NATO currently does not have effective and not too expensive air defense means with which to shoot down cheap Russian drones. The solution to this problem may come from the Baltic states. Why is that?
What would happen if Russia sent hundreds of drones into NATO airspace? What has long been a reality in Ukraine could happen elsewhere. And EU and NATO countries should be prepared for such a scenario – especially after a series of recent Russian provocations.
Tomas Jermalavicius, a researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security in the Estonian capital Tallinn, says that NATO radars often do not “see” approaching drones because they fly very low. "In addition, we have very limited means to shoot them down, so the costs often do not justify the goal," he told DW, recalling in this regard how missiles worth half a million dollars were recently used in Poland against drones costing no more than $50,000.
The experience of start-up companies from the Baltic countries
Military experts fear that this disproportion could harm NATO's air defense in the event of war. The experience of some newly established companies in the Baltic states could be of great help here, believes Jermalavicius. They could occupy a central place in anti-drone defense strategies. The issue is of particular importance, as up to 80 percent of casualties in modern warfare are now caused by drone attacks.
“Startups are disrupting the sluggish patterns that our public procurement systems and major defense industry players have imposed for decades,“ he says.
Tomás Järmalavicius, a researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security in the Estonian capitalPhoto: ICDS
One of these startups is the Estonian “Frankenburg Technologies“ from Tallinn, which also has offices in the UK, Ukraine, Latvia and Lithuania. In less than a year, it has developed a prototype air defense platform that the company's CEO Krusti Salm presents as a solution to what he sees as “the biggest vulnerability” NATO.
“Everything Russia is firing at Ukraine and potentially at targets in Europe is disproportionately cheaper than our means of countering it“, he told DW.
Drone and robotics companies are attracting significant capital
According to Salm, the “Frankenburg“ system should be ten times cheaper than existing short-range air defense interceptors, such as the American Sidewinders. “Frankenburg Technologies“ currently has one NATO customer and hopes to soon start producing hundreds of air defense missiles per week with the help of an investment of 4 million euros. According to the British business newspaper “Financial Times“ startups specializing in drones and robotics now attract more than half of all venture capital in the European defense sector.
Perhaps it is no surprise that three of the four European defense startups with a "unicorn" market valuation (of over 1 billion euros) are drone manufacturers - among them Germany's "Helsing" and "Quantum Systems", as well as Portugal's "Tekever". While Western militaries are clearly interested in cost-effective solutions like Frankenburg Technologies, the more cautious have traditionally been wary of investing in technologies that are largely unproven.
"They want to buy a finished product with proven long-term support," says Lithuanian Ritis Mikalauskas, CEO of startup Harlequin Defense.
Jermalavicius believes that the caution is also due to uncertainty about the viability of startups. “If I buy a lot of products from a startup and it goes bankrupt in two years, who will service the products, supply spare parts and upgrade them?“.
Cost-effective solutions are needed
In addition, drone startups are sprouting like mushrooms after rain, raising the question of whether demand in Europe will be high enough to justify their existence. In Germany, the Bundeswehr plans to acquire a modest 8,300 drones by the end of this decade, which is significantly less than some other NATO countries.
Kaspar Goering, co-founder of “DarkStar“, believes that the concerns are unfounded. “Estonia has a multi-year order for 400 million euros for munitions and drones. "And drone-related tenders are on the rise across the EU," he tells DW.
NATO's eastern flank countries, such as Estonia, have begun to attract startups, including Frankenburg Technologies, to build a so-called "drone wall." The EU initiative is expected to include radars, acoustic sensors, mobile cameras, jammers and drone interceptors.
Frankenburg Technologies, as well as a number of Western startups, have established ties with Ukrainian front-line units, allowing them to respond more quickly and accurately to new needs. "There is not a single aspect of Frankenburg's interceptor missiles that has not been influenced by information from the battlefield in Ukraine," says the company's CEO, Krusti Salm.