
Washington has long urged its allies, including NATO member Turkey, to limit their energy ties with Moscow and Tehran. At a White House meeting on September 25, President Donald Trump urged Recep Tayyip Erdogan to stop buying Russian gas, citing American supplies as a more reliable alternative.
According to energy analysts, diversifying supplies would strengthen Ankara's energy security and help its ambition to become a regional gas hub. Turkey's plan is to use Russian and Iranian gas mainly for domestic consumption, while re-exporting its own production and imported LNG to Europe.
Russia remains Turkey's main natural gas supplier, but its share has fallen from more than 60% two decades ago to 37% in the first half of 2025. Most European countries have stopped importing Russian gas since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The two main Russian contracts - the Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines - are - for a total of 22 billion cubic meters per year, are close to expiring, and the contract with Iran for 10 billion cubic meters ends in mid-2026. Turkey is likely to renew some of these agreements, but under more flexible terms and smaller volumes to increase the diversity of its sources, notes energy policy expert Sohbet Karbuz.
State company TPAO is already increasing production from local fields in the Black Sea, while state and private operators are expanding liquefied gas terminals to import larger quantities from the United States and Algeria. According to calculations by "Reuters", domestic production and contracted LNG supplies will reach 26 billion cubic meters per year from 2028, up from 15 billion this year. This would cover more than half of Turkey’s annual consumption, which amounts to about 53 billion cubic meters.
To support this strategy, Ankara has already signed agreements for the supply of US LNG worth $43 billion, including a 20-year contract with Mercuria signed in September. Turkey has 58 billion cubic meters of LNG import capacity per year, enough to meet its entire domestic demand.
However, Russian gas continues to flow at full capacity, and the Kremlin has said that energy cooperation with Ankara remains stable. According to Alexey Belogoriev of the Moscow Institute of Energy and Finance, Turkey could theoretically stop importing from Russia within two to three years, but it is unlikely to do so, as "Russian gas remains cheaper and allows BOTAS to put pressure on other suppliers."
Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said in an interview that Turkey should take advantage of all available sources - Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan and the United States, but noted that American LNG is more competitive in price.
Experts believe that after Europe completely bans Russian energy imports by 2028, Turkey could consume Russian and Iranian gas domestically and export its own and imported LNG to the EU, becoming a key regional intermediary.
At the same time, Ankara maintains deep economic ties with Moscow - the Russian company "Rosatom" is building Turkey's first nuclear power plant, "Akkuyu", and Russia remains the leading supplier of crude oil and diesel to the Turkish market.